Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science

1. Skepticism: the Intertwining of Politics and Science M. Leach May 4, 2011

2. Models and Uncertainty • Surface Temperature • Clouds • Water Vapor • Ice

3. Consensus vs. Minority Consensus Minority Earth is warming Not clear that it is human induced Models used are full of uncertainty Thinks that society is overreacting • Earth is warming • Warming is Human Induced • Certainty about the first two • Leads some to propose mitigation technologies that we discussed last time

4. Some Prominent (science) skeptics Richard Lindzen, Professor, MIT John Christy, Professor, UAH Roger Pielke, Sr. Professor, CSU and CU Bill Cotton, Professor, CSU Roy Spencer, UAH and NASA

5. Criteria for any Technological Fix The technology must embody a cause-effect relationship The effects of the technological fix must be assessable Research and development must focus on improvement

6. Politics mixing with science • During the GWB admininstration, James Hansen, NASA (i.e. US Govt) scientist was warned against speaking to the media. • There have been ad hominem attacks against scientists questioning their motives (and therefore their character). • This occurs on both “sides”, but appears to be more inclusive against the skeptics

7. Books • The Assault on Reason, Al Gore • The Republican War on Science, Chris Mooney • Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor, Roy Spencer • Climategate: A Veteran Meteorologist Exposes the Global Warming Scam, Brian Sussman

8. Moulin

9. Dynamics of a Moulin

10. Leads and Polynya

11. Leads and Polynyas Temperature Heat Flux

12. Hydrologic Cycle

13. Clouds and Precipitation

14. The Models

15. Uncertainty in the Models • The problems “are so complex that it may take many decades, or even centuries (If ever!) before we have matured enough as a scientific community to make credible predictions of long-term climate trends and their corresponding regional impacts” William Cotton and Roger Pielke Sr. (CSU)

16. Model Progress in the last Decade • Model resolution • Cloud feedbacks • El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) • Aerosol processes • Land surface (carbon cycling, soil moisture, multilayer snow models) • Sea-ice dynamics

17. But uncertainty persists • Clouds • Clouds • Clouds • Water Vapor • Ice sheet dynamics • Glaciers and ice caps • Ocean upwelling

18. Other GCM Issues • Tuning • Incompleteness • Polar amplification • Polar stratification and Ozone depletion • Propagating Impacts of Changes in the Stratopshere • Moulins and Sea Level Rise • Sources of Methane • Underestimating vs. Overestimating Climate Change • Climate Sensitivity in the models

19. Data Limitations and Climate Complexity • Maybe the source of much of the controversy • Too short (e.g. satellites, thermometers) • Too incomplete spatially (e.g. ice cores) • Too lacking in consistency (space and time) • Tree rings • Ice cores • Ocean sediments • Thermometers and satellites

20. Social Pressures • Polar Sea Ice • Balanced Presentations • Peer Review • Politicians and Political Views entering the discussion • Scientists trying to influence policy • acc • Media issues

21. The Ethics in the Debate If we accept the IPCC conclusion that we are harming the environment and therefore our descendants We benefited tremendously from our ancestors; we have a debt to our descendants We have a personal stake in the future; our descendants will be the earthly judges of the value of our lives

22. Some Simple Actions • A little discomfort • Public transportation • Individual: take it • Societal: improve it • Locally grown produce • Less meat • Fluorescent Lighting