Tonight’s Agenda

1. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

2. Tonight’s Agenda • Investment Competition • MacroEcon Data/ Global Issues • Libya Political Unrest • DATAPALOOZA

3. Ends the Week before Finals $50,000 in cash to invest No more than 1/3 of portfolio in one stock 1st Place = iPad Investment Competition

4. Airtime: Fri. Feb. 25 2011 | 11:35 AM ET Industry Summaries

5. Importance of Macro Econ Data • Current/ Projected Populations • Where’s the demand? • Inflation Rates • Affect how much money is lent out • Affects international trade • Unemployment & Income levels • High employment means more production • The higher the average income, the more consumption

6. Data to Keep an Eye on: Real GDP Crude Oil Prices Crude Oil Inventories Mortgage Default Rates Consumer Price Indexes Population Projections Per Capita Income New Commercial Loans Exchange Rates Unemployment Rates Fed Funds Rate

7. Economic Data: Mixed

8. Importance of Global Issues • The World is becoming more Globalized • What happens in Greece affects the US • What happens in the Middle East affects Europe • Seriousness of • Political Unrest

9. What’s Happing in Libya?

10. Libya Political Unrest • Gaddafi’s 41 year rule is being challenged by Anti- government forces • Over 1,000 people killed. • Libya on average has produced 1.6 Million crude oil barrels/day • Now only producing 400,000 • Different from Egypt?

11. Airtime: Fri. Feb. 25 2011 | 6:24 PM ET Gaddafi Cornered

12. What happens now?

13. Saudi Arabia • Claims they can ramp up production to meet demands • Much wealthier country, less risk for political unrest • Announced that they plan to spend $37 billion on their people • Unemployed/ poor

14. Oil: Prices • BRENT Crude is the European Warehouse • U.S. WTI Crude is the U.S Stockpile • BRENT is generally higher because Europe doesn't have as much reserves as the U.S. does. • BRENT hit $120 a barrel in the last week, while WTI only hit like $103 • Brent Crude: The global price benchmark • Record High: July 2008 at $150/ barrel • Past Thursday: $120/ barrel • If Brent moves past $130 we should experience demand elasticity.

15. Airtime: Fri. Feb. 25 2011 | 8:04 AM ET Saudi to Hike Oil Production

16. According to the Analysts… • For every $10 increase in crude oil, GDP decreases by 0.5% • Oil in Q4 of 2010 was $85 / barrel, U.S. WTI crude now, it's $97 a barrel  • Q4 GDP was revised down Friday to 2.8% from 3.3% • They say oil prices at $105 a barrel would most likely make U.S. GDP 1.8%

17. Oil: Where it Come From • OPEC- 12 countries (includes Libya) • 79% Worlds known reserves • 44% Worlds Oil Production • US Crude Oil Import Quantities • 1st Canada 2064 Thousand • 2nd Mexico 1223 Thousand • 3rd Saudi Arabia 1076 Thousand http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

20. Is oil overbought? Or will the price continue to rise?