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OPTIMA Optimisation for Sustainable Water Management

OPTIMA Optimisation for Sustainable Water Management. 4th Management Board Meeting Milano, Italy December 19-20, 2006. corridoio.zero Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Exchanges with the Balkans and the Mediterranean Region. Tools overview. RRM. LUC. Tools overview. WRM. Stream Scenarios.

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OPTIMA Optimisation for Sustainable Water Management

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  1. OPTIMAOptimisation for Sustainable Water Management 4th Management Board MeetingMilano, ItalyDecember 19-20, 2006 corridoio.zero Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Exchanges with the Balkans and the Mediterranean Region

  2. Tools overview RRM LUC Tools overview WRM Stream Scenarios Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools WRM Optimization Exploration and negotiation Possible developments DMC D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  3. Water Resources Model Generation of 1 or more hydrological scenarios S Tools overview d Analysis inter-cases D S=start node E S D=demand node Analysis intra-cases R C=control node R=reservoir E=end node Practical tools d=diversion node d c=confluence node Exploration and negotiation d D D Possible developments c S c D14 Index proposal c E C 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  4. WRM Optimization Scenarios Baseline Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Awareness campaign Possible developments Technological D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  5. WRM Optimization Scenarios Instrumentsas levers to generate variations, evolutions Baseline Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Contraintsas filters to cut off unacceptable solutions Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Awareness campaign Possible developments Technological D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  6. WRM Optimization Scenarios Baseline Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Awareness campaign Possible developments Technological D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  7. Criterion i Criterion i Criterion i Criterion j Criterion j Criterion j Discrete MultiCriteria A tool to navigate among alternatives Tools overview 1 efficient solution Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Baseline Exploration and negotiation Awareness campaign Possible developments 1 efficient solution 1 efficient solution D14 Index proposal Technological 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  8. Application of the same scenarios in different basin efficient Solution baseline efficient Solution awareness Case 1 Tools overview efficient Solution baseline efficient Solution technol. Analysis inter-cases efficient Solution baseline efficient Solution awareness Analysis intra-cases Case 2 Practical tools efficient Solution baseline efficient Solution technol. Exploration and negotiation ... ... ... Possible developments efficient Solution baseline efficient Solution awareness Case n D14 Index proposal efficient Solution baseline efficient Solution technol. 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  9. Inter case studies analysis Which is the effectiveness of an infrastrucutural intensive program in a small coastal basin or in a large inland agricultural one? Which is the effectiveness of a public awareness campaign in the same situations? Is it possible to elicit some general rule? Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments i.e. Best Practices? D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  10. Inter case studies analysis Tools overview ... In case it is possible to define general behaviours of basins, it would be possible to draw lessons and Best Practices to disseminate in the wider mediterranean area for all other cases with similar characteristics, i.e. WP14 results would be starting points for WP15 subjects. Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  11. Criterion i Criterion j choice of criteria and efficient solutions First check: How does Tools overview Analysis inter-cases the efficient solution changes when different (or further) criteria are considered? Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  12. choice of criteria and efficient solutions Criterion i Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Starting with 2 criteria Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal Criterion j 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  13. Criterion i Criterion j choice of criteria and efficient solutions Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Then adding furter ones... Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  14. Criterion i Criterion j choice of criteria and efficient solutions Tools overview Analysis inter-cases The Pareto frontier changes, and the reference point also. Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  15. choice of criteria and efficient solutions Tools overview Moreover, a further check is necessary: Analysis inter-cases At the present time many existing criteria are redundant: Analysis intra-cases This appears from the strong correlation: Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  16. choice of criteria and efficient solutions Supply/Demand ratio Reliability of Supply Reservoir performance Diversion performance Allocation efficiency Unallocated Water Shortfall Content Change Flooding days Flooding extent Economic efficiency Econ.efficiency, direct Benefit/Cost Benefit/Cost, direct Total Benefit Total Cost Direct net benefits Direct benefit Total Cost, dir. Water Cost Water Cost, direct Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  17. choice of criteria and efficient solutions Supply/Demand ratio Reliability of Supply Reservoir performance Diversion performance Allocation efficiency Unallocated Water Shortfall Content Change Flooding days Flooding extent Economic efficiency Econ.efficiency, direct Benefit/Cost Benefit/Cost, direct Total Benefit Total Cost Direct net benefits Direct benefit Total Cost, dir. Water Cost Water Cost, direct Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  18. choice of criteria and efficient solutions Supply/Demand ratio Reliability of Supply Reservoir performance Diversion performance Allocation efficiency Unallocated Water Shortfall Content Change Flooding days Flooding extent Economic efficiency Econ.efficiency, direct Benefit/Cost Benefit/Cost, direct Total Benefit Total Cost Direct net benefits Direct benefit Total Cost, dir. Water Cost Water Cost, direct Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  19. choice of criteria and efficient solutions Supply/Demand ratio Reliability of Supply Reservoir performance Diversion performance Allocation efficiency Unallocated Water Shortfall Content Change Flooding days Flooding extent Economic efficiency Econ.efficiency, direct Benefit/Cost Benefit/Cost, direct Total Benefit Total Cost Direct net benefits Direct benefit Total Cost, dir. Water Cost Water Cost, direct Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  20. choice of criteria and efficient solutions Supply/Demand ratio Reliability of Supply Reservoir performance Diversion performance Allocation efficiency Unallocated Water Shortfall Content Change Flooding days Flooding extent Economic efficiency Econ.efficiency, direct Cost/Benefit Benefit/Cost, direct Total Benefit Total Cost Direct net benefits Direct benefit Total Cost, dir. Water Cost Water Cost, direct Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  21. choice of criteria and efficient solutions Criteria available so far are measures of overall behaviour We need to define criteria able to measure sectoral performances or even node specific ones This should be in principle realizable through the on-line Knowledge Base Editor. Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  22. choice of criteria and efficient solutions At least as soon as we learn how to enter it! Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  23. Criterion i Criterion j Esploration of the Pareto frontier • Comparison and choice of alternatives in the participated activities: • How to compare alternatives: Tools overview Analysis inter-cases The use of a Pareto frontier is most likely to be not suitable for non-technical stakeholders Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  24. Esploration of the Pareto frontier On the other side, a direct visualization of performances is much more comprehensible Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  25. … Alternative i Criterion1 Criterion2 … CriterionN … … Alternative j Criterion1 Criterion2 … CriterionN Esploration of the Pareto frontier Also using stakeholder-specific criteria, not just overall ones Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  26. Esploration of the Pareto frontier In collective workshops Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  27. Esploration of the Pareto frontier In collective workshops Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  28. Esploration of the Pareto frontier Tools overview Analysis inter-cases In one-to-one activities proposed by the case-study partner to stakeholders Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  29. Esploration of the Pareto frontier Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Through interviews and questionnaires Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  30. Criterion i Criterion j Esploration of the Pareto frontier In a following phase, shs can negotiate under the supervision of case study/methodological partners until they reach an agreement on a "best compromise". Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  31. Criterion i Criterion j Esploration of the Pareto frontier In a following phase, shs can negotiate under the supervision of case study/methodological partners until they reach an agreement on a "best compromise". Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  32. Criterion i Criterion j Esploration of the Pareto frontier In a following phase, shs can negotiate under the supervision of case study/methodological partners until they reach an agreement on a "best compromise". Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  33. Criterion i Criterion j Esploration of the Pareto frontier The "optimal consensual solution“ can be compared with the one identified by technicians using only overall criteria. This may reveal hidden conflicts not shown by basin-scale performances. Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  34. Criterion i Criterion j Esploration of the Pareto frontier Distribution patterns can be searched, to see if sectoral-specific preferred alternatives or negotiatied solution ones assume common shapes in the hyper-space of criteria. Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  35. Possible extension of optimization approach Baseline Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Awareness campaign Possible developments Technological D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  36. Possible extension of optimization approach Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  37. Possible extension of optimization approach Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  38. Possible extension of optimization approach Criterion i Criterion i Criterion i Criterion j Criterion j Criterion j No more separate optimizations... Tools overview 1 efficient solution Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Baseline Exploration and negotiation Awareness campaign Possible developments 1 efficient solution 1 efficient solution D14 Index proposal Technological 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  39. Possible extension of optimization approach No more separate optimizations... Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  40. Possible extension of optimization approach Criterion i Criterion j Awareness Baseline Tools overview Analysis inter-cases ...but just different regions on the same Pareto frontier Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Technological Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  41. WP 14 - Deliverables Tools overview OPTIMA WP 14 Evaluation: Post Optimal Analysis Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases D14.1 – Decision Analysis Report (Draft Release by ESS) Practical tools Exploration and negotiation D14.2 – Stakeholder Involvement (Proposal of Table of Contents by CZERO) Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  42. D14.2 Stakeholder Involvement • INTRODUCTION • 1.1 Participation in Discrete Multi Criteria phase • 1.2 Participation Tools Tools overview Analysis inter-cases • OPTIMISATION SCENARIOS • 2.1 Selected Sets of Alternatives (for each CS) • 2.2 CS Cross-analysis of Optimisation Scenarios Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation • CRITERIA AND OPTIMISATION STRATEGIES • 3.1 Selected Criteria (for each CS) • 3.2 Constraints (for each CS) • 3.3 From Criteria to Objectives • 3.4 CS Cross-analysis of Criteria and Objectives Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  43. D14.2 Stakeholder Involvement • DECISION MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS • 4.1 Choice of Solution Space (for each CS) • 4.2 Methods for Exploration of Pareto Fronteer • 4.3 Elicitation of Stakeholder Preference Structure(s) • 4.4 CS Cross-analysis Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools • SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS (to be detailed) • 5.1 Sensitivity & Robustness Analysis of solutions (for each CS) • 5.2 CS Sensitivity Cross-analysis • 5.3 CS Robustness Cross-analysis Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  44. D14.1-2: open questions • Sharing D14.2 approach: it is focused on methodology (participative process in WP14 activities) and not on tools (D16.2 – Guidelines for SH active involvement) • Integration and/or moving parts from D14.1 to D14.2 (and vice-versa?) • Integration, synergies and cross-references with D15 • Contributions from CS Partners Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

  45. End Tools overview Analysis inter-cases Analysis intra-cases Thank you for the attention! Practical tools Exploration and negotiation Possible developments D14 Index proposal 4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

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