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CHINA DECLARES ONE CHILD POLICY

THE DAILY NEWS. www.dailynews.com. 11 November 1979. CHINA DECLARES ONE CHILD POLICY. Background. MAO – “the more people we have, the stronger we are” 1950-1970 – high population growth, Malthusian trap 1979 – One-Child Policy implemented

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CHINA DECLARES ONE CHILD POLICY

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  1. THE DAILY NEWS www.dailynews.com 11 November 1979 CHINA DECLARES ONE CHILD POLICY

  2. Background • MAO – “the more people we have, the stronger we are” • 1950-1970 – high population growth, Malthusian trap • 1979 – One-Child Policy implemented • Number of prevented births ranges from 200 to 400 million

  3. Chinese Population Growth

  4. Exemptions • Hans who live in Rural areas can have second child if first born is girl or disabled (1.5 child policy) • Ethnic minorities are exempt • Originally, If both parents were only children, they can have two children • In 2013, if only one parent was an only child, the couple can have two children • Almost 35.9% of China’s population is currently subject to the one-child restriction

  5. BENEFITS

  6. Benefits Decline in fertility rate led to: • Economic growth: Without the policy, china wouldn’t have grown at 8% annually • Lower poverty: Lifted 150 million people out of poverty • Resources: Released 24% more resources for the family and national investment • Education : Generated more education opportunities per child

  7. Benefits • Demographic dividend: • working-age proportion of the population grows more rapidly than the general population • this lowered the dependence ratio1and caused economic growth 1 ratio of elders and children that depend on the worker

  8. Demographic Dividend 1982 2000 • children dependence ratio fell from 54% to 22% (after 1982)

  9. ISSUES

  10. Gender Imbalance • In 2000, the ratio was 120 boys/100 girls in China, which is way beyond the biologically stable ratio of 105. • Reports state there will be 30 million more men than women in 2020, making it hard for men to find wives • Rural teenage girls migrate to work as factory workers and domestic helpers in the urban areas, making the problem more acute

  11. Gender Imbalance • Son preference also violates girl’s human rights: • Abortion: Sex selective abortion is illegal, but Chinese couples do it anyway • Infanticide: parents may commit infanticide of the daughter to get a chance of having a son instead • Abandonment: There are an estimated one million orphans in China, nearly all of them being girls

  12. Ageing Population • 4-2-1 Problem

  13. Ageing Population • In the future, there will be a small working force supporting a large elderly population • by 2040, more than ¼ of china’s population will be over 60. This figure is larger than the population of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom combined. • this demonstrates how the demographic dividend reverses over time, as the demographic structure follows a “rat swallowed by a snake” pattern

  14. Ageing Population

  15. Ageing Population

  16. Labor Supply Shortage • As the population ages, the labor force becomes smaller causing shortages • Lewis Turning Point: point at which a country moves from a surplus of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. • The LTP appeared in China in 2004 • The fall in fertility rates due to OCP has decreased the supply of new workers and increased labor costs in China

  17. Enforcement • Birth Tourism: children born abroad are not covered by the one-child policy • Hong Kong Passport offers more advantages / imposing restrictions on these births by lowering quotas and raising fines • US In 2010, about 5,000 Chinese children were born in US for this purpose, and the number has been increasing • Forced Abortion: If this practice is illegal, why does it happen?

  18. Forced Abortion

  19. Solution FTwo-ChildPolicy • WHY? • increase the extent of voluntary compliance • more kids improve the demographic structure  increase future labor supply • 2 children people will prefer boy and girl improve gender imbalance problem

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