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Modes of supply: recent analysis and a way forward

Modes of supply: recent analysis and a way forward. STD/TBS/WPTGS(2011)28 (Eurostat - Hionia Vlachou; WTO - Joscelyn Magdeleine; OECD/STD - Bettina Wistrom) Paris, 9 November 2011. Content . Introduction Setting the scene: general terms and definitions Data compilation situation

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Modes of supply: recent analysis and a way forward

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  1. Modes of supply: recent analysis and a way forward STD/TBS/WPTGS(2011)28 (Eurostat - Hionia Vlachou; WTO - Joscelyn Magdeleine; OECD/STD - Bettina Wistrom) Paris, 9 November 2011

  2. Content • Introduction • Setting the scene: general terms and definitions • Data compilation situation • A way forward- approaches for compiling the international supply of services by modes 5. Conclusions, next steps and questions

  3. Introduction • Background and information needs… What are the GATS mode of supply? And mode 4? • Increase of international trade in services and the development of international sourcing  increase in the last 15 years • Analytical framework in Chapter V of MSITS2010 • Already some guidance in MSITS2002 but lack of statistical data by mode of supply

  4. General terms and definitions • The GATS does not consider the one year guideline to identify trade in services or not • However statistical frameworks, in particular the BOP and FATS, respond well to the GATS information needs • Mode 4 (in economic statistics/MSITS2010) can be definied as: receipt “received by“ (or “payment for“ from the perspective of the client) a service producer for the rendering of services, where the service producer goes abroad if he is selfemployed or send his employees abroad to render the service to the client. In MSITS2010 named: Contractual service suppliers 4

  5. Data compilation situation (1/2) • India (Reserve Bank of India) • Computer& Information Services • For the past 6 years • Detailed survey with questions covering mode 1, 2 and 4 and services delivered by affiliates • Estimated value through mode 1, 2 and 4 • Hong Kong- China • Annual survey includes questions on the share of mode 4, developed on experimental basis • Legal, accounting, computer, audovisual, real estate services etc  identified by MSITS2010 • For imports/exports for 18 items (+3 “other”) • Value of receipts/payments that are charged for sending/receiving responsible person outside/in Hong Kong-China • Breakdown into 5 main partner countries/territories

  6. Data compilation situation (2/2) • 3. New Zealand • Census of international trade in services and royalties • NZ Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) • Questions on BoP Services (mode 1, 2 and 4) • Contribution of modes (%terms) for 7 aggregate groupings of services (I&C, Business Services) and for 5 partners • 4. Malaysia • Department of Statistics Malaysia (DoSM) • BPM6 and MSITS2010 • Detailed questions on mode 4 • 5. Australia • Australian International Legal Services Advisory Council (ILSAC) in collaboration with FMRC Pty Ltd, assistance Large Law Firm Group, Australian Bureau of Statistics • Survey on international supply of legal services to non-residents • By 4 modes of supply, by line of business and partners

  7. A way forward – Case Study 1 "Was this service transaction (or part of it) fulfilled through the presence of one of your employees? “ YES NO If YES part of it: …% • Using existing BoP Services surveys (or business surveys) • New statistics without additional data collection • Amend existing surveys for one or two relevant service sectors, when surveys are being reviewed or new ones are created • Screening surveys should identify the sector and actors

  8. A way forward – Case Study 2 • Developing a (sector) specific survey • In cooperation with relevant public body • Survey should cover all modes of supply • Identification of services which are relevant for measuring mode 4, but also for other modes • Analysis on types of service contracts • E.g. Ministry of Education/or Health e.g. education services (mode 1=via Internet; mode4 = supplied directly in the host economies, mode 3= language schools, mode 2=attending a training seminar abroad) • Ministry of Agriculture e.g. provision of agricultural machinery with crew, breeding services • Large employments agencies that could have possibly important cross-border activities

  9. A way forward – Case Study 3 (1/2) • Developing model based estimates, in particular estimating data from other frameworks (migration/tourism) – estimating the value of mode 4 • Information used to build an estimation on mode 4 • Theoretical assumptions • Information on flows (stocks) on mode 4 by adding supplementary detail to existing questionnaires (Frontier survey in tourism/travel; household surveys etc) Extract of the United Kingdom air arrival questionnaire 11. How long do you intend to stay in the UK? Under 12 months .................. Up to 2 years ........................ Up to 4 years ........................ Permanently > 4 years .......... Not sure how many years ..... DK, possibly 12 months ........

  10. A way forward – Case Study 3 (2/2) Business/work • 30. What was the main reason for your visit abroad?  • Was it... • Holiday/pleasure ............... • Visiting family ................... • Visiting friends .................. • Getting married ................. • Business/work .................. • 31. Are you... • military or embassy personnel .... • merchant navy ............................ • or airline crew? ........................... • None of these ............................ • 32. Are you... • directly employed from UK .......... • an international commuter ........ * • or directly employed elsewhere? . • Occupations relevant to the • compiling economy • more information on • business/work purpose e.g. attending a conference, • contracted self-employed

  11. Case Study 4 • Developing more detailed estimates of mode 2 supply of services, breaking down travel by type of product consumed and linking to tourism statistics • More details in terms of what is consumed by residents abroad or by non-residents in the compiling economy • Alternative breakdown of travel into: goods, local transport services, accommodation, food-serving services and other services • Tourism/travel surveys included questions on the amount spent by type of product consumed abroad • Common data sources with tourism statistics, but taking into account different concepts and definitions • Going further (education, health, cultural services)

  12. Case Study 5 • Performing a conceptual allocation of trade in services by mode, using table 5.2 of MSITS2010 • As a first stage • Compiler has to decide how the specific service item is most probably supplied by exporters(or to importers) • Evaluation if the allocation is relevant for compiling economy • Validation of the allocation by additional information (qualitative interviews with relevant players in specific sectors) 12

  13. Eurostat, OECD and WTO Secretariats are offering further coordination to implement case studies 1-5 13

  14. Questions • Which approach (as mentioned above) could be appropriate for your country • How feasible are the above mentioned approaches? • Are there volunteers for a pilot study/case study (response by the end of 2011)?

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