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On the road to better…. Response analysis FSNWG Food Security and Nutrition Working Group

On the road to better…. Response analysis FSNWG Food Security and Nutrition Working Group Efforts in 2012 & 2013. July 2010. Situation & Response analysis – FSNWG 2012. 1. Situation Analysis with hotspot details Where are we now? .

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On the road to better…. Response analysis FSNWG Food Security and Nutrition Working Group

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  1. On the road to better…. Response analysis FSNWGFood Security and Nutrition Working Group Efforts in 2012 & 2013 July 2010

  2. Situation & Response analysis – FSNWG 2012 1. Situation Analysis with hotspot details Where are we now? 2. Situation Analysis seasonality for each livelihood system Where are we now? 3. Response analysis What could we be doing now? Regional IPC Map Seasonal Calendars Response matrix 4. Predictive Analysis 3-6 month forecast Where are we going? 5. Predictive Analysis 3-6 month forecast for each livelihood system and wealth group Where are we going? 7. ADVOCACY & PLANNING What should we do? 6. Response analysis 3-6 month action plan What could we plan?

  3. December 2012 On the road to better…. Response analysis: July 2010 • …past attempts have been challenging • …is complex, with various layers of enquiry to define the most appropriate response • …is context specific – down to LZ & district level • …its logical or simple for those with intimate knowledge of an area • …needs to link emergency activities to long-term sustainable development goals – identification of no regrets options • …should incorporate lessons from past good practice • …investigate options outside the box – innovation is key

  4. Finding a common framework using different approaches…..2012

  5. Response Analysis Considerations adapted from Dan Maxwell et al. ODI

  6. Regional seasonal calendars

  7. Seasonal response options: April – June 2013….. • Looking forward to next dry season July – Sept • Prioritise to keep kids in school • Preserve milk and fodder for the dry season • Diversification of off-farm income • Expansion of safety nets/ FSL support • Surge capacity of sectors • Design short-term interventions contribute to long-term objectives • Opportunity to invest in long-term – innovation, commercialisation, engage private sector, targeting settled poor • Monitor • Monitor rain performance and pasture and water regeneration, migration • Monitor crop performance, if rains below- normal check marginal farmers/rainfed areas

  8. Cross-border Crisis Calendar Analysis: 2008/9Garissa-Afmadow El Niño/floods Contingency Planning What was done? • Crisis calendar analysis • Developed inter-agency cross-border response strategy • Looked at start-up timelines • Scheduled interventions and decisions • Decided on cross-border coordination mechanisms • Looked at what needs to change for this to work! Assessment No contingency plan in place No analysis done on flood scenario Dissatisfaction with usefulness of existing CPs for droughts No mechanisms for coordination across-borders No mechanisms for joint strategic analysis and planning across-Districts

  9. Flood analysis – Garissa & Afmadow Sept 09

  10. Drought Wajir Pastoralists 2010/2011 – survival threshold deficits WSG: P 58% WSG: M 50% WSG: R 30%

  11. Poor Livelihood deficit 12% Survival deficit 10% Impact of moderate El-Niño 2012 : Turkana Agro-past KerioRiverine Agro-pastoralists Very poor Livelihood deficit 11% Survival deficit 35% Turkwell Riverine Agro-pastoralists Very poor Livelihood deficit 26% Survival deficit 9%

  12. September 2012 FSNWG Livestock & pastoral Sub-groupIdentification of response activities Sectors • Livestock health & feed • Human nutrition, health & sanitation • Access & availability of food • Water harvesting & collection • Conflict & cross-border issues • Infra-structure • Access to markets & market prices • Community-based Early Warning + Implications for programming + Drawing on best practice in similar analogue years + targeting hotspots & using on-going programming as entry points

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