Energy Prospects in the Mediterranean Region Dr Houda Ben Jannet Allal

1. Energy Prospects in the MediterraneanRegionDr Houda Ben Jannet Allal Geneva, 31stMay 2013

2. Cross-roads for Global Energy Markets and several challenges ahead • 7% of world population, 500 million people, 90 million more by 2030, nearly all in the South • 10% world GDP, $7.5 trillion of GDP, 2.5% p.a. average growth to 2030 • 8% of world’s primary energy demand • Important energy corridor / energy hub • Several challenges calling for innovative energy strategies • Security of supply concerns • Financial crisis and important socio-political changes • Particular vulnerability to climate change and its impacts

3. ENERGY in the SMCs – common drivers and challenges and alsodisparities • Common • High demographic development and rapid urbanisation around the littoral • High economic growth • Access to energy almost of all, efforts are still needed • Energy driver to the socio-economic development • Increasing climate change concerns and effects • Important disparities S/S and also S/N • Availability of conventional energy resources • From exporting to totally importing countries • Large disparities with NMCs

4. Disparities, interdependency and convergence tendency TPES / capita (toe/cap) CO2 / capita (tCO2/cap)

5. MEP 2011 - KEY MESSAGES

6. Business as usual is no longer possible • Current energy trends in the Mediterranean are not sustainable. Conservative scenario is not an option: • Overall energy demand could grow by 40% to 2030. • CO2 emissions would exceed 3000Mt in 2030, up from 2200Mt currently. • Electricity boom ahead: average annual growth rate of about 2.8% and 5% in the South: overall over 380 GW of additional capacity needed. • Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix and natural gas will overtake oil. • High potential for RE & EE not fully exploited

7. HIGH challenges in the south Energy for +80 million persons; +73% GDP/head. Electricity demand to multiply by 3 Overall energy demand &CO2 emissions to double.

8. There is an alternative path Mtoe MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY DEMAND OUTLOOK, by Scenarios GDP (billion dollars (ppps 2005)) 1 500 Proactive Scenario 12 500 1 400 Conservative Scenario 1 300 - 12% GDP 10 500 1 200 1 100 8 500 1 000 900 6 500 800 700 4 500 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 • Under a Proactive Scenario: • Savings in primary (12%) and final energy (10%) • Overall demand and CO2 emissions just grow 20% • Less fossil fuel imports, less generation capacity needed

9. ENERGY Demand BY FUEL The future will remain fossil fuel based (70%) Gas demand could increase by 70%, over 40% in an alternative scenario RES can take a relevant share:16% from 8% today

10. HEAVY RELIANCE on Fossil FuelS will endure Source: OME

11. Gas Era and Oil peak Export capacity would substantially increase under the Proactive Scenario to over 180 bcm in 2030.

12. Mediterranean Electricity boom ahead Electricity demand in the South will nearly triple by 2030.

13. additional generation capacity needed IN SOUTH & EAST MEDITERRANEAN 120 GW 321 GW 289 GW GW 350 Non - hydro Renewables 13% 300 Hydro Nuclear 14% 250 28% Gas 3% Oil 200 Coal 15% 6% 150 50% 2% 18% 100 40% 49% 6% 50 17% 14% 5% 16% 5% 2030 PS 2030 CS 2009 200 GW will be required to meet electricity demand. 32 GW less in a Proactive Scenario.

14. Different decoupling Patterns toe/thousand US$ KWh/thousand US$ 0.16 0.28 0.14 0.23 0.12 Med PS - EnergyIntensity 0.18 Med CS - EnergyIntensity Med PS - Electricityintensity 0.1 0.13 Med CS - • Electricityintensity 0.08 0.08 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Energy intensity is decreasing leading to a decoupling of GDP and energy demand. Electricity intensity could continue increasing.

15. Mediterranean energy efficiency -10% 10% of the regional energy consumption can be saved through energy efficiency measures by 2030.

16. Outlook for CO2 EMISSIONS • In the Conservative Scenario, CO2 emissions would increase +40% (reaching 3000Mt) in 2030. • Only +9% in the Proactive scenario (600Mt less).

17. To conclude – common vision and innovative & adapted solutions • For a successful energy transition targeted by all • Regional cooperation is a must, common vision but adapted strategies, policies and measures are needed • Considering its high impacts, EE should be given first priority. RE are also very much needed • An alternative path: possible but pending on actions and means allowing removal of the existing barriers Demonstration, capacity building, technology transfer, best practices exchange, innovative financing schemes … • All energy sources are needed • RDD&I is very much needed and plays a major role in promoting sustainable and inclusive economic growth and job creation (very important) • Water, energy and climate change, closely interrelated and important for the sustainable development in the region

18. The WayForward • Mediterranean countries have a common interest in preparing together their long-term future • No unique or standard solution, but sustainability implies: • Promotion of energy efficiency both on supply side and demand side - energy sobriety • Preservation and reasonable use of fossil fuels • Promotion of RE and in particular solar energy • Strengthening of the electric grid S/S and S/N to integrate new plants • Technology transfer and capacity building

19. A COMMON BOOK OME MEDGRID www.ome.org

20. Thank you for your attention Dr. Houda BEN JANNET ALLAL houda.allal@ome.org Kuraymat CSP plant, Egypt