1 / 33

Interpreting Feedback from Baseline Tests – Predictive Data

Rob Smith: CEM Inset Provider. Interpreting Feedback from Baseline Tests – Predictive Data. Course: CEM Information Systems for Beginners and New Users Day 1 Session 3 Wednesday 27 th February 2013. therobsmith@hotmail.com. What are “Predictions”, and how are they generated?.

pia
Download Presentation

Interpreting Feedback from Baseline Tests – Predictive Data

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Rob Smith: CEM Inset Provider Interpreting Feedback from Baseline Tests – Predictive Data Course: CEM Information Systems for Beginners and New Users Day 1 Session 3 Wednesday 27th February 2013 therobsmith@hotmail.com

  2. What are “Predictions”, and how are they generated? The grades generated by the CEM systems are not predictions, but average performance by similar students in the most recent examination

  3. 50% on or above the trend line A* Subject National trend line (regression line) * ** *** ******************* A * ** *** ******************************** B * ** *** ********************************* *** ** * ‘PREDICTION’ (expected grade) C * ** *** ************************************ *** ** * POINTS GRADE * ** *** ******************************** **** ** * * ** ***************************** *** ** * * ** *** ******************* ** * * 50% on or below the trend line * ** *********** ** * X BASELINE SCORE

  4. 3 key points are: • The higher the baseline score the higher the final grade • Any one grade is achievable from a range of baseline scores • From any baseline score, a range of grades is possible

  5. Trend line 6.6 points = A/B 4 points = D 98 128

  6. The word ‘PREDICTION’: Quite probably the most contentious term that is used!! Concerns include: • A prediction for GCSE at start of year 7? • What has the baseline test got to do with my subject? • I know my pupils! • The predictions are too low/too high: not valid!!! • And what about my professional judgement?

  7. The word ‘PREDICTION’: • Alternatives include: • Expected grade • Minimum attainment/achievable grade • Baseline suggested grade • It assumes averageprogress and you would hope that your students make above average progress • But you know that all of them don’t!!!!

  8. FACTORS THAT WILL INFLUENCE RELIABILITY OF ‘PREDICTIONS’: • Knowledge of student • Parental support/home life • Peer influences/social life • Student attitude, interest, language • Expectations of staff • Department/institution ethos • Resources • Quality of teaching and learning: pace of lessons • Understanding how children learn……… • And the reliability of the predictions......

  9. Correlation = 1 Result

  10. Correlation = 0 Correlation = 0.7

  11. Point and grade ‘predictions’ to GCSE • Compare the predictions for English and Mathematics. • What pattern do you notice? • Look at Art and Design, Biology and French. Comments?

  12. The graph below shows the middle 2/3 of some subject trend lines

  13. Physics Maths Psychology Sociology Latin Photography English Lit Some Subjects are More Equal than Others…. A B >1 grade Grade C D E C B A A* Average GCSE

  14. to place school at 75th percentile of all schools

  15. Or insert own values and click adjust

  16. ‘Predictions’ should be used in conjunction with Chances Graphs Prediction/expected grade: 5.1 grade C Most likely grade Blue bars represent the probability of the student achieving each grade

  17. Prediction/expected grade: 6.4 grade A/B Most likely grade

  18. Chances Graphs can serve as • awarning for top scoring students and • a motivator for low scoring students

  19. Not a label for life...just another piece of information • The Chances graphs show that, from almost any baseline score, students come up with almost any grade - - -there are just different probabilities for each grade depending on the baseline score. • In working with students these graphs are more useful than a single predicted or target grade • Chances graphs show what can be achieved: • By students of similar ability • By students with lower baseline scores

  20. Student 1

  21. Student 2

  22. Why is the ‘predicted’ grade not always equal to the highest bar ? Predicted (‘expected’) grade Most likely grade AT WHICH POINT WILL THE SEE-SAW BE BALANCED? Predicted (‘expected’) grade i.e. the lower grades ‘pull’ the prediction to the left

  23. Student 3

  24. Student 4

  25. Student 4 - IPR

  26. Key points to consider might include: • Where has the data come from? • What (reliable and relevant) data should we use? • Enabling colleagues to trust the data: Training (staff) • Communication with parents and students • Challenging, NOT Demoralising, students……. • Storage and retrieval of data • Consistency of understanding what the data means and does not mean

More Related