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U.N. FCCC, Bracknell, 25-27 Sep 2002 Experts Meeting on Assessment of

U.N. FCCC, Bracknell, 25-27 Sep 2002 Experts Meeting on Assessment of Contributions to Climate Change Michael Prather University of California at Irvine Completeness & Assessment: What forcings are / should be included? Validation:

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U.N. FCCC, Bracknell, 25-27 Sep 2002 Experts Meeting on Assessment of

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  1. U.N. FCCC, Bracknell, 25-27 Sep 2002 Experts Meeting on Assessment of Contributions to Climate Change Michael Prather University of California at Irvine Completeness & Assessment: What forcings are / should be included? Validation: What are the minimum capabilities in simulating the current climate system? E S S

  2. What Greenhouse Agents are listed under Kyoto ? Annex A Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) What are not ? CFCs & HCFCs (Montreal - OK) Sulfate Aerosols Black & Organic Carbon Aerosols Tropospheric Ozone (O3) Carbon monoxide (CO) Nitrogen Oxides (NOX)

  3. What about indirect greenhouse gases under Kyoto ?

  4. What Greenhouse Agents are forcing climate ?

  5. Which Greenhouse Agents have a good historical record ? CO2 CH4 N2O CFCs  solar  strat O3  trop O3 •  sulfate •  fossil fuel OC/BC •  biomass OC/BC •  mineral dust •  aerosol indirect • land use /albedo Which Greenhouse Agents are attributable ?

  6. Anthropogenic control of the old GHGases CH4emissions (600 Tg-CH4/yr) fossil fuels 17% biomass burning 5% landfills 7% ruminants 14% rice 9% pollution (lifetime) ??% N2O emissions (16 Tg-N/yr) industrial processes 7% biomass burning 3% agriculture 24% cattle/feedlots 12% CFC & HCFC emissions (<< 1 Tg/yr) refrigeration, foam, propellant, cleaning phased out under Montreal Protocol

  7. Anthropogenic control of the new GHGases PFCs = CF4 + ... (13 Gg/yr ++) anthropogenic*** 100% aluminum, industrial SF6 emissions (6 Gg/yr ++) anthropogenic 100% insulation, electrical switches HFC emissions (100 Gg/yr ++) anthropogenic 100% CFC partial replacements

  8. Anthropogenic control of Aerosols sulfate = SO2 emissions(110 Tg-S/yr) fossil fuels 67% biomass burning 2% Black Carbon emissions (12 Tg/yr) fossil fuels 55% biomass burning 45% Carbonaceous emissions (140 Tg/yr) fossil fuels 20% biomass burning 39%

  9. Anthropogenic control of the pollution gases CO emissions (2800 Tg-CO/yr) fossil & domestic fuel 32% biomass burning 25% NOX emissions (52 Tg-N/yr) fossil fuels 65% biomass burning 14% agriculture/soils 12% VOC emissions (600 Tg-C/yr) fossil fuel 28% biomass burning 6%

  10. CO is an indirect greenhouse gas CO OH CH4 O3 CO emissions are effectively equivalent toCH4 emissions: 100 Tg-CO = 5 Tg-CH4 (IPCC, TAR)

  11. Anthropogenic Impact through Reactive Pollutants 1750 - 2000 18002000O3OH CH4 +4.6 DU - 30 % NOX +4.1 + 14 CO +1.2 - 11 VOC +0.5- 5 sum +10 DU - 32 % “observed” +9 (±4) ??

  12. Effective Reactive Pollutant contribution to CH4 CH4320 Tg(CH4)/y = direct emission NOx 40 Tg(N)/y - 80 Tg(CH4)/y CO 1000 Tg/y + 50 Tg(CH4)/y VOC 250 Tg/y + 30 Tg(CH4)/y

  13. Validation of key components from the historical record is essential for credibility. Why do this just to get relative impacts? If the historical record in poorly reproduced, then the ‘model’ is in error or is missing key components of climate change  this challenges the accuracy of even the relative national impacts and makes the process likely to fail an IPCC review What does this validation test? Both models and emissions

  14. Validation of key components from the historical record is essential for credibility. What is the minimal set of historical climate parameters that (i) should be reproducible by simple models and (ii) provides critical tests of the climate change to date. FORCING CO2 record, CH4 record, aerosols ??? RESPONSE surface T (NH vs. SH ?), ocean Heat Content ? sea level rise

  15. mean CO2 & CH4 1880 – 2000

  16. Surface Temperature 1860 – 2000 ? NH – SH shows effect of aerosols

  17. Ocean Heat Content (upper 300 m) 1945 – 2000

  18. Sea Level Rise 1800 – 2000

  19. Validation of key components from the historical record is essential for credibility. What combination of historical data does it take to demonstrate that the “relative attribution” calculation is valid & without systematic errors ? total “attributable” forcing (missing sources) correct chemistry/carbon model (affects time-weighting of emissions) correct indirect forcing correct climate sensitivity (affects time-weighting of forcing)

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