Poverty Analysis

1. Poverty Analysis Buapun Promphakping buapun@kku.ac.th

2. Different sorts of poverty • Extreme poverty: an inability to meet basic needs • Lack of opportunity: chances and choices to participate in social, economic, political and civil live are seriously limited. • Vulnerability: individual, family and community are vulnerable to circumstances, change in politics, economics, wars, natural calamity, etc.

3. Poverty Analysis? • Approaches and methodologies to understand the poor. • Ways to understand causes of poverty. • Ways to reduce poverty.

4. Questions? • What cause poverty? What are their consequences? • What are interactions of various sets of causes, especially social process and power that perpetuate poverty? • What are ways and means to escape from poverty trap? • What are specific types of the poor, what cause them to be poor, how they deal with their poverty? • How to prioritize measurements and interventions to eradicate poverty?

5. Approach • Country Profile • PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Process • Poverty and Social Impact Analysis • Participatory Poverty Assessment

6. Poverty Country Profile

7. Country Profile • An analytical synthesis of poverty related information to answer the questions: • Who are the poor? • Where do they live? • What are the main characteristics? • Why they are poor?

8. How to conduct country profile • Step 1: defining poverty • Household income/consumption, i.e. poverty line and their associate indices. • Human capabilities: adult literacy, child malnutrition, primary enrollment rate, etc. • Access to public services • Employment and assets • Natural resources

9. How to conduct country profile • Step 2: Analyze available information to answer four questions: • Who are the poor? • Where do they live? • What are the characteristics of their poverty? • Why they are poor?

10. Existing data sources • National census (household survey) • Basic Needs Survey • Village Profile Survey • Report of Ministries/ Department

11. Health Index • Life expectancy • Rate of child malnutrition • Rate of HIVs • Rate of population consuming • alcohol and tobacco

12. How to conduct country profile (cont.) • Step 3: Determining poverty tends • Long term scenario • Short term scenario • Step 4: Consider national policy framework • National development strategy • Poverty reduction strategy • Government policies • Public expenditure program.

13. Poverty Reduction Strategy Process PRSP

14. What is Poverty Reduction Process (PRSP) • Main tool used for policy & national budget priorities and economic planning • Basis for donor coordination – aid resources aligned to PRSP priorities.

15. What is Poverty Reduction Process (PRSP) • Designed to be consultative process involving all country’s major sectors and stakeholders • Guides Central Government budgetary allocations to sectors such as energy, health, education and agriculture

16. Impact of PRSP • Consensus on priority activities and institutional approach • Education– Primary education • Health – Primary health care, HIV

17. Health, education and water analysts able to demonstrate: • Investment in health, education and water = poverty reduction

18. Poverty and Social Impact Analysis PSIA

19. Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) • PSIA is the analysis of intended and unintended consequences of actual or potential policy interventions on the well-being of different social groups, with a particular focus on the poor and vulnerable • PSIA focuses on • The distributional impacts on different stakeholders, • income and non–income dimensions • The positive and negative impacts of the policy agenda

20. Goals • Understand better the likely impacts of reforms on different groups (disaggregated along ethic, gender, age, spatial and livelihood lines) • Improving quality: Promoting pro-poor policy agendas • Facilitating the process: Building a broad constituency for change

21. PSIA: Main Elements • 4 Main Analytical Elements of a PSIA: Activities: • - Stakeholder Analysis - Policy dialogue process • Institutional Analysis - Monitoring during • Impact Analysis implementation • Risk Analysis • Social Analysis  brings different research focus,  generates different information,  generated via different set of tools and methods

22. What is the value added of social analysis in PSIA? • Explains how social identity and social relations may affect policy outcomes and impacts • Analysis of informal rules and behaviors helps to understand implementation issues and constraints • Focus on Analysis of interests and influence of different stakeholders helps to understand effects of political economy • Helps to identify socio-political and institutional risks • Emphasis on PSIA process and dialogue helps to identify bottlenecks and preconditions for ownership of reforms

23. Policy tools • Prices • Employment • Access to goods and services • Assets • Transfers and taxes • Governance

24. 1. Country Social Analysis (CSA) • CSA is an upstream, political economy analysis that seeks to inform policy dialogue and to improve the effectiveness and sustainability of development interventions • provide recommendations for the removal of barriers to equal opportunities for participating in development, accessing public institutions and holding them accountable,

25. The CSA framework analyzes the interaction between two dimensions: • Social diversity, assets, and livelihoods • What is the existing distribution of and access to assets and services across different social groups? What is the impact of that distribution in the livelihoods and coping strategies of the poor? • Power, institutions, and governance • What are the institutions that mediate access of the poor to assets and services? How do these institutions impact policy making and resource reallocation ?

26. 1.2. Stakeholder analysis 1.2.1. Macro-level stakeholder analysis • Questions: Who are the stakeholders? What is their position with respect to policy change? What motivates them? • Tools: Policy interest matrix Political mapping 1.2.1. Macro-level institutional analysis • Questions: What are the institutional rules and relationships that influence policy reform? • Tools: Network analysis Transaction cost analysis

27. 2. Understanding the policy implementation process • Analysis of the process of implementation allows us to explore how, why and under what conditions a policy intervention might work, or fail • Objective: a greater understanding of the contextual factors, mechanisms and processes underlying a policy’s success or failure.

28. Stakeholders:focuses on interests and the relative importance and influence of different interests groups and actors and the role each might play in the implementation process

29. Institutions: as a sets of rules that govern individual and collective behavior. Assesses whether institutions mediate and distort the anticipated poverty and social impact of policy reform • Institutions may be formal ( legal systems, property rights, enforcement mechanisms); or informal, (cultural practices and social norms)

30. Institutions operate and influence behavior in different domains of daily life: • the state domain (governing justice, political processes and service delivery), • the market domain (governing credit, labor and goods) and • the societal domain (governing community and family behavior).

31. 2. Understanding the policy implementation process • 2.1. Meso-level Stakeholder Analysis • Objective: To test assumptions about the interests of social actors. • Tools: Stakeholder analysis matrices • Micro-political mapping • Force field analysis

32. 2.2. Meso-level Institutional analysis • Objective: To test assumptions about the social rules governing the implementation of policy • Tools: Organizational (static and process) mapping

33. 3. Understanding the impacts of policy agenda • Objective: examining the likely or actual impact of policy reform  at the meso and micro levels • Social models are applied • evaluating winners and losers • understanding how different social groups act in the face of the events and how institutions impact on their lives, • Tools: Analytical frameworks that provide a “theory of change” and employ concepts of opportunity structure, shocks, assets, entitlements, capabilities

34. Methods and data • Objective: Employing a common set of questions on impacts, linked to the transmission channels • Tools: A range of methods that generate both qualitative and quantitative data

35. 4. Policy Analysis: Assessing uncertainties and risks to policy reform • Objective: Assessing how confident we are that the predicted impacts will occur? • Risk assessment: utilizing PSIA data and analysis to identify and map the risks to policy reform. • Institutional risks, political economy, exogenous, and country risks

36. Scenario analysis help us choose the policy option that is most likely to result in our desired outcome • (4 steps: Identify the counterfactual, Identify scenarios for policy reform, Analyze the impact of each scenario against the counterfactual, Compare and choose the preferred scenario)

38. Participatory poverty assessment/wealth ranking • Develop farmers own criteria on poverty and well-being indicators • Solicit farmers assessment of relative poverty levels of different households and determining factors • Identify farmers priorities for improving their well-being

39. Community resource mapping