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Julian Rosenthal-Erickson and Shom Mazumder

A Deadly Interaction: Assessing the Interplay of Oil and Income Inequality on the Duration of Civil War. Julian Rosenthal-Erickson and Shom Mazumder. Inspiration . Economic Roots of Civil Wars and Revolutions in the Contemporary World (Boix 2008)

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Julian Rosenthal-Erickson and Shom Mazumder

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  1. A Deadly Interaction: Assessing the Interplay of Oil and Income Inequality on the Duration of Civil War Julian Rosenthal-Erickson and Shom Mazumder

  2. Inspiration • Economic Roots of Civil Wars and Revolutions in the Contemporary World (Boix 2008) • The interaction effect of significant export revenues from oil and income inequality is a determinant for the onset of civil war. • What if we apply this to duration instead?

  3. Background • Three Broad Theories of Civil Conflict (Collier, Hoeffler, and Soderbom 2004) • Rebellions-as-Investment • Rebellions-as-Business • Rebellions-as-Mistake • The specifics are still up to debate.

  4. Argument • Hypothesis • Interaction of oil and income inequality leads to shorter civil wars. • What is interaction? • Causal Mechanism • Capital and Liquidity

  5. Empirics (N=435)

  6. Case Studies • Nigeria • High gini, large revenues from oil • Short war • Iran • High gini, large revenues from oil • Long war • Why?

  7. Implication • Is oil a resource curse? • Depends on how you look at it. • Future work • Investments in risky areas • Deeper look into interaction of variables

  8. Take Away Points • Interaction of oil and income inequality is significant and robust given our data • Income inequality’s significance is debatable • Oil empowers the privileged class • All about your perspective

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