Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years

1. Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years A presentation to: The National Science Foundation Facilities Workshop Alexander E. MacDonald Earth System Research Laboratory – Director DAA – OAR LCI September 24, 2007 Boulder, Colorado

2. Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

3. The quality of a prediction depends first on scientific study to understand the physical processes. Then – and only then – it can be correctly incorporated into analysis and prediction models.

4. Approach 1. Take the right observations. 2. Understand the processes (physical or chemical). 3. Incorporate into prediction models. 4. Change policy based on better knowledge.

5. Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

6. Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

7. 6 6 6 9 9 9 HWIND Aerosonde Plots/Ophelia 16 Aug, 2005 Satellite image at time of second closest approach of Aerosonde to wind center and just after WP-3D SFMR penetration across the eye.

9. New NSF assets such as HIAPER can improve our understanding of storm environments.

10. Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

11. Determine the Fate of the Arctic Ocean Ice ARCTIC ICE COLLAPSE? In 2007, the Arctic ocean ice decreased to its lowest ever coverage – a full 15% less.

12. Permafrost (CCSM) Sept. sea-ice (CCSM) Sept. sea-ice (Observed) The Community Climate Model shows the summer ice to be bistable, with a rapid transition from ice to ice-free in the 21st century. (M. Holland et al, 2006)

13. SHEBA 1998: Scientists spend a year on the Arctic Ocean ice . . .

14. Satellite Validation Nine-year comparison of monthly cloud fractions form surface, TOVS and AVHRR on NOAA satellites And MODIS on NASA satellites over Barrow, Alaska Detailed resolved cloud microphysics/optical properties Aerosol Cloud Interactions Arctic clouds may provide a warm blanket . . . Cloud Forcing of Surface Radiation Budgets

15. In the NOAA Unmanned Aircraft Systems program, we propose to fly over the Arctic ice at low and high levels to measure the Arctic energy balance.

16. Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

17. A rapid melt of Arctic ocean ice could increase the rate of Greenland ice melt. This chart from Overpeck shows a 2 meter sea level rise in red.

18. NOAA would like to work with NSF to make Summit Greenland a full year-round observatory for carbon and other science.

19. Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

20. Colorado River Basin Overview • 7 States, 2 Nations • Fastest Growing Part of the U.S. • Over 1,450 miles in length • Basin makes up about 8% of total U.S. lands • Highly variable Natural Flow which averages 15 MAF • Irrigates 3.5 million acres • Very Complicated Legal Environment Source:Reclamation

21. Population Growth in the Colorado River Basin: 1900 – 2000 Currently: 50+ Million

22. Trends in Temperature Units in Days Mote, et. al, 2005 Regonda, et. al, 2005 Stuff and m

23. Hoerling and Eischeid Eye-Opening Results Another 2° C Projected to 2050 1° C since 1970 Average Flow = ~5maf by 2050 Article at: wwa.colorado.edu/resources/climate_change.htmlChristensen et al and Wolter/Doesken Colorado Temps as well

24. Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

26. Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

27. Past and present variability of marine pH. Future predictions for years shown on the right-hand side of the figure are model-derived values based on IPCC mean scenarios. From Pearson and Palmer adapted by Turley et al. and from the Eur-Oceans Fact Sheet No. 7, "Ocean Acidification - the other half of the CO2 problem", May 2007 .

28. System Description: A new generation of moored buoys is proposed: Platform and Instrumentation for Continuous Ocean Observation “PICO” • Inexpensive • Moored (Eulerian) • Low Maintenance (3 year service) • Easy deployment • Durable • Industrial design plan • Multipurpose ( Crawlers with a variety of sensors that go up and down the taut line that extends to the bottom of the ocean) • Concept from PMEL

29. NSF’s Ocean Observatories are a crucial part of IOOS and the observational basis for understanding and predicting a changing ocean.

30. Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

31. Will rising temperatures release large stores of high-latitude carbon? CARBON: Humankind’s great 21st century challenge.

32. CARBON TRACKER Developed by ESRL/GMD

33. "The struggle of today, is not altogether for today -- it is for a vast future also. " --From the December 3, 1861 Message to Congress

34. Earth Systems Research Laboratory Mission: “To observe and understand the earth system and to . . . advance NOAA’s environmental information and service on global-to-local scale.”