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A Glimpse Into Summer: Evaporating Demand Melissa Westaway Meteorologist/Demand Forecaster Agenda Enva – What We Do Demand Forecasting Key Factors That Affect Demand Demand Destruction Increasing Compare The Data Summer Outlook Conclusion Enva Service Portfolio

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

A Glimpse Into Summer:

Evaporating Demand

Melissa Westaway

Meteorologist/Demand Forecaster

Proprietary and Confidential

agenda
Agenda
  • Enva – What We Do
  • Demand Forecasting
  • Key Factors That Affect Demand
  • Demand Destruction Increasing
  • Compare The Data
  • Summer Outlook
  • Conclusion

Proprietary and Confidential

enva service portfolio
Enva Service Portfolio
  • 3 Reports Delivered Daily
  • Recap Report
  • Bal-Day/Next-Day Report
  • Bal-Week/Next-Week Report
  • Live Interaction
  • Daily briefing calls
  • Access to Enva Operations Center
  • Analysts can re-run model with client input

MISO

  • Daily Market Intel
  • Bal-Week/Next-Week

PJM

  • Daily Market Intel
  • Bal-Week/Next-Week

NYISO

Daily Market Intel

CAISO

Daily Market Intel

  • NEPOOL
  • Daily Market Intel

Proprietary and Confidential

base case modeling analysis
Base Case Modeling & Analysis

Generator Availability

Power Flows & Limits

Generator 10-Part Bids

& Constraints

ISO

Operational & RTMP

Rules

Hourly Forecast Demand

(by zone)

Expert Review

Hourly Forecast Imports

(by zone)

Expected Power Flows

&

Hourly Base Case LMP’s

Proprietary and Confidential

demand forecasting process
Demand Forecasting Process
  • Inputs
  • ISO Actual Demand
  • Weather Data
  • (for 200+ locations)
    • Weatherbug
    • WSI
    • Public data & models
  • Demand Analysis
  • By meteorologist
  • Reviews and modifies forecast based on weather events, recap and R/T developments
  • NeuroBuilder™
  • Industry’s most advanced Neural Net
  • Hourly demand values out 15 days

Result:

Industry’s most comprehensive and accurate demand forecast

Proprietary and Confidential

short term effects on demand
Short Term Effects On Demand
  • Assess factors that impact demand based on day and season:
    • Weather (e.g., temperature, humidity, precipitation)
    • Human habits (e.g., school is in/out of session, Fridays, holidays)
    • Unusual events (e.g., hurricane, Superbowl, blackouts)

Proprietary and Confidential

the green effect
The Green Effect
  • The trend of demand destruction based on increases in:
    • Energy efficiency & conservation
    • Behind the meter generation
    • Economic pressures

Proprietary and Confidential

energy efficiency conservation
Energy Efficiency & Conservation
  • Energy conservation means using less energy and avoiding wasteful uses.
  • This is accomplished by:
    • Using energy efficient products/appliances
    • Modifying usage habits (e.g. reducing AC use)

Proprietary and Confidential

energy efficiency resource standards eers
Energy Efficiency Resource Standards (EERS)
  • An EERS – Energy Efficiency Resource (or portfolio) Standard – aims to reduce or flatten electric load growth through energy efficiency (EE) measures. Goals may specify reductions in energy (MWh), demand (MW), or both. Many specify both overall energy reductions and peak-load reductions.
  • 18 states have passed EERS legislation
  • 3 states have pending EERS legislation
  • 14 states passed significant Energy

Efficiency legislation in 2008

Source: FERC http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-electric/overview/elec-ovr-eeps.pdf

Proprietary and Confidential

behind the meter generation
Behind the Meter Generation
  • Example – California Solar Initiative

Goal:

3,000 MW

of new

solar-produced

electricity

by 2016

Proprietary and Confidential

slide11

Economic Impact On Demand

  • Episodes of sharply declining demand coincide with periods of economic recession.
  • This corresponds to episodes of increased unemployment.

TeraWatts

Gogerty, Nick. "The Green Re-cession: Via Demand Shock."

SeekingAlpha.com. 27 Mar. 2009. 27 Mar. 2009 <www.seekingalpha.com>.

Proprietary and Confidential

slide12

1975

2009

1992

source www.miseryindex.us

Proprietary and Confidential

eia demand trends
EIA Demand Trends
  • Between 2002 to 2006, the average US annual electricity demand grew by an average of 1.6% per year.
  • Last year EIA’s outlook for 2008 to 2030, electricity demand growth will average only 1.2% per year.
  • In January 2009, EIA revised demand forecast:
    • Drop of 0.8% in 2009
    • Rise of 1.5% in 2010

source US EIA

Proprietary and Confidential

enva summer 2009 outlook
Enva Summer 2009 Outlook
  • Summer demand is represented by an average of the months June, July and August.
  • Assuming the summer of 2009 to have similar weather to summer of 2008.

Proprietary and Confidential

slide15

Demand Percent Change

2006-2007 -1.9%

2007-2008 -1.2%

2008-2009 (EIA) -0.8%

2008-2009 (Enva) -1.2%

Proprietary and Confidential

slide16

Demand Percent Change

2006-2007 +1.7%

2007-2008 -5.1%

2008-2009 (EIA) -0.8%

2008-2009 (Enva) -4.1%

Proprietary and Confidential

slide17

Demand Percent Change

2006-2007 +2.1%

2007-2008 -3.7%

2008-2009 (EIA) -0.8%

2008-2009 (Enva) -2.8%

Proprietary and Confidential

slide18

SUMMARY

  • We expect the continuation of demand destruction.
  • The percent change will vary by region from roughly -1% to as much as -4%.
  • Demand summer outlook is an average of the season.
  • Volatile days will still occur.

Proprietary and Confidential

slide19

Closing

  • Questions?
  • Thank you for attending today’s presentation

Enva, Inc.

177 Huntington Ave., Suite 2100

Boston, Massachusetts, 02115

Tel. (617) 790-0900

Fax. (617) 790-0932

www.envapower.com

Proprietary and Confidential

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