St. Louis Metropolitan Police Homicide predictions

1. St. Louis Metropolitan Police Homicide predictions A-Team Dan Burgdorf Spencer Malaney Richard Manierski Ryan Webster Daniel Anthony

2. What Constitutes a homicide? • Definition: Homicide (Latinhomicidium, homo human being + caedere to cut, kill) refers to the act of a human killing a human being. • Our Definition(s): The unlawful killing of one human being by the work of another individual • Any death being classified as a homicide by the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department is an official homicide in the eyes of Group A (In short, we are not questioning the fine judgment of the STLMPD)

3. Predicting Homicides in the city of St. Louis for 2010 • Study of the decline in homicides during the 1990’s • Factors that Don’t affect Homicide - Daniel • Factors that DID affect Homicide(s) - Ryan • “Bodies Move” - Rick • Urban Development - Spencer • Website and Predictions – Spencer • Conclusion - Dan

4. Decline in Homicides in the 90’s -Stephen D. Levitt

5. Six Factors that played little or no role in the Decline Strong Economy in the 1990’s Changing demographics Better Policing Strategies Gun Control laws Concealed weapons law Increase use of Capital Punishment

6. 1. The Strong Economy of the 1990s • Improvements in labor market opportunities make crime relatively less attractive • Relevant for burglary, robbery and theft, but less important for homicides, assaults and rapes • Unemployment and property crime

7. 2. Changing Demographics • Baby boomers • Older generations are less likely to commit crimes • Younger generations are more prone to commit violent crimes • Eventually both are going to offset each other in a large picture

8. 3. Better Policing Strategies • Community policing strategies • Media attention and use of technology in identifying crime ‘hot spots’ • No known effective tool to measure strategies

9. 4. Gun Control Laws • Little evidence • Gun buy-back programs • Typical programs like this yields very few guns • Very few guns used in crimes were licensed

10. 5. Laws Allowing the Carrying of Concealed Weapons • Luby’s massacre • Studies showing a relationship between concealed weapons and the homicide rate are based on Empirical data that was already on the decline before the enactment of the law.

11. 6. Increased Use of Capital Punishment • Even after introducing death penalties, homicide rate did not decline a lot • The decline rate was 1/25 • So it was not really effective.

12. Four Factors That Explain the Decline

13. 1) Increases in the Number of Police

14. 2) The Rising Prison Population

15. 3) The Receding Crack Epidemic

16. 4) The Legalization of Abortion

17. CONCLUSIONS ABOUT 90’S APPLICABLE TO OUR MODEL • Things we will need to look at further to provide more accurate predictions in 2010: • Change in demographics • Age of inhabitants • Race of inhabitants • Change in Police Deployment • Budget cuts or gets increased • Low recruitment or High recruitment • Change in rate of Incarceration • Prisons become full OR new prisons open up • Judges opt for probation OR opt for tougher sentencing • Change in Drug Market or drug supply • Major busts in supply chain • Afghanistan and Opium trade

18. Urban Development • Foreclosures impact on violent crimes in Charlotte, NC.

19. Urban Development Cont. • Wal-Mart • Violent crimes were 6 times more likely to occur in Wal-Mart parking lots than at a Target parking lots in 2004. • (sample done by WalmartCrimeReport.com) • Not enough data to make conclusions

20. “BODIES MOVE”

21. “BODIES MOVE” CONT. • EXAMPLE: • DISTRICT X • 300 HOMICIDES • 52 DETERMINED • 248 “BODIES FOUND” • FEW FACTORS PREDICTING HOMICIDE • DISTRICT Y • 25 HOMICIDES • 20 DETERMINED • 5 “BODIES FOUND” • MANY FACTORS PREDICTING HOMICIDE

22. Website • http://www.umsl.edu/~wm5k7

23. Conclusion Any Questions??