'Probability forecast' presentation slideshows

Probabilistic Prediction

Probabilistic Prediction. Cliff Mass University of Washington. Uncertainty in Forecasting. Most numerical weather prediction (NWP) today and most forecast products reflect a deterministic approach.

792 views • 67 slides

Probabilistic Prediction

Probabilistic Prediction. Cliff Mass University of Washington. Uncertainty in Forecasting. Most numerical weather prediction (NWP) today and most forecast products reflect a deterministic approach.

673 views • 67 slides

Ensembles and Probabilistic Prediction

Ensembles and Probabilistic Prediction. Uncertainty in Forecasting. All of the model forecasts I have talked about reflect a deterministic approach.

591 views • 59 slides

Verification of ensemble systems

Verification of ensemble systems. Chiara Marsigli ARPA-SIM. Deterministic forecasts. Event E (dichotomous event) e.g.: the precipitation cumulated over 24 hours at a given location (raingauge, radar pixel, hydrological basin, area) exceeds 20 mm. no o(E) = 0. yes o(E) = 1.

527 views • 44 slides

Forecasting Uncertainty Met Office

Forecasting Uncertainty Met Office. Ewen McCallum Chief Meteorologist. Met Office - Exeter. Forecasting the weather. Worldwide Observations Satellite, land, ship, aircraft, radar, radiosonde, drifting buoy. Sources of Observation. Things you may not know about the Met Office. Each day:

569 views • 40 slides

Probabilistic Prediction

Probabilistic Prediction. Uncertainty in Forecasting. All of the model forecasts I have talked about reflect a deterministic approach.

507 views • 39 slides

Development and Application of Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) in NCEP Operations

Development and Application of Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) in NCEP Operations. Youlong Xia 1,2 , Michael B. Ek 1 , Jesse Meng 1,2 , Helin Wei 1,2 , Rongqian Yang 1,2 , and Jiarui Dong 1,2. 1 Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)

489 views • 37 slides

Steve Weygandt Stan Benjamin Forecast Systems Laboratory NOAA

Hourly RUC Convective Probability Forecasts using Ensembles and Radar Assimilation. Steve Weygandt Stan Benjamin Forecast Systems Laboratory NOAA. AUTOMATED CONVECTIVE WEATHER GUIDANCE. PRESENT 0-2 h forecasts from radar extrapolation with growth and decay (nowcasting techniques)

490 views • 37 slides

Steve Weygandt Stan Benjamin Forecast Systems Laboratory NOAA

Hourly RUC Convective Probability Forecasts using Ensembles and Radar Assimilation. Steve Weygandt Stan Benjamin Forecast Systems Laboratory NOAA. AUTOMATED CONVECTIVE WEATHER GUIDANCE. PRESENT 0-2 h forecasts from radar extrapolation with growth and decay (nowcasting techniques)

461 views • 37 slides

Probabilistic Prediction

Probabilistic Prediction. Uncertainty in Forecasting. All of the model forecasts I have talked about reflect a deterministic approach.

460 views • 32 slides

Probability Forecasts and Verification

Probability Forecasts and Verification. Uncertainty. Forecasts have uncertainty that should be taken into account: Observational Uncertainty (initial conditions)

368 views • 30 slides

Probability Forecasts and Verification

Probability Forecasts and Verification. Uncertainty. Forecasts have uncertainty that should be taken into account: Observational Uncertainty (initial conditions)

375 views • 30 slides

What is a good ensemble forecast? Chris Ferro University of Exeter, UK

347 views • 21 slides

Verification of ensemble systems

Verification of ensemble systems. Chiara Marsigli ARPA-SIMC. Deterministic forecasts. Event E e.g.: the precipitation cumulated over 24 hours at a given location (raingauge, radar pixel, hydrological basin, area) exceeds 20 mm. no o(E) = 0. yes o(E) = 1.

288 views • 18 slides

Jackie Shafer Scitor Corporation

269 views • 15 slides

THE CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU REGIONAL CLIMATE DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR JFM 2011

THE CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU REGIONAL CLIMATE DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR JFM 2011. HUI-LING WU and CHIH-HUI SHIAO. Introduction. CWB Regional Climate Dynamical Downscaling Forecast - The National Centers for Environmental Prediction regional spectral model (NCEP/RSM)

233 views • 15 slides