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John Voelcker

John Voelcker. PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES: Myths, Realities, and the Future Sacramento Clean Cities, September 26, 2013. Me: Industry analyst & journalist. INDUSTRY ANALYST and JOURNALIST. DRIVING FORCES. Global regulation to reduce vehicular GHG emissions

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John Voelcker

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  1. John Voelcker PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES: Myths, Realities, and the FutureSacramento Clean Cities, September 26, 2013

  2. Me: Industry analyst & journalist INDUSTRY ANALYST and JOURNALIST

  3. DRIVING FORCES Global regulation to reduce vehicular GHG emissions Climate change (rest of the world accepts as settled science) Europe, China max levels must decline into 2020s In U.S., we say “gas mileage” Petroleum supply “Peak oil?” China demand Environmental damages Domestic natural gas Higher and better uses Energy security Diversity of fuels to power vehicles 2020-2050 Electricity comes from many pathways

  4. DATA TO SET THE SCENE Global “car parc” now: 1 billion+ Global production: ~ 80 million/yr Growth 2010-2030: CRIBs, MISTs Global car parc in 40 years: ~ 2 - 2.5 billion vehicles ?? To keep GHG emissions at parity with today: ~ 60+ mpg And that’s before any cuts … which science says are necessary to rein in climate changes Car is our last major appliance to be electrified

  5. THE ALT-FUELS BATTLE IS (mostly) OVER “Fuels of the future” for 2010-2025 volume vehicles are: Liquid carbon-based fuels (used more efficiently) Gasoline / Diesel Ethanol (mostly blended, e.g. E15) Others (including bio sources) Electricity !! Natural Gas: Yes … in some circumstances, in certain regions, for some vehicle types (perhaps large trucks) Huge challenges in distribution (only ~ 500 public fuel stations today) Hydrogen and fuel cells: NO…or, at least, not a lot High energy density, but dubious wells-to-wheels carbon balance Huge challenges + costs in production and distribution

  6. ‘ELECTRIFICATION’ … MEANS WHAT? Already, regenerative systems Full hybrids (e.g. Toyota Prius) Mild hybrids (e.g. Honda Insight) ALSO: Start-stop Now, PLUG-IN electric cars Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs): 16 kWh + Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S, Mitsubishi i-MiEV, BMW i3, VW e-Golf, more… Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs): 4-20 kWh Chevrolet Volt (38 miles), Cadillac ELR, future GM vehicles… Ford C-Max Energi & Fusion Energi (21 miles) Honda Accord Plug-In Hybrid (15 miles) Toyota Prius Plug-In Hybrid (11 miles, but only 6 continuous) The unknown: #s of “Pure” electrics v plug-in hybrids Why now? Energy density! Automotive-scale Li-ion cells

  7. WHY PLUG-INS? Distribution system already exists Even in U.S. (only 120 Volts) Public charging: Needed, not much used Quick charging: CHAdeMO vs CCS vs SuperCharging [sigh] “Wells-to-wheels” carbon lower In many U.S. states (CA !!), better than 50-mpg cars (2012 UCS) China, Europe: Less clear, varies (more coal) Utilities (should) love the idea of selling vehicle fuel Especially during off-peak periods to exploit unused capacity No, it won’t take down the grid (see 2007 EPRI-NRDC study) But neighborhood capacity must be monitored BEST PART: Electric cars get cleaner as the grid does!

  8. DISASTER … FAILURE … GLOOM & DOOM !!! If you get certain types of news, you “know” that … Electric cars are “sales failures” Batteries are too costly; “no payback and there never will be” The only reason plug-in cars exist is “Government billions” Tesla and Fisker are “loser” companies Tesla Model S cars can’t make it between SuperChargers Chevy Volts “catch fire and explode” And so on … and so on … • Charging stations • 10K+ Level 2 today • 150,000 by 2018 • But homes still dominate • The TEPCO paradox

  9. ADOPTION RATES: A Picture

  10. IT’S HAPPENING, NOW 2011: 17,500 … 2012: 53,000 2013 sales: 100,000 ?? Today, 14 plug-ins on sale from 9 global carmakers Consumer confusion: Are compliance cars “real” EVs? • Rollouts will be regional; CA is the heavyweight • But, early adopters everywhere: Northwest, Northeast, TX • Who? Gadget geeks + greens + energy security + cheap • And … EV owners use much, much more solar energy

  11. MYTHS !!! Electric cars will bring down the power grid Electric cars burn coal, which is just as bad as gasoline Manufacturing them is worse than gasoline cars Electric cars cost more to buy and just as much to run(never mind the incentives) You can’t drive across the country, so no one wants them

  12. SHORT-TERM HURDLES Public image (“golf cart” image almost gone by now) Evolution of buyer attitudes: Gen Y, “Gen Green” Cars on the road from Nissan, Chevy, Tesla, Ford, Honda … EV driving experience simply better, no gas-station visits a plus Charging infrastructure Early years: Mostly at home No business model for public charging? Public charging will be like WiFi? “ICE-ing” & who gets priority ?? BATTERY COST! Consumer cells: cost-performance improves 6-8% a year Cuts cost in half by 2020 EPA says +$3,000 (real $$) to meet CAFÉ 2012-2025

  13. ADOPTION RATES: The Projections 2010s: Three-year steps, gets interesting in 2020 (4th gen.) Beware: Regulatory reqts. vs. OEM capacity vs. Demand Hybrids / PHEVs (1-10 kWh): 2020: 6% to 20% of global annual production (from every OEM) BEVs / EREVs (10 kWh +): 10x range in 2020 projections PESSIMISTS: Anderman (800K < 1%), J.D. Power (“overhyped”: 1.3M), German OEM execs OPTIMISTS: Carlos Ghosn (10% of Nissan-Renault volume), PRTM (4-5%) CALIFORNIA: ZEV requirements (BEVs, hydrogen fuel-cell cars) The unknown: “Pure” electrics vs plug-in hybrids/EREVs

  14. LESSONS LEARNED SO FAR No longer restricted to unicorns, rainbows & fairy dust  Drivers like electric cars: Quiet, smooth, torquey Dealers don’t: Takes 4x longer to sell a plug-in car Outside this room, electric cars are still just noise level Mass market requires some kind of payback GET BUTTS IN SEATS !!

  15. THE BIG UNKNOWN(s) OIL PRICES !!! (meaning “gas cost”) Geopolitical externalities over which industry has no control Consumer behavior ~ volatility more than absolute level? Fall 2008: $4-plus gasoline  2016 model mix in 3 months But at some point: Price-competitive electric cars sell on the merits How efficient can we make combustion engines? 200 hp per liter: when? Engine + transmission improvements Bodyshell 30% lighter with Cd of 0.22 38-mpg large sedan (e.g. Ford Taurus) Again, cost impact: +$3,000 by 2025

  16. CONTACT INFO John Voelckerjohn@highgearmedia.com+1 917 774-0589@JohnVoelcker Facebook: Green Car Reports Twitter: @GreenCarReports

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