Medicare beneficiaries choice of medicare choice plans a choice with screening model
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Medicare Beneficiaries’ Choice of Medicare + Choice Plans - A Choice-with-Screening Model. Qian Li Economics Department Indiana University Committee chair: Dr. Pravin K. Trivedi Committee member: Dr. Rusty Tchernis. Outline: Introduction Model Specification and Estimation Data Result

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Medicare beneficiaries choice of medicare choice plans a choice with screening model

Medicare Beneficiaries’ Choice of Medicare + Choice Plans - A Choice-with-Screening Model

Qian Li

Economics Department

Indiana University

Committee chair: Dr. Pravin K. Trivedi

Committee member: Dr. Rusty Tchernis


  • Outline:

    • Introduction

    • Model Specification and Estimation

    • Data

    • Result

    • Conclusion










  • Data:

    • Medicare Background:





  • Result

    Table 7: Coefficient Estimates for the 1st Stage in the Choice-with-Screening Model

Bold indicates that more than 90% of the posterior draws have the same sign as the posterior mean.

Likely screens:

Premium, Prescription Drug Coverage ,Vision Service Coverage

Unlikely screens:

Non-network Doctor/hospital Service Coverage , Dental Service Coverage

Low mean demand → slow convergence

Not sure screens:

Routine Physical Exam Coverage

Data lack of variation


  • Result

    Table 8:Coefficient Estimates for the 2nd Stage in the Choice-with-Screening Model

Bold indicates that more than 90% of the posterior draws have the same sign as the posterior mean.


  • Result

    Put two stages’ result together

Average expected preference:

Likely screens: insignificant and small

Unlikely screens: significant, big and negative

Not sure screens: significant, big and negative


  • Result

    Table 11:Coefficient Estimates for the Random Coefficient MNP Model

Bold indicates that more than 90% of the posterior draws have the same sign as the posterior mean.


Coefficient Estimates for the 2nd Stage in the Choice-with-Screening Model

log marginal density of the data: -210.6577

Coefficient Estimates for the Random Coefficient MNP Model

log marginal density of the data: -354.9882


  • Result

    Simulate the choice probability

Table 13:Hypothetical Choice Sets in the Choice Probability Study

Table 14:Probability of Choosing M+C Plan, Plan Attribute Effect

Bold indicates that the difference between the Screening Model and the MNP Model is greater that 0.05.


Table 16: Probability of Choosing M+C Plan, Demographics Effect

Bold indicates that the difference from the baseline is greater than 2%.


Table 17: EffectDifference of Choice Prob. in Screening Model and in MNP Model

Bold indicates that the difference from the baseline is greater than 2%.



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