Impact Based Warning Experiment

1. Impact Based Warning Experiment ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHERN ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 845 PM CDT * AT 806 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. CHARLES...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT TREES TO BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CREVE COEUR...BRIDGETON...OLIVETTE...ST. ANN...OVERLAND...LAMBERT FIELD...WOODSON TERRACE...UNIVERSITY CITY...ST. JOHN...HAZELWOOD... BEL-RIDGE...BERKELEY...KINLOCH...NORMANDY...COOL VALLEY... HILLSDALE...FLORISSANT...NORTHWOODS...FERGUSON AND DELLWOOD. THIS WARNING INCLUDES CONFLUENCE STATE PARK...FIRST MISSOURI STATE CAPITOL HISTORIC SITE AND HORSESHOE LAKE STATE PARK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3900 8998 3872 8990 3863 9053 3884 9056 TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 253DEG 41KT 3876 9050 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL...<.75IN Year #3 Severe Weather Season 2014 Scott Truett – WFO St. Louis

2. What’s New In 2014? Experiment has been expanded… • Tulsa • Norman/OKC • Lubbock • San Angelo • Great Falls • Glasgow • Jackson • Blacksburg

3. What’s New In 2014? Some minor wording changes …impacts of “considerable” and “catastrophic” are now the same You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris will be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes…businesses and vehicles is likely and complete destruction possible.

4. What’s New In 2014? Biggest operational change: Pathcasts will be utilized whenever possible, i.e.: • * The storm will be near: • Centralia at 645 pm • Mexico at 715 pm • (Other small towns listed beneath the pathcast • without arrival times)

5. What’s New In 2014? Important Caveat Regarding Pathcasts: Pathcast is an APPROXIMATION regarding the location of the storm at a given time.

6. What’s New In 2014? Pathcast Considerations: Software logic uses a fairly “broad brush” to assemble city list • List of towns will not be “complete” (max # 15) • Arrival times (rounded to nearest 5 minutes) may change between products • List of towns may change between products • Cannot take into account non-linear motions

7. A Quick Review… The impact based warning demonstration is a change to the traditional tornado warning system by: 1 - the introduction of a “threat tier” through the use of tags and, 2 - creating more concise and effective wording that communicates risk and impacts commensurate with that threat. It is NOT about forecasting EF-scale!!!

8. BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED • TORNADO WARNING • NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO • 808 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 • THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A • * TORNADO WARNING FOR... • WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... • NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... • NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... • NORTHERN ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... • * UNTIL 845 PM CDT • * AT 806 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO • WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. CHARLES...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. • THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. • HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. • SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. • IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL • BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES • AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. • FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT • TREES TO BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. • * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... • CREVE COEUR...BRIDGETON...OLIVETTE...ST. ANN...OVERLAND...LAMBERT • FIELD...WOODSON TERRACE...UNIVERSITY CITY...ST. JOHN...HAZELWOOD... • BEL-RIDGE...BERKELEY...KINLOCH...NORMANDY...COOL VALLEY... • HILLSDALE...FLORISSANT...NORTHWOODS...FERGUSON AND DELLWOOD. • THIS WARNING INCLUDES CONFLUENCE STATE PARK...FIRST MISSOURI STATE • CAPITOL HISTORIC SITE AND HORSESHOE LAKE STATE PARK. • PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... • TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY • TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE • TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID • WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE • CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. • && • LAT...LON 3900 8998 3872 8990 3863 9053 3884 9056 • TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 253DEG 41KT 3876 9050 • TORNADO...OBSERVED • TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE • HAIL...<.75IN • $$ • GLASS BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 240 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN SEARCY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS... EASTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 315 AM CDT * AT 237 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF JASPER. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE... SAINT JOE... POINT PETER... PIERCETOWN... EULA... CARVER... YARDELLE... WOOLUM RECREATION AREA... WAYTON... VENDOR... SNOWBALL... PINDALL... PARTHENON... MT JUDEA... HASTY... DEER... CROSSROAD... COWELL... BASS... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3611 9294 3604 9281 3592 9274 3576 9324 3592 9333 TIME...MOT...LOC 0740Z 244DEG 35KT 3588 9318 $$ 51

9. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 808 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHERN ST. LOUIS CITY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 845 PM CDT * AT 806 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. CHARLES...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT TREES TO BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CREVE COEUR...BRIDGETON...OLIVETTE...ST. ANN...OVERLAND...LAMBERT FIELD...WOODSON TERRACE...UNIVERSITY CITY...ST. JOHN...HAZELWOOD... BEL-RIDGE...BERKELEY...KINLOCH...NORMANDY...COOL VALLEY... HILLSDALE...FLORISSANT...NORTHWOODS...FERGUSON AND DELLWOOD. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 3900 8998 3872 8990 3863 9053 3884 9056 TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 253DEG 41KT 3876 9050 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL...<.75IN $$ GLASS Possible Tornado Tags Wording of IMPACT section tied to damage threat tag

10. Additional “Enhanced” wording for considerable and severe tagsin body of warning Considerable: “This is a particularly dangerous situation” Catastrophic: “Tornado Emergency For …………………” “This is a particularly dangerous situation”

11. Remember…this format/tags are used in follow-up severe weather statements (SVS)SVS can be used to change the tornado tags (radar vs. observed) and damage threat tags (none, “considerable”, catastrophic”) at any time

12. “Enhanced” Severe Thunderstorm Warnings(storms with winds ≥ 80 mph and/orhail ≥ 2.75” (baseball)) • EAS Activation Requested • “This is a particularly dangerous storm” / enhanced • impact wording • Enhanced Thunderstorm Warnings are scheduled to • be transmitted via WEA in the future (Date TDB)

13. On final point…. The impact based warning demonstration should NOT be used to minimize the danger from an “base” tornado warning, but rather to highlight and place emphasize on the storms that pose the greatest danger. Many/most times, a “base” tornado warning will precede an “enhanced” tornado warning.

14. IBW Training Material http://www.weather.gov/impacts

15. Open Discussion Time