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Yellow Cards: Do they Matter?

Yellow Cards: Do they Matter?. Kurt W Rotthoff and Anne Anders. Data. Bundesliga (top German football League) Fall 2004 – Spring 2009 (5 seasons) Yellow Cards, Yellow to Red, Red, Fouls, Corner Kicks, Offside, Shots and Goals Win, Tie, Lose Ranks (top 5 at the end of last season).

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Yellow Cards: Do they Matter?

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  1. Yellow Cards: Do they Matter? Kurt W Rotthoff and Anne Anders

  2. Data • Bundesliga (top German football League) • Fall 2004 – Spring 2009 (5 seasons) • Yellow Cards, Yellow to Red, Red, Fouls, Corner Kicks, Offside, Shots and Goals • Win, Tie, Lose • Ranks (top 5 at the end of last season)

  3. Basic Findings • Receiving a Yellow or Red card decrease the probability of winning. • Fouls are significant and positive – aggressive play is valuable, pushing too hard is detrimental. • The probability changes are different for the home and away teams.

  4. Equation This is run (individually) for: Probit - Home team Win (1) (0 otherwise) Ordered Probit – Home team Win (2) Tie (1) Away Win (0)

  5. HWin 0.459 (there is a home field bias) • Tie 0.258 • AWin 0.282

  6. This is the part where you give your thoughts on the paper. • It’s my paper, so I’m biased.

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