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Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 2 May 2011. For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/. Outline. Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status Monsoons Current Status

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Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas

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Northern hemisphere weather climate over major crop areas l.jpg

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas

Update prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

2 May 2011

For Real-time information:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/


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Outline

  • Highlights

  • ENSO Current Status

  • MJO Current Status

  • Monsoons Current Status

  • Northern Hemisphere Circulation

  • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns

  • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast

  • Forecast Verification


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ENSO Current Status

  • General Summary:

  • La Niña conditions continued across the equatorial Pacific.

  • Negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies persist across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, while SSTs are now above-average in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

  • Atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with La Niña remain significant.

  • A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2011.

During the last 4-weeks (3 – 30 Apr 2011), equatorial SSTs were generally 0.5°C or more below average between 170°E and 140°W, while above-average temperatures have emerged in the eastern Pacific.

For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


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MJO Index -- Recent Evolution

Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast

  • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes

  • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO

  • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.

  • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength

  • Line colors distinguish different months

RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days

light gray shading: 90% of forecasts

dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts

Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members

Green Line – Ensemble Mean

MJO Current Status

The MJO signal remained weak during the previous week.

Strengthening of the MJO signal is expected during week 1, with a large forecast spread in week 2.

For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml


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Northern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status

North America

West Africa

East Asia

Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days

Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days

Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days

Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP

Monsoon Season: MAY-OCT

Monsoon Season: JUN-SEP

The North American Monsoon season has ended. Precipitation during the past 90 days has been near average.

During the last 90 days near average rainfall has occurred in west Africa near Senegal and Guinea.

Below average rainfall has occurred in central Africa.

During the last 90 days above average rainfall has occurred in Indonesia. This is consistent with La Nina conditions.

For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/


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200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days

Northern Hemisphere Circulation

Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations.

Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.


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Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days

Northern Hemisphere Circulation

Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions.

Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.


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Canada and US

  • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns

  • Temperature Patterns

  • GFS Forecast


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Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days

Total

Anomaly


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Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days

Total

Anomaly


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Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days

Total

Anomaly


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Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days


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Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)

Anomaly

Extreme Minimum

Anomaly

Extreme Minimum


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Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)

Anomaly

Extreme Minimum

Anomaly

Extreme Minimum


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NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 2 May 2011 – Days 1-7

Total

Anomaly


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NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 2 May 2011 – Week 2

Total

Anomaly


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Mexico and Central America

  • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns

  • Temperature Patterns

  • GFS Forecast


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Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days

Total

Anomaly

For more information see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pdf


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Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days

Total

Anomaly


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Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days

Total

Anomaly


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Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days


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NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 2 May 2011 – Days 1-7

Total

Anomaly


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NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 2 May 2011– Week 2

Total

Anomaly


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Eurasia

  • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns

  • Temperature Patterns

  • GFS Forecast


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Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days

Total

Anomaly


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Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days

Total

Anomaly


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Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days

Total

Anomaly


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Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days


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Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)

Anomaly

Extreme Minimum

Anomaly

Extreme Minimum


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Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)

Anomaly

Extreme Minimum

Anomaly

Extreme Minimum


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Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days


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Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)

Anomaly

Extreme Minimum

Anomaly

Extreme Minimum


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NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 2 May 2011 – Days 1-7

Total

Anomaly

For more information on Global Tropical Hazards see: (updated Tuesday at 1pm)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ghaz.shtml


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NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts from 2 May 2011 – Week 2

Total

Anomaly


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Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS)

Meteorological Products for the

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS-NET)

Mesoamerica Famine Early Warning System (MFEWS)

Asia Flood Network (AFN)

Funded by the

United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

Hazards Impacts Assessments for

Central America

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/central_america/central_america_hazard.pdf

Africa

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/africa_hazard.pdf

Afghanistan

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/AFGHANISTAN/afghanistan_hazard.pdf

Additional products at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/


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Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles

Crop Calendars by Month

http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP

http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars

USDA Crop Information


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