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The Twin Cities’ Changing Labor Market. Kyle Uphoff Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) Labor Market Information Office www.mnwfc.org/lmi. Where can we (or employers) find this information? www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi.

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The twin cities changing labor market
The Twin Cities’ Changing Labor Market

Kyle Uphoff

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

  • Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED)

  • Labor Market Information Office

  • www.mnwfc.org/lmi

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Where can we or employers find this information www deed state mn us lmi
Where can we (or employers) find this information? www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


About deed s regional analysts
About DEED’s Regional Analysts

  • Collaborate with regional stakeholders on new research

  • Extend access to DEED reports and statistics

  • Conduct presentations and training onregional economy & labor market

  • Original research and analysis intended to answer “the tough questions”

  • Five regional analystsstationed across the state

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Where have we been
Where have we been?

  • Employment in the Twin Cities is up 37,000 jobs over the last 6 years- a 2.1 percent increase.

  • The unemployment rate is at 3.3%. 61,000 unemployed but that doesn’t count “discouraged” workers or the underemployed

  • Monthly unemployment insurance claims are down considerably from the recession

  • Why are we still talking about an event from 5 years ago?

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Where are we at right now
Where are we at right now?

  • Unemployment and UI claims are trending downward.

  • Renewed growth in personnel supply services

  • Overall job growth showing faster growth.

  • Corporations showing profits- a necessary precondition for job growth.

  • An end to loose labor markets? If so, what will the coming labor market look like? Structural shifts will change the face of employment…

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Where have we been recently
Where have we been recently?

  • The Twin Cities has gained 37,000 jobs since August 2000 (an increase of 2.1%)

  • Manufacturing: -33,500

    • Fabricated Metals: -6,000

    • Machinery Mfg.: -9,300

    • Computer/Electronics: -6,200

  • Transportation: -7,100

  • Information: -11,800

  • Prof. & Technical Services: -3,000

  • Mgmt. of Companies: -2,200

  • Employment Agencies: -7,100

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Some industries have been hiring over the last 6 years
Some industries have been hiring over the last 6 years

  • Healthcare: +23,800

  • Leisure and Hospitality: +26,100

  • Social Assistance: +10,700

  • Construction: +11,400

  • Credit Intermediation: +10,200

  • Real Estate: +3,700

  • Medical Supplies Mfg: +3,600

  • Medical Devices Etc.: +2,300

  • Legal Services: +2,200

  • Education: +5,700

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Employment change since 1991 mn manufacturing vs healthcare
Employment Change since 1991: MN Manufacturing vs. Healthcare

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Labor markets tighten and loosen but its not the same for all industries

The Minnesota Job Vacancy Survey: Healthcare

Numbers and job titles of current openings

How long have positions been open?

Required education & experience?

Starting wage offers?

Labor markets tighten and loosen: but its not the same for all industries

www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/publications/jobvacancy/

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Job vacancy survey findings twin cities

37,300 job openings in the job market during 2nd Q 2006 Healthcare

2.4% job vacancy rate

Hiring demand is highest in some high-skill occupations:

Architecture and engineering

Healthcare support

Management

Healthcare practitioners and technical

Computer and mathematical

Business and financial

Job Vacancy Survey Findings: Twin Cities

Beginnings of a skills shortage? Too early to tell!

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Vacancies are down but the nature of vacancies has changed as well
Vacancies are down but the “nature” of vacancies has changed as well.

Source: DEED, Labor Market Information Office, Minnesota Job Vacancy Survey, 4Q 2005.

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Are we heading for skill shortages too early to tell

Occupations gaining the most openings (2003-06) changed as well.

Computer-related +345%

Sciences: +132%

Management: +121%

Engineering: +85%

Education: +74%

Office/Admin: +58%

Food Preparation: +58%

Transportation: +58%

Business & Fin. Ops: +57%

Occupations gaining (losing) the least openings (2003-06)

Sales: +31%

Production: +29%

Building Maint.: +26%

Healthcare Practitioners: +23%

Personal Svcs. +8%

Installation & Repair: -2%

Healthcare Support: -14%

Construction: -23%

Comm./Social Svcs. -23%

Are we heading for skill shortages? (too early to tell)

48% of total Job Vacancies require more than a high school diploma

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Occupations with the most vacancies

Registered Nurses changed as well.

Install., maintenance, repair

LPNs

Business Operations

Software Engineers

Management Analysts

IT Managers

Managers, all other

Med. Lab. Technicians

Home Health Aides

Laborers/Material Movers

Nurses Aides & Orderlies

Customers Service Reps.

Truck Drivers

Receptionists/Info. Clerks

Security Guards

Occupations with the most vacancies

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Future prospect which industries and occupations are projected to grow in coming years

Project industry trends for state and regions changed as well.

Next, overlay industry growth with state staffing matrix

Result: Occupational projections

www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/tools/projections

Future Prospect: Which industries and occupations are projected to grow in coming years?

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Projections
Projections changed as well.

  • Projections are estimated over a 10 year period every two years for the state and regions (also nationally).

  • Projections are largely based on past trends. We cannot predict:

    • Recessions, depressions, energy crises...

    • Wars

    • Natural Disasters

    • Technology change

    • Legislation

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Mn industry projections 2004 2014
MN Industry Projections: 2004-2014 changed as well.

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Mn industry projections 2004 2014 employment loss
MN Industry Projections (2004-2014) changed as well.Employment Loss

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Mn occupational projections 2004 14
MN Occupational Projections: 2004-14 changed as well.

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Replacement will drive openings in production related occupations
Replacement will drive openings in Production Related Occupations:

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Year of peak manufacturing employment
Year of Peak Manufacturing Employment Occupations:

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


The aging population will drive healthcare growth between 2004 2014
The aging population will drive healthcare growth between 2004-2014

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Some occupations will lose employment 2004 2014
Some occupations will lose employment, 2004-2014 2004-2014

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Employment and Innovation 2004-2014

Employment

Commoditization

Maturation or

“the Golden Age”

Microchips?

Computer Mfg?

Correction

Expansion/

Speculation?

IT Services?

Inception

Nanotech?

Biotech?

Time

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Projected Percent Employment Growth by Educational and Training

Requirement: Minnesota 2002-2012

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Workforce shortages or skills shortages 2002 2012

Skills areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations:

Reading Comprehension

Active Listening

Speaking

Writing

Active Learning

Coordination

Monitoring

Instructing

Critical Thinking

Knowledge areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations:

Customer Service

Mathematics

Clerical

Education/Training

English

Sales/marketing

Psychology

Computers/electronics

Administration & Mgmt.

Workforce shortages or skills shortages (2002-2012)

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Demographics working in an era of shortage labor availability twin cities region
Demographics: Working in an era of shortage occupations:Labor Availability- Twin Cities Region

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Projected population distribution twin cities 2000 2030
Projected Population Distribution: occupations:Twin Cities, 2000-2030

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Labor force growth slows dramatically after 2015
Labor Force growth slows dramatically after 2015 occupations:

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


While renewed economic growth will tighten the labor market demographics play an even bigger role
While renewed economic growth will tighten the labor market, demographics play an even bigger role.

How long will they stay

In the labor force?

How productive can they be?

Will there be enough?

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Labor force participation 2000
Labor Force Participation, 2000 demographics play an even bigger role.

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Labor availability
Labor Availability demographics play an even bigger role.

  • Overall participation rates have not grown with expanding employment. Some of the decrease in Unemployment rate has to do with job seekers dropping out of the labor market.

  • Participation rates for youth and women have been in decline- are the same factors at work?

    • Lack of opportunity may be at work for youth

    • Some of the downturn for women may have to do with demographics

    • A larger issue may be education- more people are going to school, especially women.

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Population change 1990 to 2000
% Population Change 1990 to 2000 demographics play an even bigger role.

Source: 1990 & 2000 Census

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Percent of population age 45
Percent of Population Age 45+ demographics play an even bigger role.

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Female labor force participation
Female Labor Force Participation demographics play an even bigger role.

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Female labor force participation 2000
Female Labor Force Participation, 2000 demographics play an even bigger role.

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Percent of total occupational positions filled by women u s
Percent of Total Occupational Positions filled by Women : U.S.

BLS: Women at Work: A Visual Essay

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Will workplace conditions change with skills shortages
Will workplace conditions change with skills shortages? U.S.

  • The percent of women in professional business positions has doubled between 1972 allowing employers to tap into a new pool of talent. However,…

    • 37% of women in professional positions take time off of work voluntarily (24% for men).

    • Of those who take off, 93% would like to return to work but experience major reductions in salary.

    • 74% come back to work but 0% report that they would prefer to return to their former place of work*

      * “Off Ramps and On-ramps, Keeping Talented women on the road to success” Harvard Business Review, March 2005

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


What factors could impact a skills or workforce shortage
What Factors could Impact a U.S.Skills or Workforce Shortage?

  • Economic growth attracts the necessary inmigrants from beyond MN.

  • Outsourcing/Offshoring: Some jobs leave the state due to lower wages or simple labor availability

  • Technology: Jobs go away everywhere but the ones that remain require high skills. Is this as scary as outsourcing?

  • Retirement on hold: Pension funds become so depleted that people hold off retirement.

  • What else?

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Employer solutions
Employer Solutions U.S.

  • Increase Hours- Get more work from fewer workers.

  • Capital Deepening: Substitute technology for labor.

  • Seek new workers from previously underutilized labor pools

    • Immigrants

    • The Disabled

    • Retirees

    • The Underemployed

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Future prospects for local employers
Future Prospects for Local Employers U.S.

  • Increasing labor shortage as the economy emerges from the shadow of recession.

  • Wage pressure for skilled workers.

  • Increasing use of technology to increase productivity.

  • Greater use of customized training- particularly important for small employers.

  • Increased diversity in the workplace

    • Communication Issues

    • Assistive technology and flexible hours etc.

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Occupational wages employment
Occupational Wages & Employment U.S.

  • Occupational Employment & Wage Stats (OES) are based on rolling survey of 22,000 employers

  • Updated quarterly and annually for state, regions, and MSAs

    • Third Quarter 2005

  • Distribution stats for 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles

  • Minnesota Salary Tool

  • www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/tools/oes/

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


Where can i get this information
Where can I get this Information? U.S.

  • DEED Website: www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi

  • DEED Publications Hotline: 651-296-6545

  • DEED Twin Cities Regional Analyst: Rachel Hillman

    • 651-296-5347

  • Regional Analysis Unit Manager: Kyle Uphoff

    • 651-296-8713

  • DEED LMI Help Line: 651-282-2714

Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Labor Market Information Office


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