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PREVIEW in some words ( PREV ention, I nformation and E arly W arning)

PREVIEW in some words ( PREV ention, I nformation and E arly W arning). A project funded by the European Commission 23 millions € of eligible costs, 14 millions € granted New information services to help risk management Gathering users needs Using the most advanced research and technology

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PREVIEW in some words ( PREV ention, I nformation and E arly W arning)

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  1. PREVIEW in some words(PREVention, Information and Early Warning) • A project funded by the European Commission • 23 millions € of eligible costs, 14 millions € granted • New information services to help risk management • Gathering users needs • Using the most advanced research and technology • Validation on operational platforms • 58 partners from 15 nations • Scientists • Operators • Industrial companies • End Users • 45 months performance schedule (start on 1 April 2005) and yearly budget reviews COSMO partners involved: DWD, ARPA-SIM, ARPA Piedmont, Meteoswiss A.Montani; Eurorisk-Preview COSMO meeting, Zurich, 20-23 September 2005

  2. Windstorms Workpackage(DWD, ARPA-SIM) Provision of probabilistic forecasts and warnings of strong wind events at all time ranges up to 10 days ahead. • Ensemble Forecast inputs: • Medium-Range (3-10 days) • ECMWF • ARPA-SIM (COSMO-LEPS) (Days 3-5) • Short-Range (1-2 days) – multi-model ensemble consisting of contributions from: • Meteo-France - PEACE • DWD - SRNWP-PEPS • Met.no - TEPS/LAM EPS • Met Office - LAMEPS/EPS • Post-processing… A.Montani; Eurorisk-Preview COSMO meeting, Zurich, 20-23 September 2005

  3. Clone of COSMO-LEPS suite over NW Europe • Generation of a new limited-area ensemble forecast system for the prediction of wind and wind gusts over North-Western Europe. • Aim: provision of site-specific wind forecasts to be post-processed and combined with other products by UK Met. Office. • Same configuration as the operational COSMO-LEPS (red), but both clustering and integration domain are shifted northwards (blue). Experimental suite will start on June 2006. Computer time provided by an ECMWF special project between ARPA-SIM and UK Met Office. A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system: recent developments and plans 2nd Workshop on Short-Range EPS, Bologna, 7-8 April 2005

  4. Medium-range plain flood Workpackage(DWD, ARPA-SIM) Provision of probabilistic forecasts so as to generate ensemble flood forecasts to be compared with the deterministic approach for ranges between 3 and 10 days. • The upper-Danube river basin has been selected as pilot river basin and the test period will include the large floods of August 2002. Very short-range high-resolution flash-flood Workpackage(ARPA-Piedmont, Meteoswiss) Prepare the use of next-generation NWP models for hydrological applications in flash-flood forecasting over medium basins. Establish the know-how for developing hydrometeorological coupled model systems for flash-flood forecasting. A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system: recent developments and plans 2nd Workshop on Short-Range EPS, Bologna, 7-8 April 2005

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