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Bill Bakun USGS -Menlo Park

Bill Bakun USGS -Menlo Park. Towards a United States Earthquake Catalogue. Why didn’t we do this 10 years ago?. Why not start now with California?. Three Parts. Same attributes, different rules. Can be stitched together. Historical, Instrumental,Future Events. Status Quo.

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Bill Bakun USGS -Menlo Park

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  1. Bill Bakun USGS -Menlo Park Towards a United States Earthquake Catalogue Why didn’t we do this 10 years ago? Why not start now with California?

  2. Three Parts • Same attributes, different rules • Can be stitched together Historical, Instrumental,Future Events

  3. Status Quo • Basis for important products USA has no national catalog • Every probability report, every • national ground motion map • redefines the catalog Many countries have national earthquake catalogs • Waste of Time • Inconsistent Products

  4. A European Historical Earthquake Catalog ? earthquake parameters

  5. An Example from Europe: varied alternatives and results Event Root MDP compilation Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw Boxer i NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.74 ±0.50 Martinez S. & M.,2002 Ic2 27/12/1722 Algarve

  6. Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results Event Root MDP compilation Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw Boxer i NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.74 ±0.50 Boxer n NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.40 ± 0.23 Martinez S. & M.,2002 NA4 37.117, -7.738 6.81 ± 0.50 Ic2 B&W Literature 37.171, -7.774 6.41 ±0.50 California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50 MEEP NA4 36.979, -7.675 5.60 27/12/1722 Algarve

  7. Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results Event Root MDP compilation Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw Boxer i NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.74 ±0.50 Boxer n NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.40 ± 0.23 Martinez S. & M.,2002 NA4 37.117, -7.738 6.81 ± 0.50 Ic2 B&W Literature 37.171, -7.774 6.41 ±0.50 California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50 MEEP NA4 36.979, -7.675 5.60 27/12/1722 Algarve Boxer i NA4 37.106, -7.873 6.27 ±0.35 Boxer n NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.97 ±0.01 Baptista et al.,2007 Ic2 B&W NA4 37.108, -7.837 6.38 ±0.50 MEEP NA4 37.074, -7.757 6.00 ±0.20

  8. Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results Event Root MDP compilation Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw Boxer i NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.74 ±0.50 Boxer n NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.40 ± 0.23 Martinez S. & M.,2002 NA4 37.117, -7.738 6.81 ± 0.50 Ic2 B&W Literature 37.171, -7.774 6.41 ±0.50 California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50 MEEP NA4 36.979, -7.675 5.60 27/12/1722 Algarve Boxer i NA4 37.106, -7.873 6.27 ±0.35 Boxer n NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.97 ±0.01 Baptista et al.,2007 Ic2 B&W NA4 37.108, -7.837 6.38 ±0.50 MEEP NA4 37.074, -7.757 6.00 ±0.20 Martinez S. & M., 2002 Mw = f (Io)? Iberian catalog 36.400, -7.767 6.50

  9. Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results Event Root MDP compilation Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw Boxer i NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.74 ±0.50 Boxer n NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.40 ± 0.23 Martinez S. & M.,2002 NA4 37.117, -7.738 6.81 ± 0.50 Ic2 B&W Literature 37.171, -7.774 6.41 ±0.50 California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50 MEEP NA4 36.979, -7.675 5.60 27/12/1722 Algarve Boxer i NA4 37.106, -7.873 6.27 ±0.35 Boxer n NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.97 ±0.01 Baptista et al.,2007 Ic2 B&W NA4 37.108, -7.837 6.38 ±0.50 MEEP NA4 37.074, -7.757 6.00 ±0.20 Martinez S. & M., 2002 Mw = f (Io)? Iberian catalog 36.400, -7.767 6.50 ? Vilanova & Fo., 2007 37.170, -7.580 6.90

  10. Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results Event Root MDP compilation Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw Boxer i NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.74 ±0.50 Phase 1: Compile for each event Boxer n NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.40 ± 0.23 • Use undergrads, interns Martinez S. & M.,2002 NA4 37.117, -7.738 6.81 ± 0.50 Ic2 B&W Literature 37.171, -7.774 6.41 ±0.50 • Review, revise California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50 MEEP NA4 36.979, -7.675 5.60 27/12/1722 Algarve Boxer i NA4 37.106, -7.873 6.27 ±0.35 Boxer n NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.97 ±0.01 Baptista et al.,2007 Ic2 B&W NA4 37.108, -7.837 6.38 ±0.50 MEEP NA4 37.074, -7.757 6.00 ±0.20 Martinez S. & M., 2002 Mw = f (Io)? Iberian catalog 36.400, -7.767 6.50 ? Vilanova & Fo., 2007 37.170, -7.580 6.90 Tectonic Baptista et al., 2007 37.017, -7.817 6.50

  11. Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results Event Root MDP compilation Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw Boxer i NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.74 ±0.50 Phase 1: Compile for each event Boxer n NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.40 ± 0.23 • Use undergrads, interns Martinez S. & M.,2002 NA4 37.117, -7.738 6.81 ± 0.50 Ic2 B&W Literature 37.171, -7.774 6.41 ±0.50 • Review, revise California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50 MEEP NA4 36.979, -7.675 5.60 27/12/1722 Algarve Boxer i NA4 37.106, -7.873 6.27 ±0.35 Boxer n NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.97 ±0.01 Baptista et al.,2007 Phase 2:Expert Panel selects Preferred Path and WHY! Ic2 B&W NA4 37.108, -7.837 6.38 ±0.50 MEEP NA4 37.074, -7.757 6.00 ±0.20 Martinez S. & M., 2002 Mw = f (Io)? Iberian catalog 36.400, -7.767 6.50 ? Vilanova & Fo., 2007 37.170, -7.580 6.90 Tectonic Baptista et al., 2007 37.017, -7.817 6.50

  12. Stakeholders • Experts: All Views Represented Users: Mark Peterson, Ned Field • $$$: NRC, COE, PG&E • Enforcers: Management

  13. Catalog Attributes: • A Unified Archive (Distributed?) • Accessible-to-All On Line • Include Parameters (and uncertainties) for All Significant Historical and Instrumental earthquakes • Include Data Roots, alternative solutions • Supported by all stakeholders (NEHRP,USGS, SCEC, etc.) • Basis for all US earthquake hazard products

  14. Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results Event Root MDP compilation Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw Boxer i NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.74 ±0.50 Phase 1: Compile for each event Boxer n NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.40 ± 0.23 • Use undergrads, interns Martinez S. & M.,2002 NA4 37.117, -7.738 6.81 ± 0.50 Ic2 B&W Literature 37.171, -7.774 6.41 ±0.50 • Review, revise California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50 MEEP NA4 36.979, -7.675 5.60 27/12/1722 Algarve Boxer i NA4 37.106, -7.873 6.27 ±0.35 Boxer n NA4 37.106, -7.873 5.97 ±0.01 Baptista et al.,2007 Phase 2:Expert Panel selects Preferred Path and WHY! Ic2 B&W NA4 37.108, -7.837 6.38 ±0.50 MEEP NA4 37.074, -7.757 6.00 ±0.20 Martinez S. & M., 2002 Mw = f (Io)? Iberian catalog 36.400, -7.767 6.50 ? Vilanova & Fo., 2007 37.170, -7.580 6.90 Tectonic Baptista et al., 2007 37.017, -7.817 6.50

  15. The Easy Part: Instrumental List Pointers to related Intensity Data • The Hard Part: Pre-Instrumental List • Historical earthquakes • -Paleoseismic events

  16. Instrumental Side: More to Do • Explain Puzzling Magnitudes • 1949 Puget Sound • 1989 Loma Prieta

  17. Build on the European experience Historical Earthquakes

  18. Controversial Historical Earthquakes Different compilations of data Different Analyses Different Locations or Magnitudes The Really Hard Part

  19. US Complexity Counterparts? Historical? • 1811-1812 New Madrid • Where? • Magnitude? Instrumental? • 1906 San Francisco • 3 Published Epicenters? • 3 Published Magnitudes?

  20. Historical Earthquakes: • Build List of Historical Earthquakes (100? M > 5 1/2 events) • Construct Roots • Empanel experts to select preferred solutions • Management to Maintain and Support the catalog • Do ii now! • GEM will build and maintain the archive and internet interface

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