PUBLIC OPINION Based upon materials from Roskin’s Text and Dr. Rosenberg Lectures

1. PUBLIC OPINION Based upon materials from Roskin’s Text and Dr. Rosenberg Lectures

2. Public Opinion • Is citizens’ reaction to current, specific issues and events. • Plays a major role in modern democracy. • Is different from political culture. • Includes an array of diverse attitudes that can change quickly. • Sometimes shows widespread ignorance. • Is often led or manipulated by interest groups. • Is a point of vulnerability for any government .

3. Scientific Method

4. Components of an Attitude • Affective • Cognitive • Behaviorial

5. Types of Variables

6. Dimensions of and Attitude • Direction • Location • Intensity • Centrality • Salence

7. Salience • Literally, that which jumps out • The importance of given issues in public opinion • The degree to which categories and issues affect the public opinion of a country

8. Factors that Shape Public Opinion • Social class • Education • Region • Religion • Age • Gender • Ethnic group

9. National Council on Public Polls20 Questions Journalist’s Should Ask • Who did the poll? • Who paid for the poll and why was it done? • How many people were interviewed for the survey? • How were those people chosen? • What area (nation, state, or region) or what group(teachers,lawyers, Democratic voters, etc.) were these people chosen from? • Are the results based on the answers of all the people interviewed? • Who should have been interviewed and was not? Or do response rates matter? • When was the poll done? • How were the interviews conducted? • What about polls on the Internet or World Wide Web?

10. National Council on Public Polls20 Questions Journalist’s Should Ask (cont.) 11. What is the sampling error for the poll results? 12. Who’s on first? 13. What other kinds of factors can skew poll results? 14. What questions were asked? 15. In what order were the questions asked? 16. What about "push polls?" 17. What other polls have been done on this topic? Do they say the same thing? If they are different, why are they different? 18. What about exit polls? 19. What else needs to be included in the report of the poll? 20. So I've asked all the questions. The answers sound good. Should we report the results?

11. Classic Opinion Curves • Skewed • A matter on which there are few doubters shows heavy opinion on one side, forming a “J-curve.” • Unimodal or Bell-Shaped • On many issues, public opinion shows few people at the extremes and most in the moderate center. • Bimodal • Forming a “U-curve,” the extremes are bigger than the center.

12. Common Methods of Collecting Data • Telephone • Mail • Web • In-Person

13. Additional Methods of Collecting Data • CATI, CAPI, CASI: What's the Difference? ACASI (Audio Computer-Aided Self-Administered Interviewing) Self-Administered surveying where the respondent uses a computer-based questionnaire, but the computer reads questions to the respondent over headphones. • Audio SAQ Self-Administered surveying where the respondent uses a paper questionnaire. • CAPI (Computer-Aided Personal Interviewing) Interviewer-administered surveying using a computer-based questionnaire. • CASI (Computer-Aided Self-Administered Interviewing) Self-Administered surveying using a computer based questionnaire. • CATI (Computer-Aided Telephone Interviewing) Interviewer-administered telephone surveying using a computer-based questionnaire. • DBM (Disk-by-Mail) Self-administered surveying using a computer-based mail questionnaire. • PAPI (Paper-and-Pencil Interviewing) Interviewer-administered surveying using a traditional paper questionnaire. • SAQ (Self-Administered Questionnaire) Self-Administered surveying using a traditional paper questionnaire. TATI (Touch-Tone-Aided Telephone Interviewing) Interviewer- (or voice-response) administered telephone surveying where respondents use touch-tone buttons to provide answers. • TDE (Touch-Tone Data Entry) Same as TATI. • Source: Sawtooth News, Fall 1996.

14. Polling Techniques • Selecting a sample • Choosing the method • Reaching the sample • Asking the questions

15. Sample • Those persons to be interviewed in a survey • A small fraction of a population • Should be as representative -- rather than as large -- as possible

16. Types of Samples • Random • RDD • Opportunity or Convenience • Purposive • Snow Ball

17. Presidential Ratings • Honeymoon • High support for presidents early in their terms • Rally events • Occurrences that temporarily boost the president’s support The economy and foreign policies may also affect a president’s support.

18. Weissberg’s Linkages Between Public Opinion and Popular Sovereignty • Direct • The majority who don’t know or care about much beyond their immediate concerns. • Operate within Constraints of Public Opinion • Consider the positions of the actors involved public and politicians and use their positions as constraints. • After the Fact Approval • A minority who are among the better-educated and who follow more abstract political concerns. • Public Approval of Leadership • A few highly influential people who are involved in politics, often professionally.

19. Edmund Burke’s Topology of Representation • Delegate • Follow what the majority want. • Trustee • Do what is best, even if there are political consquences. • Politico • Evaluate what is best for the politician and what is best for the public, recognizing the importance of re-election.

20. Public Opinion Polls Are they fair? • Help make public opinion • May distort an election • Are not neutral in their impact • Are not a substitute for careful analysis of issues Should America be governed by polls?