RELPA/PACAPS EW/ER component Close out summary

1. RELPA/PACAPS EW/ER componentClose out summary Sept 28th, 2009 Sarova Pan-Afric, Nairobi Summary of the achievements of the EW/ER component of RELPA/PACAPS, lessons learnt and opportunities.

2. Agenda • Problem analysis • Brief summary of activities & lessons learnt: • Understanding cross-border livelihoods – two pilot baselines • Predictive livelihood analysis for EW & response analysis • Food security and nutrition Crisis Calendar Analysis with partners to improve preparedness, contingency plans and response strategies • Improved preparedness within an agency/district establishing systems for fast and flexible response • Generally promote livelihood thinking into long term pastoral development strategies • Summary of opportunities to take EW/ER components forward

3. The Problem “response to crises is often too late ” Which results in: • Massive asset depletion • Livelihoods become ever more fragile • Only response possible is life-saving, not livelihood protection

4. Early warning Decision makers need to trust it More predictive outcome analysis Must be timely Must be used – to trigger a response Preparedness District-wide preparedness Agency level preparedness Donor level preparedness Problem Analysis

5. Response capacity Better problem analysis More response analysis A fast response A coordinated response plan National structures support District initiatives Funding Knowledge of funds available National level/district level funds available Optimal use of funds Longer term development funds have flexibility Problem Analysis

6. 1. Understanding cross-border livelihoods • Providing credible baselines as reference point • Comparison of neighbouring border zones • Understanding symbiotic relationships To: • Use in predictive livelihood outcome analysis to understand the impact of a defined problem • Guide regional program design and timing • Identify what are the important indicators to monitor and when – against a reference point

8. 10 page brief outlining: • Livelihood zone maps • Description • Similarities/differences • Historical timeline • Herd dynamics • Livestock migration • Seasonal calendars • Wealth breakdown • Sources of food and cash, Expenditure • Cross-border markets • Hazards • Response strategies • Recommendations Cross-border Livelihood Profiles

9. Cross-border Livelihood Analysis What was learnt? • Little up-to-date information was available for most cross-border areas • Strong technical team was required for a credible quantitative livelihood analysis • Access to some border areas in the region is limited due to insecurity • Country level EWS need to share more livelihood information on a regular basis • Partners operating in border areas need to collaborate in assessments & interventions

10. Opportunities • Sharing of national EW information regionally • Livelihood baselines & cross-border analysis in Kenya, Somalia & Ethiopia • ….and with other countries in the region – Sudan, Tanzania, Ug… • ….and in other regions (SA) • Use the information for improved predictive outcome analysis, contingency planning and response analysis • Incorporate other types of information in the profiles – more details on markets, livestock disease, conflict…. Partners involved • FEWS-NET • FSNAU • SC UK Kenya • SC UK Ethiopia

11. Gap 2. Predictive Livelihood Analysis The analysis suggests that post-shock, households will not be able to maintain their normal livelihood assets without assistance. 3 types of information combined: - Quantified baseline - Defined problem (quantified impact of the hazard) - Quantified response strategies (expandability or increase)

12. Gap = 4 shoats The problem - 50% price increase & reduced food aid Impact on food sources Impact on expenditure • They cope by: • reducing expenditure on staple/non • Selling 2 additional shoats (4-6) • Increasing self employment • Increasing reliance on gifts The impact of the shock will cause households to have a 44% food deficit before coping

13. Partners involved Opportunities • Increase use of livelihood perspective in early warning predictions • Outcome analysis done on a regular basis to provide recommendations for response strategies to current (El Nino) or recurrent (drought) hazards • Incorporate the analysis to quantify number of people at risk in each socio-economic group in each livelihood zone for targeting justification. • FSNWG – impact of price increase, drought & food aid reduction on pastoral households • SC UK Kenya – impact of destocking programme in NE Kenya

14. 3. Crisis Calendar Analysis • Assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of our partners’ contingency plans. • Developed a simple and practical tool to engage a range of actors to share a common understanding of needs, difficulties and possibilities of early response • The ‘crisis calendar’ added a predictive analysis to contingency plans assessing the current situation and looking at the possible crisis to come. • Developed a generic pastoral calendar to understand the impact of the ‘crisis’ and therefore what responses are appropriate when. • Then used the calendar to anticipate calendar months for implementation. • Establish start-up timeline • Included into contingency plans (district, organisation) • Link this to response coordination – who does what where when

15. The ‘normal’ year Milk ends

16. Analysis Identify geographical areas of concern Identify vulnerable groups Quantify the impact on the vulnerable groups Identify appropriate response & realistic start-up timelines Coordinate who is best placed to do what when in each sector – link to response coordination bodies Discuss how these responses can compliment development programmes and contribute to long term strategies What was done? Verify situation analysis Compare with trend data Identify who are most affected Quantify the impact of the combination of different ‘shocks’ on a household Incorporate the impact of the current situation into the CCA Analyse which response would be appropriate when Establish start-up timeline to incorporate into the response strategy Ensure included in contingency plans Link to response coordination Crisis Calendar Analysis: drought Mandera April 09 (FEWS-NET & SC UK)

17. Drought analysis – Mandera April 09

18. Assessment No contingency plan in place No analysis done on flood scenario Dissatisfaction with usefulness of existing CPs for droughts No mechanisms for coordination across-borders No mechanisms for joint strategic analysis and planning across-Districts What was done? Crisis calendar analysis Developed inter-agency cross-border response strategy Looked at start-up timelines Scheduled interventions and decisions Decided on cross-border coordination mechanisms Looked at what needs to change for this to work! Cross-border Crisis Calendar Analysis:Garissa-Afmadow El Niño/floods Contingency Planning

19. Flood analysis – Garissa & Afmadow Sept 09

20. The Crisis Calendar & Contingency Planning What was learnt? • Agencies had never developed combined strategy before – and all felt it essential • All agreed that CCA should be done on a regular basis • Deadline for start-up for many activities had already passed • Should do the CCA in good times too – preparing for the bad • Many activities and strategies need cross-border co-ordination e.g. RVF vaccination • Key is ownership of strategy/plans and accountability for response and outcomes • Communication and response with donors and Govt need more active management (on both sides) • Most important change needed is in ‘mind set’

21. Partners involved Opportunities • Continue to use the Crisis Calendar for preparedness within individual organisations, DSGs, FSNWG … • Keep contingency plan documents as working documents – update regularly with situation change • Use the Crisis Calendar logic to change mind sets in EW, implementing agencies and donors. • CARE Kenya/Somalia • SC UK Kenya/Ethiopia • VSF Swiss • Oxfam GB • ACF • FEWS-NET • FSNWG (all members) • UNICEF/FSNAU/WVI

22. 4. Preparedness clinics What was done? • Heads of departments sat together to analyse speed of response – for the first time! • Bottlenecks in response time were identified – for the first time • Everything that could be done in advance was identified – and shared • Causes of bottlenecks were identified – for the first time • Most problems were identified as coming from ways of working together, not ‘technical’ (the forms, the procedures)

23. Preparedness clinics What was learnt? • The cost of delay had never been considered • Most bottlenecks have solutions • Much preparatory had been done – but not shared • Fast systems only work with organisational support for a fast attitude (& donor….) • Response times needs to be managed as much as the response itself – from the top • Main issue is communication – being proactive about what each one needed from the other • Change in mind-set can bring major changes in speed

24. Opportunities • The preparedness clinic was offered to all our ELMT partners, but few took advantage of it. • Organisations need to identify why they are slow to respond – identify the bottlenecks and find the solutions. • Analyse start-up timeline • Communication between departments Partners involved • OXFAM GB • CARE Kenya/Somalia

25. 5. Long term pastoral development strategies What was done? • Facilitate the development of the Horn of Africa Pastoral Network as a forum to understand who is doing what where in support to pastoralists and collectively work towards a common long term strategy for pastoralist in the HOA. • Facilitate a seminar on Perceptions of Pastoralism and influence on a common long term pastoral strategy involving pastoral focused representatives from key donors, implementing agencies, government representatives, regional bodies and pastoralist. • The objective was to identify different constraints that are central to the pastoral livelihoods & develop recommendations to strengthen policies to support pastoralist

26. 5. Long term pastoral development strategies What was learnt? • There was a huge interest to come together as a network to discuss pastoral issues • Many organizations in Kenya and Ethiopia have pastoral focused programmes and were interested to find out who is doing what where • One seminar was not enough to develop pastoral long term strategies but initiated a dialogue • The need to engage the political, policy makers and elites over pastoral issues • There is need for larger mass engagements that brings together pastoralists, political leaders, civil societies, and policy makers • It is easy to initiate a forum but a challenge to maintain a momentum

27. Opportunities • Find a home for the network • Encourage further dialogue between pastoralists, political leaders, civil societies, and policy makers • Contribute to the FEWS-NET Food Security Stakeholders Database with HoA Pastoral Network members contact list • Finally build consensus towards a long term strategy for pastoralists Partners involved • 26 regional/international organizations – EW, implementing & donors • Five local organizations based in Kenya • Five government ministries representatives from Kenya and Ethiopia