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Mediterranean Energy Perspectives. MENA-OECD Task Force on Energy and Infrastructure 8th Meeting Paris 09. 03. 2012 Pedro Moraleda OME General Director. OME Membership. As of December 2011. Mediterranean Energy PERSPECTIVES 2011. Book released in December 2011

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Mediterranean energy perspectives
Mediterranean Energy Perspectives

MENA-OECD Task Force

on Energy and Infrastructure

8th Meeting

Paris 09. 03. 2012

Pedro Moraleda

OME General Director


OME Membership

As of December 2011


Mediterranean Energy PERSPECTIVES 2011

  • Book released in December 2011

  • Covers 24 countries, 19 of which are modeled separately

  • Uses OME Mediterranean Energy Model compatible with IEA flows

  • Presents supply/demand outlook to 2030 by sector and by fuel

  • Two demand scenarios depicted: Conservative and Proactive

  • A comprehensive and quantitative study done by OME staffin cooperation with member companies and local experts


Mediterranean Electricity boom ahead

Electricity production/demand in the South will nearly triple by 2030.

20% could be saved under a different scenario.


Oil

Coal

Gas

Renewable

Nuclear

TWh

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

2009

2030

50

0

1229 TWh

559TWh

-

50

-

100

Changing Patterns in power Generation

GENERATION MIX FORECASTSOUTH & EAST MEDITERRANEAN

559 TWh

1229 TWh

1535 TWh

Electricity Efficiency

2009

2030


additional generation capacity needed

  • SOUTH & EAST MEDITERRANEAN

120 GW

321 GW

289 GW

GW

350

Non

-

hydro Renewables

13%

300

Hydro

Nuclear

14%

250

28%

Gas

3%

Oil

200

Coal

15%

6%

150

50%

2%

18%

100

40%

49%

6%

50

17%

14%

5%

16%

5%

2030 PS

2030 CS

2009

200 GW will be required to meet electricity demand.

32 GW less in a Proactive Scenario.


POWER GENERATION INVESTMENTS 2010-2030

Over 700 billion Euros will be needed to 2030.

Spared gas could compensate the additional cost of clean generation technologies.


MEDITERRANEAN WIND OUTLOOK

15%

17%

68%

Wind generation to increase six fold and South to supply one third of the total by 2030.


OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR PV

15%

14%

71%

Solar PV is expected to grow at a yearly rate of 15.5%

in the Mediterranean region (faster in the South).


OUTLOOK FOR SOLAR CSP

16%

33%

51%

South Med countries are expected to produce

half of total CSP-based electricity in the region.


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