1 / 32

US National Security Interests

US National Security Interests. Iraq. Defining National Security Interests. US National Security Policy US National Interests : “our perceived needs and aspirations in relation to our international engagement ” Vital National Interest

saki
Download Presentation

US National Security Interests

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. US National Security Interests Iraq

  2. Defining National Security Interests US National Security Policy US National Interests: “our perceived needs and aspirations in relation to our international engagement” • Vital National Interest • When threatened – US must act; not acting will have immediate, critical consequences to US Interests. • Important National Interests • Not acting to protect these will cause damage, that may eventually have critical consequences. • Peripheral National Interests • Unlikely to affect critical national interests.

  3. Elements National Power • Diplomatic – efforts in direct and indirect diplomacy, through our State Department professionals. • Informational - Information dissemination to shape our interests and behavior of other nations. • Military – application of military power. • Economic - use of US Economic Power to shape behavior

  4. Area: slightly smaller than California Population: ~ 26.5 million Largest city: Baghdad (5.6 million) Religion: 97% Muslim (65% Shia) 3% Christian Language: 80% Arabic 20% Kurdish Iraq

  5. Sandstorm- Southeastern Iraq

  6. Zagros Mountains near Sulaimaniyah

  7. Wheat fields in the Jazirah

  8. Alluvial plain

  9. Marshes of southern Iraq

  10. Long-standing patterns in the history of Iraq Continue to have a strong impact on your present area of operation

  11. Major Patterns in the History of Iraq • Tribes and cities have been mutually dependent and competing for power for over 4000 years. • Women and domestic space have been segregated for at least 4000 years • States have been relocating people to reduce their ability to resist for nearly 3000 years • Islam is also an historical, cultural, and civilizational reference point • Conflict for control of Mesopotamia (Iraq) between western powers and Persia (Iran) • Favoritism towards minority Sunni urban elite, discrimination against majority Shia rural poor • Absence of democratic traditions and institutions in modern Iraq

  12. United States Iraq Comparative view of the Historical context • Older nation • Younger history and culture • History of democratic transition in government • Citizenship as idiom of participation in rule • Tradition of pluralism and open debate • Younger nation • Older history and culture • History of violent changes of government • Tribalism and ethnicity as idiom of participation in rule • Tradition of particularlism and repression of dissent

  13. Provinces of Iraq

  14. History of Iraq • Ancient Mesopotamia (3500 BC – 300 AD) • Early Islam (650 – 1258 AD) • Ottoman empire (1520 - 1917) • Modern Iraq (1921 to present)

  15. Modern IraqPolitical Rule • Monarchy 1921-1958 • Qasim regime 1958-1963 • Continued military rule 1963-1968 • Baathist control 1968-1979 • Baathism under Saddam 1979-2003

  16. Baathist Iraq: 1968 - 2003 No genuine political participation No institutionalized, legitimate rule Real power in the hands of a narrow, tribal-based elite

  17. Recap: Modern Iraq • Failure to build broadly-based political institutions • No popular “buy-in” to political process • Reliance on tribes to govern • Involvement of military in governing • Shia and Kurds largely excluded • Instability and violent change of government are the norm

  18. Contemporary Military History in Iraq • Iran – Iraq War – 1980 – 1988 • “First Gulf War” – 1991 • Operation Iraqi Freedom – 2003 - present

  19. Iran – Iraq War • Continuation of Persian – Western Conflict • Initiated by newly Fundamentalist Iran: • Shah of Iran is deposed, and fundamental Islamists control Iran. • Opposed to ‘secular’ rule in Iraq by Baathists/Hussein. • Repression of Shia Tribes in Iraq. • US sides with Iraq in latter stages of the war. • Ends in a Stalemate, but with both nations weakened from years of war.

  20. Persian Gulf War - 1991 • Iraq Invades Kuwait • Threatens Saudi Arabia • Thirty-one nation coalition led by the US defends Saudi Arabia; pushes Iraqi Army from Kuwait • Aftermath: • US presence in Saudi Arabia • Hussein retribution against Shia, Kurds • UN Peace Treaty & Resolutions

  21. The Road To Gulf War II • Continued repression of minority Kurds and majority Shia. • UN enforced “No Fly Zones” • UN restrictions on Iraqi weapons development. • UN economic sanctions • US Policy of Regime Change in Iraq • 9/11

  22. Operation Iraqi Freedom - 2003 • Small Coalition of the “willing” • Not sanctioned by the UN • US Led Operation: • Quick, decisive defeat of Iraqi Conventional Military forces. • Overthrow of Hussein/Baathists. • “Mission Accomplished”……..

  23. OIF – 2004-2006 • Lack of security throughout the nation. • Confusion among US agencies • Widespread Sectarian Violence. (Internal) • Fight for political control • Foreign “Insurgents” (External) • Foment sectarian violence • Kill Americans • Drive America from Iraq • Lack of basic government & services for Iraqi citizens. • Growing Iranian influence and support of Shia militias.

  24. “The Surge” • Increased US Combat Troops: • Change in Tactics: • Units deployed alongside Iraqi Sec Forces in neighborhoods. • Bring security and support to Baghdad • Change in Strategy: • Work with Tribes and Militias to improve security and drive out insurgency. • Increase Military authority. • Refocus on Reconstruction & Security

  25. The Situation – Jan 2009 • Much safer – everywhere • Insurgency is defeated. • Militias are “beating guns into plowshares” • Iraqi political leadership is stronger and better able to govern. • Iranian influence has been reduced. • Reconstruction has flourished. • Services to citizens and economy are growing.

  26. Electricity Reconstruction Overview • There are 3 generation projects valued at $223.5M as of 5 Dec 08. The forecasted completion date of all generation work is Mar 09. The Qudas Power Plant Expansion will be the last to complete. • Mullah Unit one • The Qudas Power Plant Expansion will strengthen the Baghdad Ring and serve 180,000 - 235,000 homes. The contractor is striving to provide power to the grid with one GTG operating on distillate fuel by end of CY08 & with the second GTG in same status by Jan 09. • Qudas –Unit 9 auxiliary package alignment final adjustments • World Bank Estimate: $20B U.S. Contribution: $4.3B • Qudas - Gas Turbine Generator #9 • There are 8 transmission projects in progress valued at $151.1M as of 5 Dec 08. The forecasted completion date of transmission work is 30 Sep 09. The Ghammas Substation will be the last to complete. • Transmission • Work is now completed connecting Haditha Substation Baghdad Bay to West Baghdad. Gulf Region Division ~ US Army Corps of Engineers • Distribution

  27. Ribbon Cutting Ceremony at new Elementary School – June 2008

  28. The Risk • Lack of political progress – • Are Kurds and Sunni’s represented ? • Will majority Shia share power ? • Will citizens believe in elections ? • Security is tenuous – • Sectarian violence can return • Insurgents • Iran • Turkey and Kurds. • ISF cannot operate without US Military support. • What happens to the US if Iraq becomes a failed state

  29. The Solution ?

  30. Issues for US Policy Makers • Is Iraq a US vital National Interest ? • What is US objective & desired outcome ? • What is the cost to achieve the objective ? • Is the future cost of operations worth the outcome (Risk/Reward) ? • How do we achieve our objectives ? • Diplomatic - Military • Informational - Economic

  31. Discussion • “Go to War” decision-making • Iraq as a National Interest • Middle East as a National Interest. • What is the Global War on Terrorism? • How is Iraq related to GWOT? • How is Afghanistan related to GWOT? • What if ?? Second order effects… • US Defense Strategy Under the Bush Administration – “Preemption” • What Strategy will/should the Obama Administration Pursue ?

More Related