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September 28, 2012 Draft Assessment Results

September 28, 2012 Draft Assessment Results. Technical Committee Meeting September 28, 2012. Other Assumptions. How many games do we need to do? There are 80 water years (sequential draw) , 77 load years (random draw), and wind year is lock-stepped with load year

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September 28, 2012 Draft Assessment Results

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  1. September 28, 2012Draft Assessment Results Technical Committee Meeting September 28, 2012

  2. Other Assumptions • How many games do we need to do? • There are 80 water years (sequential draw) , 77 load years (random draw), and wind year is lock-stepped with load year • Random draws do not cover all unique combinations of water and load/wind unless we do a large number of games • Too few games can produce uneven results • Which wind year set do we use? • There are 20 sets of temperature-correlated wind capacity factors • Look at “instantaneous” LOLP

  3. Number of Games • How many games? … (80 x 77 = 6160) • Sequential water pairs uniquely with load/wind by using a cycled sequence for the load years • Game #1 pairs 1929 water with 1929 load, and the run is essentially in lockstep for the first 77 games (game #77 pairs 2005 water and load) • Game #78 pairs 2006 water with 1929 load • Water year 1929 pairs with load year 1929, 1932, 1935, … , and so on

  4. Wind Capacity Sets • Which one? • For now, we selected set #18, which tested at the mid-range for LOLP at 4900 games • The test cases were done using older assumptions (70-year hydro, some differences in wind totals, other resources)

  5. Wind Capacity Sets

  6. Draft Assessment Results

  7. Draft Assessment Results

  8. September 28, 2012 Assessment

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