IS 6833 ANALYTICS ASSIGNMENT Predicting Homicide Rate in St. Louis City for 2013

1. IS 6833ANALYTICS ASSIGNMENTPredicting Homicide Rate in St. Louis City for 2013 UzairBhatti Dan Diecker PujiBandi Latoya Lewis

2. Definition • Homicide is killing of one human being by another. Homicide is a general term; it includes murder, manslaughter, and other criminal homicides as well as noncriminal killings. Murder is the crime of intentionally and unjustifiably killing another. In the U.S., first-degree murder is a homicide committed with premeditation or in the course of a serious felony. • The first type encompasses any homicide resulting from an intentional act done without malice or premeditation and while in the heat of passion or on sudden provocation. • The second type is variously defined in different jurisdictions but often includes an element of unlawful recklessness or negligence. • Noncriminal homicides include killings committed in defense of oneself or another and deaths resulting from accidents caused by persons engaged in lawful acts.

3. Homicide overview in St. Louis • 2008: 167 Total Murder for the Year • 2009: 143 Total Murder for the Year • 2010: 144 Total Murder for the Year • 2011: 113 Total Murder for the Year • 2012: 113 Total Murder for the Year • St. Louis is ranked fourth dangerous city in the US for Murders

4. Our approach/objective

5. Murder For Past four years

6. Murder distribution by zip code

7. Murders by month

8. Variables considered • Group A as a Team considered many variables to determine potential relationships to homicide. • Due to randomness of Homicides, variables only help determine potential relationships but are no means of causality • Variables • Time • Year, Month, • Education (High School Diploma) • Home / Renter vacancy • Income • Unemployment • Age / Gender • Race • Location: Districts, Zip code, Neighborhoods, and Streets • Poverty • Drugs • Gangs/ Violence

9. Variables used to predict number of Homicides and Location • Variables used to develop the Regression Model • Median Household Income • Determined median household income by Zip code • Educational • Determined by average high school graduation rate by Zip code • Vacancy percentage of Rented/Owned Houses • Determined average home vacancy by Zip code • Unemployment Rate

10. Prediction Approach • Based on available data we have chosen to use regression model to establish a correlation between data gathered on St. Louis city and the number of homicides • Variables used have established potential relationship with number of homicides. (Source 5) • Used regression analysis to show the relationship between significant variables, and build regression model to predict future homicides

11. Constraints facing the model • Inconsistent data availability • Data compatibility issues converting zip codes to districts, districts to neighborhoods • Inadequate data for the required variables • Lack of current data • Each department collects data based on different geographic specifications

12. Regression Output with all variables • The regression output indicates a correlation for number of homicides with fluctuations in High school graduation rates • Correlation of homicides to Mean Income, Unemploymentand number of vacant dwellings is weak

14. Regression output with dropped variables • More accurate estimate of homicide numbers using stronger correlating data:

15. Regression Model equation • Number of homicides to be predicted in year 2013 can be referred by the statistical model illustrating, • Combination of variables can be used to predict number of homicides based on high school graduation rate, Home / Rent vacancy, Unemployment rate, • Because significance F is less than .05 we can still claim the combination of variables can be used to predict 2013 homicides. • The past 5 year prediction for High school degree attainment is 26.5%. Where as the past 3 year prediction is 26.6%. So we predict that the number of homicides are going to be 109.

16. Prediction • Based on current trends in education levels of people living in these areas, this model predicts a decrease in the number of homicides for 2013 • Studies show that the graduation rate for the St. Louis City has gone up significantly (at a current rate of 26.5%) • Based on the past observations of the murder occurrence we predict that Zip code 63107 is going to have highest murder rate followed by 63112 and 63106 respectively

17. Recommendations • Education levelis a well-recorded data source and can be used for estimation of future trends in homicides. • High school graduation rate has an inverse relation with the homicide rate. • Future data-gathering should be limited to data points that are strongly correlated with homicides and easy to gather. Benefits: • Ease of data maintenance • Easier ‘What if?’ functionality if there are fewer data to consider • Ease of use and timeliness of predictions – quicker to respond and deploy resources where needed.

18. references • http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/community_facts.xhtml • http://www.city-data.com/ • http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-St.-Louis-Missouri.html (homicide overview in St. Louis) • www.forbes.com (4th dangerous city in the US for Murders) • http://www.gwu.edu/~soc/docs/Kubrin_neighborhood_correlates.pdf • www.socialexplorer.com • www.factfinder.com www.stlrcga.org