'Ensemble spread' presentation slideshows

Advanced Study Program Research Review

Advanced Study Program Research Review. Tom Hopson April 6, 2007. Overview:. I. Operational Bangladesh Flood Forecasting 1. Background of project 2. Precipitation inputs: ECMWF ensemble forecasts and satellite rainfall corrections 3. Seasonal Forecasts 4. Brahmaputra Pilot programs

470 views • 41 slides

Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting with the Coupled GFS-Noah Modeling System

Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting with the Coupled GFS-Noah Modeling System. Dingchen Hou*, Kenneth Mitchell, Zoltan Toth, Dag Lohmann** and Helin Wei* Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP/NOAA 5200 Auth Road Camp Springs, MD 20746 * EMC/NCEP/NOAA and SAIC ** Risk Management Solution Ltd. UK

565 views • 40 slides

ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEL ERRORS

ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEL ERRORS. Hong Li Eugenia Kalnay. If we assume a perfect model, we can grossly underestimate the errors. imperfect model (obs from NCEP- NCAR Reanalysis NNR). ~Perfect model. We compare several methods to handle model errors. imperfect model

492 views • 39 slides

The ECMWF Seasonal Forecast System-3

The ECMWF Seasonal Forecast System-3. Magdalena A. Balmaseda Franco Molteni,Tim Stockdale Laura Ferranti, Paco Doblas-Reyes, Frederic Vitart European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, U.K. Overview. Introduction to Seasonal Forecasts

564 views • 33 slides

A Loosely Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Ensemble Assimilation System.

A Loosely Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Ensemble Assimilation System. Tim Hoar, Nancy Collins, Kevin Raeder, Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR Institute for Math Applied to Geophysics Data Assimilation Research Section.

384 views • 26 slides

Model ensembles for the simulation of air quality over Europe

409 views • 24 slides

Report from GIFS-TIGGE working group

Report from GIFS-TIGGE working group. Richard Swinbank, and Young-Youn Park, with thanks to the GIFS-TIGGE working group, THORPEX IPO and other colleagues. Presentation for WWRP/JSC5, April 2012. TIGGE and GIFS. Working Group TIGGE TIGGE archive status TIGGE research

376 views • 24 slides

Effects of Grid Resolution and Perturbations in Meteorology and Emissions on Air Quality Simulations Over the Greater Ne

Effects of Grid Resolution and Perturbations in Meteorology and Emissions on Air Quality Simulations Over the Greater New York City Region.

362 views • 23 slides

Model error issues: microphysics errors

Model error issues: microphysics errors. 10/18/2011 Youngsun Jung and Ming Xue CAPS/OU with help from Tim Supinie. Source of errors . Observation error: Non- Gaussianity , inaccurate observations error variance, none-zero observation error correlation, etc. Observation operator error

377 views • 23 slides

Lorenz 1963 Multi-model Ensemble Test-bed

Christine Johnson NAEFS Teleconference September 2006. Lorenz 1963 Multi-model Ensemble Test-bed. Research Aim. The Met Office is currently developing a real-time multi-model ensemble using the TIGGE data. Which methods should be used to calibrate and combine the multi-model ensemble?

331 views • 22 slides

European Convective-Scale EPS

330 views • 17 slides

Dynamical Forecasting 2

298 views • 17 slides

Towards Improving Coupled Climate Model Using EnKF Parameter Optimization

Towards Improving Coupled Climate Model Using EnKF Parameter Optimization. Zhengyu Liu 1 , Shaoqing Zhang 2 , Yun Liu 1 R. Jacob 3 , Xinrong Wu 4 , Xuefeng Zhang 4 , Feiyu Lu 1. 1. Univ. Wisconsin-Madison 2. GFDL/NOAA, USA 3. ANL/DOE 4. NMDIS/SOA, China.

278 views • 15 slides

Uncertainty and regional air quality model diversity: what do we learn from model ensembles?

320 views • 15 slides

Wind power prediction risk indices based on numerical weather prediction ensembles

European Wind Energy Conference 2010, Warsaw, Poland. Wind power prediction risk indices based on numerical weather prediction ensembles. Erik Holmgren , Nils Siebert, George Kariniotakis erik.holmgren@sserenewables.com, nils.siebert@mines-paristech.fr Renewable Energies Team

268 views • 15 slides

NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT TRACK AROUND HURRICANE IVAN.

ETKF PLANNED FLIGHT. NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT TRACK AROUND HURRICANE IVAN. ACTUAL G-IV FLIGHT. Testing the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter strategy for targeted observations during the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season (JHT 03-05). Dr Sharanya J. Majumdar (University of Miami)

314 views • 14 slides

Recent changes in the NCEP global ensemble forecast system

Recent changes in the NCEP global ensemble forecast system. Yuejian Zhu, Zoltan Toth, Richard Wobus*, and Lacey Holland* EMC/NCEP *SAIC at NCEP September 19 2003 http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/ Acknowledgements: H.-L. Pan, S. Lord, D. Michaud, and T. Marchok. Contents.

289 views • 13 slides

Junjie Liu and Eugenia Kalnay July 13th, 2007

The application of ensemble Kalman filter in adaptive observation and information content estimation studies. Junjie Liu and Eugenia Kalnay July 13th, 2007. Question to address in adaptive observation study. Adaptive observation: temporarily adjust observation locations

291 views • 12 slides

GMAO’s Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts & Potential contributions to MME Forecasts

GMAO’s Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts & Potential contributions to MME Forecasts. Michele Rienecker, Randy Koster , Siegfried Schubert Christian Keppenne, Rolf Reichle, Shu-Chih Yang CTB SAB Meeting August 28, 2007. Max Suarez Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO).

229 views • 11 slides

PSU realtime ensemble with ARW-EnKF

3 domains (40.5, 13.5&4.5km), 60-member ensemble, assimilate TDR Vr. PSU realtime ensemble with ARW-EnKF.

137 views • 7 slides