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January 27, 2009

Institute of Real Estate Management. The Economy in 2009 and Beyond. Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University. January 27, 2009.

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January 27, 2009

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  1. Institute of Real Estate Management The Economy in 2009 and Beyond Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University ProfessorDirector, Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy, George Mason University January 27, 2009

  2. U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2011 % Forecast > > > > > > > > > > > 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Global Insight

  3. GDP Percent Change(Real Dollars) %

  4. The Washington Economy

  5. US GDP and Washington GRP % Washington GRP US GDP

  6. 2009 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 11.8 % Other Federal 17.9 % Federal 33.3% Procurement 15.4% Local Business 38.9% Assn 2.2% Hosp. 2.0% Int’l 4.8% Other 7.0% Other: Health/Education, Media, Lobbyists

  7. Annual Change in Jobs1991 – 2007Washington Metro Thousands Avg = 46,600 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  8. Annual Job ChangeWashington Metro Area 000s Annual Change Annual Month-over-the-Year 2007 2008 46.6 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  9. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Nov. 07– Nov. 08 Thousands Washington + 31,100 Ranked by Total Jobs

  10. Unemployment Rate % U.S. Washington Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

  11. 15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateNovember 2008 % U.S. 6.5 4.4 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Data not seasonally adjusted

  12. Sales and Total Active ListingsWashington MSA, December Each Year 1000s Listings Sales

  13. Units Sold Percent ChangeBy SubregionAll Housing Types % 2007 2008 NVA MSA SMD DC Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  14. Housing Price Index Trends U.S. and Washington Metro Area Both Series Indexed to 1976 = 100 Conforming Loans Only Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (OFHEO) and GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  15. Average Sales Price All Housing TypesWashington Metro $ + 8.0 %/year Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  16. Mortgage Foreclosure Ratesby County – Jan 08 & Jan 09 Foreclosures /10,000 units Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Source: RealtyTrac, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  17. Outlook

  18. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2013Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change) % NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  19. Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s) Average Annual Change 1990-2007 = 46,600 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  20. GDP/GRP 2000 - 2012 % Washington U.S. Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  21. www.cra-gmu.org

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