Future Trends Impacting WFI : New Wisdoms

1. Wesfarmers Federation Insurance National Conference Growth Through Wisdom Focus Innovation 27 April 2005 Perth W Australia Future Trends Impacting WFI : New Wisdoms Conference Keynote Speaker Annimac www.annimac.com.au

2. “ Everything that has been standard practice for 5 generations on my family farm is now wrong. ” Great Southern WA crop & sheep farmer, age 38

3. Rate of Change 5 minutes - new technology 5 days - new product or service every day - 1 million new web pages Change we have in one day Our grandparents had in one year Younger means faster

5. Technology e.g. by 2020 70 % types of jobs then do not exist now because 80% technology not yet imagined Driving all Drivers of Change

6. Likely jobs in next 10 years : • Director of Emerging Thought • Chief Zookeeper - of people • Chief Farm Technologist • Creative Undertaker • Agricultural Biotech Adviser • Pasture Programmer • Valuer of Intangible Assets * • Human Interface Manager * • * 2003

7. now Technology not wealth Access Skilling 50 % world popn no phone Gap : Haves - Have Nots

9. Changing Nature of Work Two major trends : Co opitalism Cooperative capitalism Sustainability Development harmony

10. Changing Nature of Work : • Project based Team based • Relationships • One off alliances - consortia • Globally networked • Fast flat skilled decision making • Values drivenQuad Bottom Line • Asia markets

11. Emerging values for Business intergenerational equity leaving our planet to future generations in as good as or better state than it is today sustainable development human development ( financial economic and social ) in harmony with the natural environment eco-footprinting the assessment of our current usage and 'fair share' of global resources

12. Farmer’s paddock Williams Albany Hwy WA March 03

13. Changing Nature of Employment : • Two major trends : • Casualisation • Values driven

14. Changing Nature of Employment : • Contract based : Projects • Part time • Skill based Multi skilling • Employee benefits negotiated • Values driven not money • personal people planet • Global sourcing

16. Aus Small Business Trends ABS 1996 - 2001 Number of small biz in Aus 1,505,924 Income increase over 5 yrs 18.6 % including wages 29.9 % profit up by 13.4 % Number in capital cities 945, 320 only Hobart decreasing Number outside capital cities 611,476 decreasing by 1 %

17. Small biz Highest 5 yr growth outside capital cities : SW Queensland 42.4 % Kimberley WA 41.7 % Outer Adelaide 37.4 % Central W Queensland 31.2 % Decline in total income in 4 Regions : Midlands WA - 1.1 % South Eastern WA - 3.9 % Upper Great Southern WA - 8.8% Northern Sth Australia - 4.8 % Average income grew in all regions

18. ABS Estimates: Ave Annual Growth in Total Income of Small Businesses 1996 to 2001

19. Trends in farm income :

23. Future growth trends - small biz startup : • Domestic services - “ Do it for me ” • home cleaning, maintenance and gardening • healthy prepared meals and home catering • shopping and delivery services • home security systems and patrol services • household waste disposal and recycling • car care • pool cleaning • pet care

25. Start-ups • Community services • travel & tourism • special interest education – leisure & learning • investment  & retirement planning • sports  & recreation • tailored accommodation facilities • home & health care • preventative health & alternative therapies • mobility & companionship services

27. Start-ups • Health & lifestyle • alternative therapies • stress management, relaxation & meditation • personal counselling & self awareness • parenting skills & techniques • public speaking  & social etiquette • career & skills development • image consulting • personal security, self-defence & devices

29. Start-ups • Business services • computer consultancy services • employment placement & staff contracting • accounting & business advisory services • serviced offices  & secretarial support • business planning  & information services • marketing & public relations

31. Start-ups • Tourism & Recreation • ecotourism  & nature based tours • heritage  & nostalgia tours • backpacker tourism • farm-stays • special events e.g. country show days • concert  & sporting events • Major growth : On line e-business

33. Trends in Rural Australia • Farming communities downsizing • Family farms corporatising • Urban encroachment • Ageing farm population • Succession issues : youth issues • Women as farm biz managers • Slow uptake of technology • Slow uptake new knowledge

35. Trends of Climate Change • Forecasters disagree long term • Global warming impacting • Some changes inevitable • Aus second most arid continent • Aus climate highly vulnerable

37. Trends of Climate Change : Aus • Aus climate cyclical - shorter • Aus ecosystems vulnerable to change : • hi risk : coral reefs alpine mangrove wetlands savannahs • tropical forests deserts natural grasslands • Global warming impacting Aus : • increasing carbon dioxide • changing temperatures : hi certainty • changing rainfall : mod certainty

38. Likely impact of climate change 2030 • CO2 to 455 ppm :mostly good •  plant growth & water efficiency • Temperature warming : 2° to 4° C • Rainfall change : mostly not good •  southwest : -20% to +5% •  southeast, Qld : -10% to +5% •  inland : summer or autumn

39. Some Specific Impacts • Wheat : • faster growth less grain filling • high yield lower grain protein • not bread making or pasta grainFruit :esp apples stone fruits southern Aus • less frost damage less chilling • less bud burst lower fruit set • lower yield reduced quality

40. Rainfall change % 20% 0% - 20% Yield response % Temperature increase°C Changing rainfall & temperature impact on wheat production in Australia CSIRO 2001

42. High rainfall Pastures : • NSW Vic : CO2 & warming cancel out • sthn Aus less winter spring rain • less plant production • less animal production • higher temp : dairy cows less milk • Rangelands : delicate diversity threatened • sthn Aus 10% less winter spring rain • less forage less animal production • nthn Aus more summer rain CO2 • more forage poorer quality • nthn sub / tropics move south • natural vegetation unable to adapt

43. Growth in forests : if CO2 doubles with 3°C temp increase > 50% 25 to 50% 0 to 25% -25 to -50% -50 to -25% < -50% No growth

44. Gap widening : Knowledge Haves / have nots Age generations Globally networked Shifting Global Values

45. now Technology not wealth Access Skilling 50 % world popn no phone Gap : Haves - Have Nots

46. Australian Population Pyramid Aus Govt 2001

47. Gap : Age Generations Four generations : Three worlds • Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs Materialism • economic rationalists : profit • material values : tangibles • science as religion : rational • Generation X 30 – 45 yrs • clones of Boomers : materialists or • copy younger : sustainability

48. Gap : Age Generations Four generations : Three worlds • DotComs 15 - 30 yrs Sustainability • global identity • co opitalism • relationships • holistic win - win – win • Cluetrain Manifesto “ The marketplace is a conversation ” www.cluetrainmanifesto.com

49. Chinese Technology Centre

50. Gap : Age Generations • Four generations : Three worlds • Ferals 0 – 15 yrs Virtual • . no limits • .no boundaries • . parallel universes  • . quantum everything • . invent their world • . beyond our imagining • . Indigo children