Societal Impacts, Social Science, and Weather: Making Good Decisions

1. Heather Lazrus1 1Social Science Woven into Meteorology (SSWIM), NOAA and the University of Oklahoma With special thanks to Eve Gruntfest1, Julie Demuth2 , Jeff Lazo2 & Melissa Tuttle Carr3 2National Center for Atmospheric Research 3Independent Consultant CNN Decision Support Symposium Amarillo, TX - 26 Oct 2010 Societal Impacts, Social Science, and Weather: Making Good Decisions

2. Integrating meteorology, emergency response and the social sciences can promote a safer and more informed society • Introduce and illustrate the connection between operational meteorology and hydrology and social sciences • Facilitate a dialogue for future efforts • Think specifically decision support TodayI’ll…

3. Symposium themes – how do societal impacts and social sciences fit in? • Emergency Response • Preparedness • Relationships • Societal Impacts • Big Impacts In Small Places Decisions – behavior, culture, risk, priorities, expectations, technologies, communication, goals … CONTEXT

4. Managing Expectations I’mnothere to… • Say social sciences have all the answers • To make you social scientists • To add to your workload I amhere to… • Provide some answers, information, and ideas • Offer ideas for collaboration between meteorology and social sciences • Answer your questions about social science!

5. Today’s outline • Social science • Societal impacts • Research examples and initial lessons • Collaborations: enhancing decisions • How to get engaged?

6. Vision SSWIM envisions collaborative research & partnershipsbetween the social sciences & meteorology, climatology, & hydrology to enhance societal relevance of research & practice & reduce risks from atmospheric & other hazards Mission SSWIMcreatively & sustainably weaves social science concepts & methodologiesinto the fabric of weather & climate research & practice through academic & professional activities locally, nationally & globally SSWIM www.sswim.org Social Science Woven into Meteorology

7. Social science is different than societal impacts Societal impacts can be examined scientifically AND societal impacts can be addressed using forecasters’ expertise BUT using the word “social” does not count as doing social science

8. Societal impacts • Societal – of or pertaining to the life, welfare, and relations of human beings • Impact – the effect of one thing on another • Societal impacts – the effect of weather and forecasts on human life, welfare, and relations • E.g., impacts – economic impact (crop loss), health impacts (heat stroke), emotional impact (property damage) We want to respond to societal impacts to reduce loss of life and property

9. Specific ways forecasters can consider societal impacts in forecasts Ask – the questions coming up today • Who will be impacted? • Are people… awake/sleeping/driving/harvesting/fishing/ constructing/graduating/getting married? • What has happened to this point? • Have there been fatalities? • What are the TV stations saying? • Have earlier events been “missed”? • (Courtesy of Daniel Nietfeld, SOO, WFO OAX)

10. Societal impacts Weather & forecasts have impacts on society Forecasts mitigate the impacts to society from weather

11. Ex societal impact - Rush hour tornado (OR – Kevin Starbuck’s Winter Storm Example) • Environmental conditions – favorable to produce a tornado • Societal impact– urban area with three interstate highways at rush hour • Action – a well warned event that conveyed a message to stay off of the roads • Effect – highways empty at rush hour No research went into this, but the societal impact was addressed beneficially based on forecasters’ understanding of local area and population

12. What is social science? Social scientists study aspects of human society • Beliefs & values • Ways of knowing • Ways of communicating • Behavior

13. Physical & social scientific processes

14. Social science includes diverse disciplines Social science is an umbrella term commonly used to refer to many fields that have different approaches and topics • Anthropology • Geography • Communication • Psychology • Political Science • Economics • Education • Sociology

15. Diverse methodologies Qualitative & quantitative approaches • Interviews • Structured • Semi-structured • Open interviews • Surveys • Direct observations • Participatory activities • Focus groups

16. Some social science questions • Who uses watches & outlooks? • When is watch & outlook information used? • How is the information best communicated? • i.e., twitter, radio, sirens, environmental cues • How is watch information & uncertainty understood • i.e., linguistic and cultural differences • How do people respond according to professional & personal responsibilities? • What are the economic, cultural, social values of watches & outlooks?

17. Ex of social science research – tornado • What vulnerability characteristicsinfluence people’s ability to take shelter? • How does one’s perception of place influence how they perceive a tornado threat? • How does one’s mental model of a tornado influence how they perceive a threat?

18. Ex of social science research – tornado • How do people use social media to get information during a tornado event? • How do people perceive how an automated weather call will alert them … and how does this influence how they respond? • How do forecasters’ knowledge and perceptions of their audiences influence the content of their warnings? Remember, meteorologists are humans too!

19. SSWIM research Phased Array Radar Innovative Sensing Experiment PARISE (w. P. Heinselman & D. Ladue) • Examines the influence of high temporal resolution radar dataon forecaster’s decision making & warning lead time • Observed 12 forecasters with 2 different storm scenarios & radar update speeds • Analysis of forecasters' actions, timing, reflections on the process Initial findings presented at National Weather Association Tucson 2010

20. SSWIM researchWarn on Forecast (National Severe Storms Laboratory) • Warn-on-Forecast will extend convective scale hazard warning lead times with numerical model forecasts • What is the utility of extended warning lead times, for whom and when? • A new warning response paradigm? • Success of WOF requires that it is developed in socially relevant ways that address informational needs and provide appropriate decision-support

21. WOF - Concept Stensrud, D. et al. 2009. “Convective Scale Warn-on-Forecast System: A Vision for 2020” BAMS

22. SSWIMresearch – Partnership with HWT & Global Systems Division NOAA 2009-2010 Integrated Hazard Information Services (IHIS) SSWIM is involved in developing IHIS to integrate partner & user needs • Interviews (September - October 2009) • Workshop Boulder, CO (October 2009) • Ethnographic field research: In-depth interviews & field research with emergency managers & broadcasters (2010-11) Jen Spinney, anthropologist, joins SSWIM for one year project

23. Research-to-Operations – IHIS and beyond Testing & Evaluation Conceptual Development Operational Use Prototyping Implementation Evaluation at every stage Physical scientists Developers Roles Forecasters Partners and users including emergency managers, broadcast meteorologists, others Social scientists Qualitative & quantitative activities Baseline data collection e.g. surveys, interviews Testbed Observations,experiments Success metrics Demos, scenarios Observations, ethnography Adapted from Global Systems Division 2009

24. SSWIM - part of the IHIS Team An inclusive Research-to-Operations conceptual model Private Sector & Media Developers Weather Forecasters 6 Publics Publics Emergency Managers & 1st Responders Researchers Changing the paradigm of hazardous weather warnings Temporal, spatial, & probabilistic information in weather forecasting & warning processes & decision-making

25. Future research is needed to fill in this timeline with a more representative sample of the decisions to be made & by whom TIME & SPACE Awareness raised among emergency managers, and other officials Nashville sirens sounded 1000 km Hospitals, Schools, Events? 100 Km 13 fatalities 44 injuries Near Lafayette, TN N-S Space Scale E-W 10 Km Area (Km2) Time Scale lead 4 3 2 6 5 1 0 km Feb 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 real Jan 31 Feb 4 Feb 5 10 Km 26 tornado warnings issued 8 severe storm warnings 100 Km 1st warning issued 9pm First outlook issued 2nd watch issued (3pm) 1st watch issued (2pm) 1000 km

26. EXAMPLE: Changing “public education” and warning response paradigms We need more than more accurate information to save lives We need to understand why people behave as they do

27. Whose decisions? The “right” message is ONE piece of the puzzle to change behaviors • Drivers know there are warnings & where hazardous low water crossings are but THEY NEED TO GO to work • Potential to lose their job is perceived as a greater risk than potentially dying while driving across flooded road • Better information alone is NOT going to change behavior • Weather warnings are part of complex decision making with many other considerations – BEHAVIORS must be understood to improve warning responses Evaluate public education efforts - Before, during, after

28. Keep in mind… • Social sciences are not about controlling people … they are about understanding people • E.g., we’ll never be able to keep all meteorologists from going outside to look at a tornado • There is no “correct” behavior • Decisions are contextual, and weather sometimes isn’t the main factor (again, the need for understanding) • Social sciences have taught us a lot, but weather-specific research is still in its infancy

29. When helping people make the “right” (best, appropriate) decisions, keep in mind… decisions depend on the context! • Humans are like the atmosphere… • …they’re both • non-linear, dynamic, and seemingly chaotic! • BUT, there are things we can learn

30. Collaborations are key to enhance decision making • Social scientists, NWS, and NWS partners (emergency managers, broadcasters, others) work together • Value and integrate each others’ expertise • Listen to and learn from each other • Co-produce new knowledge • Understanding context – political, economic, cultural priorities, and goals (e.g., media v forecast) • Collaborations will promote a safer and more informed society

31. Some NWS resources & suggestions • WAS*Isers & friends • NWS participants (including the SOOs!), Broadcasters, Emergency Managers, Researchers, Social scientists • NWS social science focal point – Jen Sprague • SAFER workshop • Craig Schmidt & Darone Jones • Water & Society * Integrated Studies • Wendy Pearson (Central Region) • Integrated Warning Team (IWT) workshops (just a sample) • Julie Adolphson & Andy Bailey (Kansas City/Pleasant Hill) • Jim Meyer & Dan Nietfeld (Omaha/Valley) • Ray Wolf (Quad Cities) • Mike Coyne & Krissy Scotten (Huntsville)

32. WAS*IS • WAS*IS is an important capacity-building effort • Builds an interdisciplinary community of people passionate about social science and meteorology • Promotes new ways of thinking about issues that fall at the interface of meteorology and society • Workshops provide a forum to discuss these issues • WAS*IS is not a research program • Can inspire collaborations • Can spur research ideas

33. Join the societal impacts discussion board! http://www.rap.ucar.edu/forums/phpBB2/

34. Key take-home points • Ultimate goal of weather forecasting is to create societal value by providing usable information for decision making • We’re not trying to add to workloads • Societal impacts and social science are relevant to NWS’s mission… not just buzzwords! • Social sciences use the scientific process • Societal impacts and social sciences both have a role … but they’re not the same … and each has its place • Collaborations!

35. Thank you! Heather Lazrus – lazrus@ou.edu www.sswim.org