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Rural Trends Impacting our Schools

Rural Trends Impacting our Schools. Prepared for the Western Minnesota School District Collaborative Summit. By Benjamin Winchester Coordinator, Data Analysis & Research Center for Small Towns August 9, 2006. Rural Rebound.

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Rural Trends Impacting our Schools

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  1. Rural Trends Impacting our Schools Prepared for the Western Minnesota School District Collaborative Summit By Benjamin Winchester Coordinator, Data Analysis & Research Center for Small Towns August 9, 2006

  2. Rural Rebound • The 1990’s saw a rural population rebound; which totally reversed the outmigration of the 1980’s. • 70% of rural counties grew in population from 1990 to 1999. • But, this growth is largely concentrated in only 40% of rural counties. • 7/8 of these growing counties derived some or all of their increase from in-migration of metro residents. • 61% of rural counties experienced net in-migration between 1990 and 1999. • In fact, between 1990 and 1999, 2.2 million more Americans moved from the city to the country, than the reverse.

  3. Source: Johnson, Kenneth and Calvin Beale, 1999.

  4. More people in our region live outside of city limits than within. Impact: Transportation Costs

  5. Today? Ouch. We can expect migration to urban and regional centers – away from townships and very small towns without an economic base.

  6. Region 4 is used for some of the analysis

  7. Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development

  8. Labor Force Projections Source: Department of Employment and Economic Development 9 County West Central Minnesota Region 4

  9. Includes Regions 1, 2, 4, and 5 Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development

  10. Population Change • General Trends • Recreational Growth • Decline in Ag, Manufacturing counties • Current growth in secondary recreational areas • It’s not if you lost or gained people • It’s what people did you gain or lose?

  11. Percent Change in Age Demographic, 1990-2000 – Region 4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  12. 1990-2000 Change in Population Source: 2000 Census, Region 4

  13. 1990-2000 Change in Population Cohorts If you were 10 years old in 1990, you would be 20 in 2000. Source: 2000 Census, Region 4

  14. Cohort Growth in Collaborative Region Source: Minnesota Department of Education

  15. Total Attendance by Grade in Collaborative Region

  16. Source: Minnesota Department of Education

  17. Source: Scott Monson, Morris Area High School

  18. Source: Scott Monson, Morris Area High School

  19. The Trend • The growth is primarily in the 35 to 44 age group – the in-migration into rural communities is just about equal to that of the out-migration of youth as they finish school. • These people are bringing children aged 10-18 with them.

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