Koreaglobe 2008 3 11
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 104

코리아글로브 KoreaGlobe 2008 년 3 월 11 일 강사 : 이춘근 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 265 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

美 國 論. 코리아글로브 KoreaGlobe 2008 년 3 월 11 일 강사 : 이춘근. 강의에 앞서 : 상식과 지식 . 우리가 확실하게 알고 있다고 생각하는 것이 진짜 진리인가 ?. 우리가 생각하는 상식 은 대단한 진리를 포함 하는 경우가 많지만 증명되지 않은 , 그러나 모두 그렇게 믿고 있는 것인 경우도 많습니다 . 세계 최초의 천문대 맞습니까 ?! 이 구조물에서 어떻게 별을 관찰 했을까 ? 생각 해 본적 있습니까 ?.

Download Presentation

코리아글로브 KoreaGlobe 2008 년 3 월 11 일 강사 : 이춘근

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

KoreaGlobe

2008 3 11

:


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

: . ?

  • , . ?!

  • ? ?


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

  • .

  • (Logic of Paradox) .

  • .

    . .

    . .

1000 F15-K

300 K-1

K-2 80


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

? ()


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

? .

?


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

. 1-4

.

,

.

.

.

.

,

.


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

  • .

  • .

  • ,

  • 21

  • .


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

:

  • : country, nation, state, land

  • : ,

  • :

  • , : power, strategy

  • -, ,,


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

:

  • . (Inter National Politics, or Politics among Nations)

  • , .

  • . . .

    ANARCHY

    a archy, No Archy ( )

    mono-archy ---- Monarchy ()

    poly-archy ----- Polyarchy ()


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

1. (Idealism, Utopianism)

1 :

, , ,

Kellog-Briand Pact (1928) .

1930: .

.

:

E.H.Carr, The Twenty Years Crisis: 1919-1939

Reinhold Niebuhr, Moral Man and Immoral Society

2 .


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

E.H.Carr(1892-1982) Reinhold Niebuhr

The Twenty Years Crisis Moral Man and Immoral Society

. E.H Carr .


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

.

.


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

: Realism, Real Politik

.

2 (Paradigm)

National Interest : Security, Power, Prosperity, Prestige

Power Defined in terms of National Interest

,

To Increase Power

To Keep Power

To Demonstrate Power Hans J. Morgenthau


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

Domique DeVillepin. 2003 1

NOTHING, NOTHING Justifies War

. ? 2003 3 27 .

Q) ?

A) .

Q) ?

A)

Q) ?

A) . ?


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

, . ? ?

2007 11 12 . . 2007 , 2008 , , .


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

March 8, 2008

  • South Koreas Sarkozy

  • Lee wants to save his country by nudging

    it right and toward the U.S.


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

.

.

?

: .

,

.

?

?

?

? ?

?


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

  • ?


Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

Who is this

Guy ?

Is he

a Demon, a Hero

or Just a

Normal Politician?

He sought

Personal Power

and Glory in

the name of

The German

Nation.


Reading the news with realist eyes

Reading the News with Realist Eyes

  • ' '

  • : 2007.11.03 04:58

  • 2 . 5 2 , , , 5 .

  • . 30(2007.10) E 31 .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    , . (2007.10.30 ) () . ?

    PSI

    ?

    .

    11 3 .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    2007 10

    .

    .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    • (Hegemonic, Unipolar system)

    • , Power Politics


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    21

    The Age of American Hegemony

    America is at War


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    21

    • 1. 7500 :

    • 2003 ( GDP 3.5%)

    • 2. 3800 :

    • 2003

    • 2004 4013

    • 2007: 4480

    • 2008: 4810(,1,417

    • 6,246 )

    • 3. 3.2 %: GDP

    • (2003) 4%

    • 4. 17 %:

    • 5. 3,025 : 2001 9 11

    • : Bruce Berkowitz, The New Face of War

      New York: The Free Press, 2003.

      21

      . Bill Emmot, 20:21 Vision,


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    Economist 2050 . 2003 .

    , (Lester C.Thurow, Building Wealth, , p. 39)

    ( Bill Emmott, 20:21 Vision, 2003):

    -

    1990 500 151 238 149 50 . 1/5 .(Lester Thurow, 2003. Fortune Favors the Bold, p.98)

    40 %

    ( , 2002. 11.20 )


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    • 3 1990 .(1 , 2 ,3 )

    • 1991: 1,000 .

      , 2,000

      5,000 .

    • 2001 : 13,000

      1,2000 16,000

      11,000 .

    • 1991 2,000 2001 15,000 .

    • Lester Thurow, Fortune Favors the Bold (2003),() ( , 2005), p.46.


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    • Dana Priest

    • By 2002, Americas military was unmatched by factors of ten (p. 13) 2002 10 .

    • 6-10

    Washington Post

    Dana Priest

    .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    : :

    • 10(1992-2001) 2 5503 2 8397 2894 . 11.4 % .

    • 5737 5889 152 (2.6%),

    • 5801 5950 149 (2.57%),

    • 8057 8218 161 (2.0%),

    • 1 4831 1 4549 282 ,

    • 1 2442 1 2687 245 (1.97%) .

      * 2050 Median Age 53

      .

      *2002 25, 2005 26

      2002 0-14 : 156


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    • 10 11 8360 12 7510 9150 (7.7%) .

    • . 35.5 37.5 2 . 2050 36.2 52.7 .

    • : 2003 7 75 1000 , 60%--65

    • Open System ( 100 , 2003.7.24 )

    • : ,

      : .

      .

      2030 65 3 .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    100 53 . 50 42

    , 40 36 . 30

    28 , 20 20 . 10

    . Stanford ,MIT, UC-Berkeley, Harvard, PSU,

    U-Michigan, Cornell, UW-Madison , UT-Austin, University of Washington

    Web

    ,

    . 2007 7 .

    .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    :

    , (Grand Strategy) .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    [ ] ,

    () : 2007.07.20 22:56 / : 2007.07.20 23:07

    . , .

    . , ()()() 3 3 .

    . .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    .

    21 . .

    2005 7 18


    2005 11 21

    : 2005.11.21


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    :

    ' ' , . , . .

    " " " " . . 1996 3 , 2 11 .


    2008 1 15

    (2008 1 15 )

    () 15(2008 1) () ( ) . . /AP


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    , : .

    On October 28, 1994, the U.S. fleet including an aircraft carrier had a drill of sailing up into the northern part of the Yellow Sea, which the Chinese Navy reacted fiercely against the U.S.s actions.


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    Global Hawk F-22 Raptor Guam Hawaii

    () (Global Hawk) F-22 (Raptor) .. (Moseley) 16

    .

    2012 4

    ,

    .

    F-22

    . 8

    F-22 1

    . F-22

    ,

    F-22 183 3 1

    .! .

    2008.1.16.


    Arms build up of the northeast 1985 2000

    Arms Build Up of the Northeast (1985-2000)

    Military expenditures of the East Asian countries * million USD 1999 price

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    1985 1999 2000 % increase

    ----------------------------------------------------------------

    China 29,414 39,889 41,16740% +

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Japan 31,847 40,383 44,417 39%+

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    S. Korea 9,323 12,088 12,469 34%+

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    N. Korea 6,158 2,100 2,049 67% --

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Taiwan 9,541 14,964 17,248 81%+

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Total Asia 86,283 109,424 117, 377 36%+

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Source: IISS, The Military Balance 1997-1998 (London: Oxford University Press, 2000) p. 299. IISS, The Military Balance 2000-2001, and 2001-2002 edition.


    Arms build up of other major powers and regions

    Arms Build Up of other Major Powers and Regions

    Million USD, 1999 price

    1985 1999 2000 change %

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    United States 382,548 283,096 294,695 - 23%

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NATO/Europe 226,397 174,375162,053 - 28%

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Soviet/Russia 364,715 56,800 58,810 - 84%

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    World Total 1,253,517 812,043811,452 - 35%

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Source: IISS, The Military Balance 1997-1998 (London: Oxford University Press, 2000) p. 299. IISS, The Military Balance 2000-2001, and 2001-2002 edition.


    Arms build up of northeast asia 2000 2005

    Arms Build Up of Northeast Asia (2000-2005)

    Billion USD. 2006

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 change %

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    China 49.15 49.55 57.30 61.27 66.67 82.5468% +

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Japan 53.03 46.08 43.91 46.91 48.11 46.1213% -

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    N. Korea 2.46 5.12 5.60 6.02 5.87 6.19152% +

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    S. Korea 14.92 13.56 14.83 16.01 17.39 21.3643% +

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Taiwan 20.59 9.35 8.86 7.26 8.01 8.5858% -

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Total 140.15 123.66 130.50 137.47 146.05 164.8118% +

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    * CSIS, The Asian Conventional Military Balance in 2006 (Washington D.C: CSIS, 2006)


    2001 9 11 paradox of american power

    2001 9 11 Paradox of American Power

    2001 9 11 .

    , . (Beyond Imagination) .

    9 11 82 3025 .

    .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    Bush . No Child Left Behind . 9.11 . Bush. Bush . 9.11 . Andrew Card America is under attack . 8 Bush Born Again Christian .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    Its as if we were all irradiated, on that morning of September 11,2001, in such a way as to shift our psychological makeup-the DNA in our minds-with consequences that will not become clear for years to come

    John Lewis Gaddis

    2001 911

    - DNA- .


    Freedom tower

    Freedom Tower

    .

    Freedom Tower 1776 feet, 2000 feet

    ( 600m) .

    1776 .

    ?


    From deterrence to preemption

    :From Deterrence to Preemption

    • , .

    • .

    • : (Rationality Assumption)


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    . . . Usama bin Laden

    ,


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    3 : , ,

    (2005)

    2006.12.30

    , , . . .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    2002 5 31 .

    Bush Doctrine . 10


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    2005.5.27. Naval Academy Graduation


    2005 5 27

    . (2005.5.27)

    Technology changes the balance of war in another important way: We can now strike our enemies with greater effectiveness, at greater range, with fewer civilian casualties. In this new era of warfare, we can target a regime, not a nation, and that means terrorists and tyrants can no longer feel safe hiding behind innocent life. In the 21st century, we can target the guilty and protect the innocent, and that makes it easier to keep the peace.

    . , , . . 21 .

    2005.5.27.


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    2006

    Jessamyn Jade Liu


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    13, 21


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    :

    () ( 2004 ,2006 , 2004 ) ( )

    David H. Petraeus ( ) .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    Iraq: Not Victory, But Like Victory .

    .

    ,

    ,

    2007

    .

    2012

    .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    .( 40

    .

    2500 2000 500 .

    60%, 35%, 5%. .

    15-20% ( )

    . (,)

    .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    :

    2006 5 20

    .

    .

    ,

    2007 4

    Nouri Kamel al-Maliki (Arabic: , transliteratedNr Kmil al-Mlik; born c. 1950), also known as Jawad al-Maliki, is the current Prime Minister of Iraq following Iraq's election in December2005. He is a Shi'a Muslim, and is the deputy leader of the Islamic Dawa Party. He was appointed to succeed the transitional government of fellow Dawa leader Ibrahim al-Jaafari. His 37-member Cabinet was approved by the National Assembly and sworn in on May 20, 2006. Al-Maliki's constitutional mandate will last until 2010. On April 26, 2006, al-Maliki's office announced that he would thenceforth use the first name Nouri instead of his pseudonym Jawad.


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    - : 9.11

    :

    .

    ,

    ,

    (, , ) .

    ( ? 2005.8.30)

    (2005.9)

    (2006.2)


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    :

    (36)1971

    (26)1981


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    • 2002 1 3

    • , , 2006 , .

    • 2 ,

      (Outpost of Tyranny) .

      : .

      .

      (Regime Change) .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    Bush

    • The president sat forward in his chair. I thought he might jump up he became so emotional as he spoke about he North Korean leader.

    • I loathe Kim Jong Il! Bush shouted, waving his finger in the air. Ive got a visceral reaction to this guy, because he is starving his people. And I have seen intelligence of these prison camps-theyre huge-that he uses to break up families, and to torture people. I am appalled at the

    • .

    • CIA

    • .

    • Bob Woodward, Bush at War. 2002.


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    President Bush Visits Prague, Czech Republic, Discusses Freedom

    .

    2007 65

    People living in tyranny need to know they are not forgotten. North Koreans live in a closed society where dissent is brutally suppressed, and they are cut off from their brothers and sisters to the south. The Iranians are a great people who deserve to chart their own future, but they are denied their liberty by a handful of extremists whose pursuit of nuclear weapons prevents their country from taking its rightful place amongst the thriving. The Cubans are desperate for freedom -- and as that nation enters a period of transition, we must insist on free elections and free speech and free assembly. (Applause.) And in Sudan, freedom is denied and basic human rights are violated by a government that pursues genocide against its own citizens. My message to all those who suffer under tyranny is this: We will never excuse your oppressors. We will always stand for your freedom. (Applause.)


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    .

    . (2004 )

    .

    (1)

    (2) 9.11

    (3) .


    Suitcase nuclear bomb

    Suitcase Nuclear Bomb

    (SuitcaseNuclear Bomb) .

    . .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    1994 . .

    1994 (freeze) .

    : (non proliferation):

    : , ---

    (Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible, Dismantlement CVID)

    :

    ,

    9.11 .

    :


    North korea s missile bases

    North Koreas Missile Bases

    . ? (Labor) ?

    . .

    () .


    2006 7 5

    (2006.7.5)

    .

    .

    : --

    : --

    : --


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    7 4

    8 14 40

    .


    North korea s dilemma

    North Koreas Dilemma:

    • ?

    • ,


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    .

    Zoelick 2005 8

    .

    .

    ?


    From axis of evil to outpost of tyranny criminal regime

    From Axis of Evil to Outpost of Tyranny: , Criminal Regime

    • Self Appointed Leader,

    • .

    • ()


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    1,500-2,500

    4,800

    (1989 )

    Banco Delta Asia

    (2005.9.20):


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    2006 10 3 .

    2005 2 10() .

    6 2006 10 9 10 35 .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    2006.10.11


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    :

    OPLAN 5027 ( 5027)

    In February 2002 it was reported that the US military was updating

    OPLAN 5027 in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks.

    This includes a military calculation of the force needed to remove

    North Korean leader Kim Jung Il.

    .This case study in the application of the Bush administrations new

    doctrine of pre-emptive military action envisioned a swift attack, carried out without consulting South Korea, Americas ally on the peninsula

    2003 5 Rumsfeld .OPLAN 5030 ( 5030)

    Under the draft plan, US Forces Korea would conduct pre-conflict maneuvers to draw down North Koreas limited military resources. This might place such stress on the Norths military that it might provoke a military coup against the countrys leader, Kim Jong Il.

    www. globalsecurity.org


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    (2005) F117 Night Hawk .

    2007 1 2.13 15-20 .

    F15 E Alaska F15E 20 , .(2004 ) Do You Know Why ?


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    F-117 Night Hawk ?

    F-117

    .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    F-22

    200721533

    First 2 of 12 F-22s arrive in Japan

    By Eric Talmadge - The Associated Press Posted : Saturday Feb 17, 2007 8:25:48 EST

    TOKYO The U.S. took its newest and most expensive stealth fighter jet on the road Saturday, deploying the F-22 to an air base on the southern Japanese island of Okinawa for its first overseas mission. 219 10 ,

    12 .

    * 2007 5 10

    ( )


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    (RFA) 26, TV F-22 , . TV , F-22 8 .

    F-22 . F-117 , , .

    SR-71 , , .

    F-22 2.13 12 .

    F-22 18 , , B-2 .


    Thel tactical high energy laser

    THEL (Tactical High Energy Laser)

    THEL , 60 cm . TRW , , . 2002. 11.5 () . .

    1Km , THEL : 30 Km


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    : ?

    • ?

    • ? ?

    • ?

    • . ;

    • () ( ) ?


    2007 5 6 2007 2 13 10 2 4

    2007 : 5 6 (2007.2.13)/ (10.2-4)

    • , 60 , .

    • .

    • 5 60 5 , 2 100 .

    • 60 2007 11 .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    () ?

    2007 6 21

    6 Christopher Hill

    .

    ?

    ?

    ?

    ?

    2007.8. 28 , " , (taboo:) " .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    2007 10 2-4 .

    7 .

    .

    .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    :

    ? ?

    .

    2004

    .

    . ( 80 84 )


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    2007 6 9(), 2007 7 3()

    () . ? 1 .

    6 EU 7 10 , ( 2007.7.11)


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    :

    • 1. (65):

    • 2. (79)

    • 3. (79)

    • 4. (68)

    • 5. (71)

    • 6. (74)

    • 7. (81)

    • 8. (74) 2005.10.22

    • 9. (84)

    • 10. (77)

    • 11. (82)

    • 12. (78)

    • 13. (78)

    • 14. (78)

    • 15. (83)

    • 16. (81)

    • 17. (83)

    • 18. (83)

    • 19. (?)

    • 20. (86)

    • (78.7) (76.9) ( 73.1)- 2005

    • 2007 : 17 79


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    PSI

    (2003. 4.22, ): 5000 . 400 . 2006 4 . 2 23 , 22 , . . 3500

    F -111 .(2006 )


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    2004 10 .

    TEAM SAMURAI

    , 20 .( Observer)

    .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    .Capture of the So San ho

    2002 11 2002 12 12 . .


    Origins of psi

    Origins of PSI

    . 2003 4 ( ) . .

    , 20 , WMD PSI .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    :

    • .

    • ,

    • .

      .

      .

      ,

      .

    • , : (: , 2006), p. 12.


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    ?

    • 3

    • ?

    • . ?

    • :

    • :


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    • ?

    • , , ?

    • ?

      * .

      ?

      ?

      ?

      ?


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    • ,

    • .

      : NO MORE FREE LUNCH


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    • , , 3000: 747

    • ,

    • 3,000

    • .


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    :


    Koreaglobe 2008 3 11

    , ,

    The University of Texas ()

    Ohio State University

    : ,

    ,: (, 1995)

    (, 2004)

    (, 2005)

    (, 2007.1.8)

    .

    2008 3 11 . (, , , , internet source) . (20083 10 , )


  • Login