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Regional Climate Change Scenario over East Asia

Regional Climate Change Scenario over East Asia. 2003 June Trieste, ICTP RegCM Workshop Won-Tae Kwon Meteorological Research Institute, Korea.

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Regional Climate Change Scenario over East Asia

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  1. Regional Climate Change Scenario over East Asia 2003 June Trieste, ICTP RegCM Workshop Won-Tae Kwon Meteorological Research Institute, Korea

  2. We are interested in the impacts of future climate change in KoreaClimate Change Simulation with CGCM Regional Climate Change Scenario - dynamical downscaling - statistical adjustment

  3. Issues we need to consider…. • Need for impact assessment and adaptation on future climate change for various socio-economic and natural sectors for the sustainable development • Korea is located at the eastern coast of the largest continent of the earth – large climate variability • Meso-scale complex topography and high population density • Most people want to hear about what will happen in their own back yards • Need for high-resolution regional climate information for impact study

  4. Coupled Climate Model ECHO-G ECHAM4 T30/L19 dt = 30 minute Roeckner et al. 1996, MPI • MPI M&D* coupled climate model - AGCM: ECHAM4 T30 (3.75) - OGCM: HOPE-G T42 (2.8 ) (0.5  at 10S~10N) sea ice model included - Coupler: OASIS • Flux corrections • - annual mean heat and • fresh-water flux correction • - no momentum flux correction 10 fluxes OASIS dt = 1 day Valcke et al. 2000, CERFACS 4 surface conditions HOPE-G T42 + equ. ref. /L20 dt = 2 hours Wolff et al. 1997, DKRZ *MPI M&D: Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology Models and Data Group

  5. ECHO-G 1000-year Control Simulations • Performed at MPI M&D, Germany • Present day values (1990) for GHG concentrations • Stable global mean surface temperature and thermohaline circulation • ENSO - similar pattern to observed • - 2-year period dominant (Legutke and Cubasch, 2001) Annual mean T2m and precipitation rate (red line: 11-yr moving average)

  6. ECHO-G SRES A2, B2 scenario simulations • Performed at METRI/KMA, Korea • Greenhouse gases only - CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs etc • - 1860~1990: observed • - 1990~2100: SRES scenarios • SRES updated scenarios • - A2: pessimistic scenario • (CO2 820 ppmv by 2100) • - B2: optimistic scenario • (CO2 610 ppmv by 2100) A2 B2 GHGs scenarios for 1860-2100

  7. A2 A2 B2 B2 ECHO-GScenario Simulation Results (numbers are 2090s mean) Temperature(℃) Precipitation (%) 4.6 4.4 Global 3.0 2.8 6.5 10.5 East Asia 4.5 6.0

  8. 2050s Climate Change Patterns: A2 Temperature(℃) Precipitation (%) Global East Asia

  9. 2050s Climate Change Patterns: B2 Temperature(℃) Precipitation (%) Global East Asia

  10. Seasonal Projection over East Asia Temperature(℃) Precipitation (%) DJF MAM JJA SON A2-B2: Mitigation effect

  11. Temperature (℃) Precipitation (%) A2 B2 Climate Change Projection over East Asia (Multi-Model Ensemble)

  12. 경북 영천 자양면 충효리 19th C 2002 Check point 100km 0 Distribution of Phyllostachys 경북 예천 풍양면 와룡리 Northern limit of Bamboo habitation

  13. 400 km resolution 27km resolution TOPOGRAPHY (M)

  14. ECAHM4/HOPE-G (spectral data) CD-Rom Regional Climate Model (MM5) Initial Condition ( p-level grid data) After post process Horizontal, vertical interpolation detailed topography I.C B.C INTERPB

  15. UPS Raid storage sever 16 nodes ( dual CPU ) cluster NAS storage sever 10/100 switch hub Myrinet hub Monitoring system Electrometer Myrinet Ethernet Computing Resources: HPC CLUSTER (ENVICOM) 15 cpu hours for 1 year integration ! = 1 week for 10 year integration ! · CPU - AMD MP2000+ 16Node ( 32 CPUs ) · MEMORY - ECC Registered DDR Ram 2 GB · Myrinet - optical cable & switch, 2U high, 3-slot enclosure for switch, 16 ports · NAS - 1.8 TB, Network attached Storage, SCSI raid Storage

  16. Orography of regional model (Zmm5) Orography of global model (bilinear interpolation, Zecham) Orography Blending (Zbln)

  17. Seasonal mean 2m air Temp. for 30 yrs MM5 ECHO-G Result of Dynamic Downscaling (2001-2030)

  18. Monthly mean 2m air Temperature ECHAM4/HOPE-G: y = 0.0018x + 12.531 ECHAM4/HOPE-G MM5 MM5: y = 0.0059x + 7.2772 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

  19. [Seasonal mean precipitation for 30 yrs] MM5 ECHO-G

  20. Monthly mean precipitation 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

  21. Dynamic Downscaling Progress 1860 1950 2000 2030 2100 A2-G Control Finished (2002) In Progress (2003)

  22. We provide regional climate information with dynamic downscaling. Does it good enough for assessment studies with confidence?

  23. [G2G Pilot transfer function] RCM ANAL EOFA RCM C_RCM GRID DATA CORRECTION Significant Eigen Mode REGA Eigen Mode Eigen Mode TCRCM = f(TCANAL) Transfer Function • Transfer function using statistical method • 70% of RMS error were reduced

  24. TC1 , TC2 in RCM (red), O_KMA (blue), after adjustment (green)

  25. RMS error of daily mean temperature

  26. Summary • We may be able to provide reasonable future regional climate information for impact assessment studies with combination of dynamic downscaling and statistical adjustment. • Statistical adjustment is successful for temperature, however, we still need more efforts for precipitation because there is no outstanding eigen mode.

  27. Further Thoughts on Unsolved Obstacles • Reduction rate of GCM to RCM – a nested domain? • Understanding the variability of future climate change – mean, range, extreme events, seasonal and local difference, etc. – how can we analyze these issues? • Statistical downscaling of RCM data • Understanding and communication with experts from various sectors – what kind of data they need for impact assessment

  28. Future Plans….. • EHCO run with A2 GHG+Aerosol scenario in 2003 and maybe more later on • Using RegCM3 for the downscaling of EHCO model projections • Sensitivity test and Optimization for East Asia domain • Statistical downscaling (transfer function) for regional scenario

  29. Local climate change scenario (240 years) 100km 0 IDEAS for Future Works  Integrated local climate change assessment Trend Flood/drought Water resource Agriculture Fishery Health Ecosystem Forest Road Tourism Recreation Energy Industry Transportation Construction Economy… Multi-disciplinary efforts

  30. Thank You For Your Attention!

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