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LESSLOSS Project

LESSLOSS Project. SP10 Disaster scenarios and loss modelling in urban areas. Emily So University of Cambridge. LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Estimation. Contents. Introduction University of Cambridge Human Casualty Model Introduction to Casualty Estimation

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LESSLOSS Project

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  1. LESSLOSS Project SP10 Disaster scenarios and loss modelling in urban areas Emily So University of Cambridge

  2. LessLoss SP10:Human Casualty Estimation Contents • Introduction • University of Cambridge Human Casualty Model • Introduction to Casualty Estimation • Improvements to the existing model • Proposed Methodology • Earthquake Surveys • Reconnaissance to Pakistan and Yogyakarta • Survey and initial results from analyses • Application for LessLoss Cities • Overview of global dataset (from research to date) • Casualty rates for the 3 LessLoss cities Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  3. LessLoss SP10:Human Casualty Estimation Human Casualty Estimation As identified in UCAM’s round of visits to the 3 cities, the modelling of human casulaties in the developed loss estimation models are less than adequate. Over the past 2 years, work has been done to improve casualty estimates based on Coburn and Spence (1992) as a new module to the loss estimation software developed within SP10. Injured girl from the Kashmir Earthquake of 8th Oct, 2005 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  4. In Istanbul, the population has increased more than 12 times since 1950s from one to twelve million. • More than 7 million people now reside in San Francisco as compared to 340,000 that lived there during the 1906 earthquake. LessLoss SP10:Human Casualty Estimation The primary aim of earthquake protection programmes is to SAVE LIVES. • Increased population density leading to development in more hazardous areas. • Short-term economic factors has resulted in uncontrolled development of potentially high hazard areas. Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  5. LessLoss SP10:Human Casualty Estimation Benefits of the SP10 Casualty Study • For loss estimation studies to be useful for earthquake protection, they need to include an assessment of probable levels of human casualties in terms of death and injuries: • Builds on work done in previous projects (National and EU) • Develop new database of casualties from important earthquakes • Achieves integration and mutual calibration of methodologies • Involves examining urban authorities’ provision of hospitals and transportation network • Improves understanding of mitigation and planning opportunities. Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  6. LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Modelling Cambridge University Casualty Model Based on the The Cambridge University Casualty Model (Coburn and Spence 1992, 2004, SECED) which estimates that structural collapses are responsible for 75% of deaths in earthquakes. The factors influencing the number of people killed per building collapse are said to fall into five major categories (M1 to M5) and the number of people killed in the collapses of any particular building type could be estimated, based on observed data. Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  7. Occupants at the time of collapse M3 1-M3 Not trapped Trapped M4 1-M4 Die instantly Don’t die instantly Uninjured or lightly injured Moderately injured M5 1-M5 Die later Don’t die later Seriously injured Moderately injured Not injured or lightly injured LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Modelling Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  8. LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Modelling Within the SP10 funding period, UCAM have examined published information derived from recent earthquake and carried out a progressive assessment of earthquake casualties to improve the previous model, concentrating on the following: • seismology • engineering building stock • cultural environment • human responses and behaviour • short and long-term economic issues • local planning and preparedness Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  9. and including injuries distribution and public health information into the model. Survey after the Kocaeli Earthquake (Petal, 2004) Severity of Injury Cambridge University Casualty Model:Improvements In particular, examining ways of approaching calculated vulnerabilities; Computer simulation of collapse using DEM, (Kiyono, 2004) Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  10. Cambridge University Casualty Model:Update Proposed Table of Standardisation of Injuries According to cost and severity Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  11. Cambridge University Casualty Model:Update Proposed Methodology Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  12. LessLoss SP10: Earthquake Surveys The Casualty Surveys 2006 • An opportunity to collect information 1st hand and understand the characteristics of these earthquakes. • Explore the casual pathway of injuries and aftercare. • Collate data on severities and types of injuries attributed to different damage states. • This data is relevant to European cities even though building types are very different. In collaboration with the University of Peshawar in Pakistan and Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta over 500 interviews have been done after reconnaissance visits to each location. Taken by Mr Jaz, (another interviewer) at Thandiani Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  13. LessLoss SP10: Earthquake Surveys Kashmir Earthquake, October 2005 Official figures taken from the Government website: • 73,318 people dead • 69,392 people seriously injured • 58,896 people suffer from minor injuries, but some have later died from tetanus and other diseases • 2.5m people left homeless • 203,579 houses completely destroyed • 196,574 houses damaged Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  14. Ghanool ChellaBandi MeraBandi LessLoss SP10: Kashmir Earthquake The sample include both affected districts: • Pakistan Administered Kashmir (AJK) • North West Frontier Province Villages identified: • Chella Bandi and Mera Bandi (AJK) • Kawai and Ghanool (in the Kaghan Valley) • Garlat (near Balakot) Garlat This intensity map illustrates the long reach of the earthquake ranging from Intensity X near the epicenter (orange = destruction) (www.asc-india.org) Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  15. LessLoss SP10: The Casualty Survey Earthquake Data • Where were you when the earthquake struck? • 4. What did you do when you felt the earthquake? Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  16. LessLoss SP10: The Casualty Survey Injury Data • 7. When were you injured? • Mark on where the injuries were. Also questions on entrapment, mode of rescue, treatment and thoughts on the future. Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  17. Cambridge University Casualty Model:The Casualty Survey Results Results from Surveys- Pakistan and Yogyakarta Sample Size • Pakistan: 2285 people ; 23% injured, 10% killed (of surviving households) • Indonesia: 2661 people, 12% injured, 2% killed Main injury types • Pakistan: upper and lower extremity fractures, internal injuries • Indonesia: bruises and minor cuts, head wounds Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  18. Cambridge University Casualty Model:The Casualty Survey Results Typical housing in Java, Indonesia Old Adobe housing near Manshera, Pakistan Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  19. Cambridge University Casualty Model:The Casualty Survey Results Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  20. LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Estimation Published Casualty Rates • There are published casualty rates related to building types given in HAZUS (indoor and outdoor) based on ATC-13 and a limited historical dataset for 4 injury severity levels, namely: • Injuries requiring basic medical aid (severity 1) • Hospitalized (severity 2) • Life threatening Injuries (severity 3) • Deaths (severity 4) These rates have been widely used outside California: adaptation in Australia (Fulford et al, 2005) suggests that HAZUS casualty rates overestimates both fatalities and injury severity 3. Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  21. LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Estimation Global earthquake casualty data A review of the different types of injuries caused by earthquakes shows that there is considerable variation of types and severity of injuries which appears to correlate with the predominantly affected type of buildings. • In the Armenia earthquake in 1988, 80% of the structures of one building-type were destroyed; in this case, it was the nine-story precast concrete frames known as Series 111 which was the main cause of 25,000 deaths. • For the same earthquake, a case control study carried out by Armenian et al (1992) identified that there is a higher risk of injuries for those who were in taller buildings and who were located on the higher floors of these buildings as well as for those who were indoors during the earthquake Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  22. LessLoss SP10: Published Casualty Rates Kocaeli 1999 Seligson et al (2006) analysed in particular the non-ductile concrete buildings in detail from the Golcuk dataset collected by Petal (2004) and found that published models like the ATC and HAZUS, whilst corresponding fairly well with surveyed fatalities, tended to underestimate the percentage of the population suffering non-fatal injuries in buildings of minor and moderate damage. Kobe 1995 This figure illustrates the distribution of injuries in lesser damage states and the importance of capturing this data as injuries are associated with partially and moderately collapsed buildings (Murakami et al, 2004). Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  23. LessLoss SP10: Proposed Casualty Rates Proposed Casualty Rates for SP10 • The set of injury state parameters for the three cities are derived from a review of collated data from recent earthquakes such as Kobe, Kocaeli and Chi Chi. • The casualty rates from loss estimation models such as HAZUS and ATC13 from the United States are used as reference. • Uses country specific data from previous earthquakes and takes into account of differences in survivability assisted by the presence of national search and rescue programs. Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  24. LessLoss SP10: Proposed Casualty Rates Includes progressive assessment of casualties stemming from other causal factors. Studies such as the Gölcük survey highlighting non-structural factors and injuries caused by lower damage states are also incorporated. Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  25. LessLoss SP10: Proposed Casualty Rates Sample Output Main building types in LessLoss city Distribution of injuries and uninjured as a percentage of total occupants in the buildings Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  26. LessLoss SP10:Human Casualty Estimation In the final phase of this project, global factors will be adapted for each of the cities, taking into account the building stock and likely collapse mechanisms of the local building types and also the likely search and rescue efficiency. These can form a part of future modification of the 3 loss modelling methodologies. Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

  27. Thank you ekms2@cam.ac.uk Acknowledgements: LessLoss CAR Ltd EPSRC Lisbon Dissemination Workshop

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