1 / 26

Unit 2

Unit 2. Ch 6-11 Inputs to US Government. Public opinion. Shared attitudes of many people on politics, issues, etc. Measured by opinion polls Usually by professional polling companies – media & politicians pay Must be valid to be reliable. Why do politicians care?.

Download Presentation

Unit 2

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Unit 2 Ch 6-11 Inputs to US Government

  2. Public opinion • Shared attitudes of many people on politics, issues, etc. • Measured by opinion polls • Usually by professional polling companies – media & politicians pay • Must be valid to be reliable

  3. Why do politicians care? • Public opinion = election success • Strategy – what issues to focus on • Not what to believe(usually) • Only if newly important issue – (no evidence of previous policy stance) • There is video evidence if politicians change their minds (flip-floppers!)

  4. Is this bad? • We want consistency • But we also want representation • Our opinions change over time, but we want politicians to be decisive • If they want to win, they don’t contradict public opinion

  5. 2 ideas about representatives • Delegates • Sent as mouthpieces of constituency • Follow public opinion to the letter, no conscience or judgment allowed • Trustees • Given autonomy to make decisions • Use best judgment for public interest

  6. Delegates & trustees • Difference in real life • Whatever the voters want • Politicians want to be trustees, voters want them to be delegates

  7. Reliability in polling • Polls are more reliable if: • Random & representative sample • Allows for smaller margin of error • Valid, unbiased questions & analysis

  8. Potential problems w/polls • Selection bias • People choose not to participate • Biased/leading questions • Intensity • Polls don’t always measure passion • Latency • Ideas on the “back burner”

  9. Push polls • Attempt to “push” respondents to desired result • Parties & candidates • Biased, leading questions • Try to create bandwagon effect

  10. Important opinion polls • Presidential approval rating • Most important poll in US politics • Every week since 1937 • Typical phrasing: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?"

  11. Presidential approval rating • Honeymoon period • Usually high at beginning of term • Americans give Pres a chance • Fluctuates based on policies & response to events • Always drops later when promises become disappointing reality

  12. George W. Bush • Holds record for both highest & lowest approval ratings ever • Highest – 90% Sept 2001 • Lowest – 25% Oct 2008

  13. George W. Bush

  14. Barack Obama

  15. Presidential approval rating • POTUS’s relationship w / Congress • Other party unlikely to stand up to a popular POTUS • If POTUS is unpopular – own party runs from him (esp. in an election yr)

  16. Other important polls • Campaign polls • “If the election were held today, who would win your vote?” • Problems: • What if they don’t vote? • What if they change their minds? • Reliable if likely voters asked close to election date

  17. Other important polls • Exit polls • Voters polled in the parking lot • Reliable: • Not a prediction – an actual vote • Unreliable: • Random/representative sample? • News media use this to predict results – usually very good

  18. Bad exit polls • 1980 – Reagan / Carter • NBC declared for Reagan at 8:30 EST • Did PST Dems decide not to vote? • 2000 – Bush / Gore • Florida debacle

  19. Mass Media • Media ownership • America compared to world • US: Need ratings for revenue

  20. Mass Media • Media history • Early – newspapers political • Progressive Era – crusaders • Modern – strive for impartiality

  21. Mass Media • Media bias • Reporters tend to be liberal • Any bias in reporting tends to be against incumbents • Crusading for weak against strong • Desire for interesting stories

  22. Mass Media • Media restrictions • FCC • Fairness Doctrine

  23. Mass Media • Media and politics • Don’t cover in-depth issues • Campaign events • Campaign polls (horse race)

  24. Mass Media • Media and politics • Releases & briefings • Press conferences / press secretary • Leaks – trial balloons • On/off record / backgrounders

  25. Mass Media • What limits influence of media? • Selective exposure • Avoid exposure to media that goes against your beliefs • Selective perception • Filter what you see through your own bias (hear what you want to)

  26. Mass Media • What limits influence of media? • Attentive public • Only about 30-35% of Americans pay attention to the news at all

More Related