Food Security & Nutrition Working Group Eastern and Central African Region

1. Food Security & Nutrition Working GroupEastern and Central African Region

2. Current Conditions: Regional Highlights Mostly stable with specific areas in crisis or emergency (CAR/DRC/South Sudan) and pockets at risk of further deterioration (Burundi, Kenya, Djibouti, Sudan)

3. Current Conditions – Regional Highlights • UgandaFEWSNET • The second season harvests from November to January have increased supplies on the market. • Staple food prices are for the most part not declining. • Most agricultural areas in bimodal areas remain at Minimal (IPC Phase 1). • Poor agro pastoral households in Karamoja have entered the lean season one-month early • No decline in IPC phase in due to planned humanitarian assistance from April to June and small ruminant sales Karamoja stressed but good generally and expectations for good for March-September rains

4. SudanFEWSNETAl Jazeera • The numbers in IPC 3 are expected to increase with the early onset of lean season in Mar/Apr. • Unseasonal food-price increases reported as well as reduced labour opportunities • Currency falling – unemployment rising and concerns civil stability may be undermined • Current Conditions – Regional Highlights Generally good conditions but South Kordofan biggest food security concern due to impacts of conflict

5. EritreaJRC • The 2013/2014 Bahri rains have been generally satisfactory in North Red Sea Region • NDVI seasonally normal for main pastoral areas • Poor rainfall in some cropping areas may lead to below performance (main cropping season for the country occurs later in the year) • Current Conditions – Regional Highlights Likely - seasonally normal conditions

6. DjiboutiFEWSNETFAOGoD • The severely food insecure, mainly in pastoral south-eastern areas • Annual inflation has increased slightly to 3.2% in January • 70% of rural households considered food insecure in Feb 2014, unchanged from 2 years earlier. • The October to February Xays/Dadaa rains were mostly normal • Decreasing amounts of food aid • Southeast Pastoral-Border livelihood zone, Obock Region, and Northwest Pastoral livelihood zone will enter Crisis (IPC Phase 3) • Larger food secure populations have been reported around Ville de Djibouti in the past • Current Conditions – Regional Highlights Most rural areas and households stressed some areas likely to fall into crisis by April

7. Current Conditions – Regional Highlights • BurundiFEWSNETFAOGTT • Ongoing harvests are replenishing household food stocks • Price fluctuations continue to be above the seasonal norm. • Plant diseases are affecting banana and cassava across the country and are likely to impact on household stocks and increase market prices • Most of the country is IPC phase 1 -poor households in the Plateaux Humides could slide into Stressed levels (IPC Phase 2) between March and May/June • Chronic issues in Plateaux Humideshave worsened as traditional farming is proving inadequate for subsistence let alone improvement for the most vulnerable Minimal food insecurity, underlying chronic issues in PlateauxHumides may lead to stress

8. Current Conditions – Regional Highlights • DRC GTT FAOPronanutMETTELSAT • Prices of staples were reported stable or lower in February than those reported in January. • March to May rainfall is expected to be seasonally normal with the possibility of above normal rainfall in the north-east • The national nutrition surveillance system reported 10 health zones out of 244 reporting as “alert” with the others as “watch” or “under control” • conflict and displacement along the border of CAR (provinces of Equateur and Orientale Province), as well as armed groups in the Kivus continues to be cause of concern & food insecurity Poor but stable conditions with CAR border conflict and displacement continuing to cause concern and food insecurity

9. Current Conditions – Regional Highlights • KenyaGoKFEWSNETFAO ASAL Alliance OXFAM • Below average short-rains production affecting food security but most of the country remains stressed (IPC Phase 2) • Prices of maize firmed up in recent months despite the newly harvested crops. • The long rains are likely to be normal to above normal for the western half of the country and normal to below normal in the east. • Food markets in Turkana reported to be operating normally • Food security assessments in Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera and Wajir expose extreme levels of poverty and vulnerability in parts of these communities moreso than impacts of “drought” – the most vulnerable have no livestock and depend on charcoal/fire wood, petty trade and casual labour Stable seasonal conditions for most of the country with chronic vulnerabilities (mostly poverty) leading to pockets of crisis.

10. Current Conditions: Hotspots & Watch HOTSPOTS CAR(Conflict, Displacement, Access) FAO millions at risk of a full-scale food and nutrition security crisis due to low production in 2013 coupled with prevailing chronic countrywide malnutrition, extreme poverty and inappropriate sanitation South Sudan (Conflict, Displacement) AllAfricaFS Cluster IGAD and Egypt sending troops. Concerns for displaced as rainy season looms. • Hotspots

11. Outlook: April to June 2014 • Outlook • Easing of seasonal deterioration and improving with the onset of the rains • Key factors of food security performing as per seasonal norm • dry season and intensifying lean season conditions unlikely to vary from the seasonal norm • Seasonal deterioration in the IPC phase classification in parts of Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan and Kenya is anticipated • The onset of March to May rains in the region will trigger seasonal food security and nutrition improvements • Rains expected to be near normal for much of the region and below normal in the eastern parts of the region • Concern remains focused on IDPs in South Sudan and CAR as well as refugees originating from those countries and housed in neighbouring countries • Seasonally normal lean period anticipated which should dissipate with the coming of the rains. Food & nutrition security crises continue in South Sudan and CAR

12. Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4) • Current Conditions Seasonal increase reported in Somalia.

13. Current Situation: Vegetation and Agriculture Climate • Impact of abnormally good February rainfall visible in large parts of Kenya and Ethiopia. Pastoral areas in Turkana and close to border with Somalia still very dry. • Below average NDVI in Uganda, linked to high temperatures? • Pastoral areas in North West and North East Somalia slightly better than seasonal average

14. Current situation • Climate

15. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 • Climate

16. Consensus Regional Climate Outlook for March to May 2014 • Climate

17. Projected global climate forcing processes beyond May 2014 • Climate • Most computer model forecasts indicate likely development of a weak El Niño during the second half of the year 2014. • Updates will be released on regular basis and detailed climate outlook for the June to August 2014 rainfall season will be provided at the Thirty Seventh Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF37) to be held in Khartoum, Sudan in May 2014

18. Refugees

19. Refugees

20. South Sudan emergency Refugees • Outflow • Number of refugees crossing into Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan and Uganda increased to over 217,911 since 15th December 2013. • IDPs • Number of IDPs, are currently 708,900 (14th March) ,UNMISS reported a drop in the number of people seeking protection in its bases. • Food Security. • April/May rainy season is arriving with full pre-positioning impossible • Most roads/routes to Upper Nile inaccessible. Few routes to Unity, but security challenges • IPC classification and livestock report from FAO very bleak (3.9-4.3 million facing food insecurity) • Security • Situation remains tense with an increase in reported incidents by UN Security • UN agencies reporting increase in road blocks, searches and harassment • IGAD members have authorized the prompt deployment of the Protection and Deterrent Force (PDF) as part of the IGAD Monitoring and Verification Mechanism in South Sudan • Fundraising • South Sudan Situation Refugee Appeal has been launched seeking $370.8 million through December 2014 for an estimated 340,000 South Sudanese refugees.

21. Nutrition/Food security issues Refugees • Uganda (81,345 since 15th December) • The table below shows the MUAC screening results(as of February 2014) for Camps in Uganda. • ===>Malnutrition rates are increasing due to deteriorating conditions of new arrivals • New arrivals are mentioning that people are trapped in Malakal and Bor without shelter, food or water • 892 new arrivals last week • All services are in place for protection and assistance, but challenged • Sudan(42,011 refugees). • WFP provided emergency assistance to about 18,000 new arrivals and seeking $3.5 million • About 350 new arrivals from S. Sudan per day in Alagaya and Kilo 10 • Screening results show a proxy GAM of above 20% • Minimum Operating Standards are agreed but access remains a challenge

22. Nutrition/Food security issues Refugees • South Sudan (234,304) • 1,634 refugees registered from CAR • Inaccessibility of Upper Nile and Unity camps hinders rainy season food pre-positioning. • Full ration given in March and prepositioned for April in Unity • In upper Nile, partial ration was given for March and it is not clear if full basket will be available for April. • AjoungThok population at 15,000 and all new arrivals to Yida are transported to Ajoung for services • Increased tensions between refugees and host community in Maban (Yusuf Batil) due to allegations of livestock theft

23. Nutrition/Food security issues Refugees • Ethiopia (65,389 since 15th December) • Rate of new arrivals has risen and more are reported to be on their way. • Space constraints and flooding are key concerns • Measles Vaccination and Vitamin A supplementation ongoing in Pagak with 22 suspected cases of measles identified in Pagak, Lare and Leitchuor. • Malnutrition rates in new arrivals to Pagak are critically high (39% GAM). Relocation of 897 malnourished children and their families to the camps was completed • Refugees report coming from far away from border and having sought refuge in other parts of South Sudan before finally crossing • Kenya (25,099 since 15th December) • Rate of new arrivals around 360 per day. • Registration done using biometrics and will contribute to efficient and accurate distributions. • Negotiations still underway for land for new camp. • High number of unaccompanied minors and separated children in Kakuma (13,437) • WFP reports pipeline stress from April, if more resources are not received or number of new arrivals exceed planning figure there could be shortfalls

24. CAR Refugees • Population of concern (PoC) • 857,000 IDPs and 16,581 refugees (essentially of DRC and Sudan origin). • 296,164 CAR refugees in Cameroon, Chad, DRC. • Security • The situation still remains volatile. • Plans underway to deploy more international troops and relocation of populations at risk (as the last resort). • Food security • Funding to ensure continued food distribution to all PoC still a concern; • Food crisis looming due to continued violence, IDPs in M’baiki lack food and water. • Chad(8,000 refugees since Dec 2013) • More influx foreseen if security and humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate. • The refugees lack decent shelter, water and food. • Malnutrition rates in Abgadam camp is deteriorating ,23% GAM as of February due to the increasing food insecurity. • Cameroon(44,252 refugees since March 2013) • More than 20% of all children arriving are malnourished • Many have walked over a month, hiding in bushes without food or clean water and over 80% are arriving ill (malaria, URTI, diarrhea). 16 have died in January and February including 6 from SAM.

25. Registered Refugees/Asylum Seekers & IDPs • Displacement Source: UNHCR • Stable numbers from January 2014

26. BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR BETTER... • Nutrition Building capacity for better food security programming in emergency and rehabilitation contexts Workshop Feedback to FSNWG NUTRITION AND FOOD SECURITY PROGRAMMING SEED SECURITY ASSESSMENT ACCOUNTABILITY TO AFFECTED POPULATIONS

27. BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR BETTER... Conceptual Framework of Malnutrition • Nutrition Food security Nutrition security

28. BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR BETTER... Key messages • Nutrition • Food Security and Nutrition are not sectors but common goals, • Need for joint comprehensive food security, nutrition and vulnerability assessments based on well defined and measurable criteria, • Problem and solution trees (on malnutrition) can be used to clearly define impact pathways • There is need for a clear understanding of the livelihoods before building the problem and solution trees for malnutrition. (Need for a gender focus too) • A precise M&E system, with clear food security and nutrition indicators, help monitor and evaluate these pathways throughout project cycle, • Coordination and advocacy should be enhanced at government and policy levels to ensure sustainability ( e.g, SUN Movement),

29. Food Prices Trends in the Region • Prices Overall • Cereal prices remained generally stable or declined in February compared to January 2014 due to improved internal availabilities (GIEWS, Food Price Monitor, Mar 2014) • But white sorghum prices increased atypically across markets in Sudan and in South Sudan(Fewsnet, Mar 2015) • Uganda • Retail Prices of maize grain declined by 9% in February compared to January 2014 across the country, and by 3% in Karamoja (WFP, Mar 2013); • Retail prices of sorghum fell by 4% compared, but increased by 12% in Karamoja over the same period. Kenya • Wholesale prices of maize in February increased marginally in Eldoret and Nairobi (+1.65% and +0.3%) compared to Jan 2014 (WFP, Mar 2014). • However, these prices were significantly higher than levels in Feb 2013 (by 11% in Eldoret, 6% in Kisumu and 8% in Nairobi) (WFP, Mar 2014).

30. Ethiopia • Maize prices remained stable following a favourable Meher harvest (WFP, Mar 2014). • But wholesale prices of Teff in Addis increased by 4% due to growing export and increased domestic demand (WFP, Mar 2014). • Meanwhile there were month-to-month price increases for the main staples across markets in southern, central and eastern Oromia, SNNPR and Tigray Somalia • Local grain prices increased in February due to reduced stock levels following below normal Deyr2013/2014 production in southern regions (FSNAU, Feb 2014); • But prices of maize and sorghum considerably above Feb 2013 levels (GIEWS, March 2014). • Pricesof imported commodities (rice, sugar, vegetable oil & wheat flour) continued declining on monthly and annual basis (FSNAU, Feb 2014). • Prices CPI Monthly trends (CPI March 2007=100) – FSNAU, Feb 2014

31. Regional Seasonal Calendar Response Analysis Source: http://www.disasterriskreduction.net/east-central-africa/fsnwg Note: This calendar is for illustrations only as it is not yet updated to reflect current changes

32. Response Analysis Assessment to determine current situation & forecast for the next season - ASAL Alliance Current situation Feb/Mar 2014 Hazards • Insecurities/devolution • Rain delayed/early cessation • Longer/hotter dry season • Southern Turk. - abnormal migration • Locust (north-east areas) Impact With typical levels of food aid – all wealth groups in all LZ will remain in IPC phase 2 (stressed) • KAP – irrigation not working • TBP – very poor - dependent on aid (42%) & food pipeline; • Family splitting • Levels of current cash transfer are adequate (around Ksh1200 per month)

33. Predictive analysis: Next 6 months if LR fail - Impact on TCP & TBP • Withtypical levels of food/cash aid,the poorer groups are stressed but cope by expanding on bush products & labour by 5-10%. • Interestingly the better-off groups will have small threshold deficits SD 4% and LD 15% as they receive less aid and are more affected by drought • In the absence of food/cash transfers, the better-off groups cash equivalents to cover deficits is around Ksh 4-5,000 per month Response Analysis

34. Response Analysis Response Options (Pros & Cons Analysis)

35. Response Analysis Longer-term considerations & advocacy ADVOCACY ACTIONS Engagement with County Government, links with contingency plans De-block markets De-block migration routes The role of food aid with functioning markets

36. What are cereal postharvest losses ? Technology Agents of postharvest grain loss Moulds Rodents Insects

37. Response Analysis What are postharvest losses? cont’d Technology Weight loss Quality loss Health and nutritional losses Not fit for humans to consume Lost from the PH chain Lost opportunity for sales in higher value markets The value of quality losses may be greater than weight losses

38. Links in the postharvest chain considered by APHLIS Response Analysis Technology

39. What is APHLIS? Response Analysis Technology Data from published and ‘grey’ literature PHL profile figures Maps APHLIS cereal weight loss estimates by province APHLIS algorithm Seasonal factors Tables Annual data from APHLIS network

40. Response Analysis How is APHLIS used? Technology • APHLIS offers the only overview of grain postharvest weight losses and is used in support of – • agricultural policy formulation • identifying opportunities to improve value chains • improving food security (cereal supply estimates) • monitoring and evaluating loss reduction activities • providing recommendations on how to reduce weight and quality losses

41. Maps of % weight loss Response Analysis Technology

42. Maps of loss density Response Analysis Technology MT/km2

43. Where next for APHLIS Technology Must seek sustainability as an established element of African agricultural information systems Must find better approaches to data gathering from the ground and opportunities for automatic data gathering Must continue to engage in research and to develop features that serve the needs of loss reduction Must continue to develop relationships with institutions that are actually implementing loss reduction http://www.aphlis.net/

44. AOB • Technology & Innovation of FSNWG members work • Food Security Briefs • April WFP • May OXFAM • JuneFEWSNET • Response Options Working group • Begin work in March • FAOs Co-Chair • Stephen McDowell will finish his work with FAO/FSNWG end of March • Paul Opio will assume FAO’s responsibilities as co-chair

45. Upcoming Events • Next FSNWG Meeting: • ISS, Nairobi Thursday, April 17, 2014 • Early Warning Systems • South SudanMarch/April TBC • CAR March/April TBC • Uganda (Karamoja) April TBC • MAS • Meeting 25 March • Whose Resilience? • UNICEF – Situating Basic Services in the Resilience Discussion • Nairobi (Southern Sun) 21 March

46. March Presentation Seeing business opportunities where others don’t Esther Muiruri esther.muiruri@equitybank.co.ke General Manager Marketing-Agri Business, Equity Bank There is enormous potential in rural areas – both for those currently farming as well as the youth who will likely move on to different ventures. We must only understand how to do business with themto unlock that potential • FSNWG 2014/15 Whose Resilience? • Changing livelihoods – changes the pathways to “resilience” • Begin mapping future livelihoods and “life objectives/aspirations” – particularly with youth • Understand how parents and children intend to realise (plans/strategies) their “objectives/aspirations” • Traditional subsistence is giving to commercial production and urbanisation • How can the transition to urbanisation/settlement occur successfully/safely • How can people containing to live in rural areas do so with greater dignity, security and success?