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The Future?

The Future?. Global Trends 2035. 1. Big Power Rivalry?. New Cold War or…. South China Sea Timeline. China’s Nine-Dash Line. Competing Claims. Oil and Gas. Oil Trade. Natural Gas Trade. Spratly Islands Disputes. Mischief Reef Chinese “ Naval Base ”. 1990s. 2010s.

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The Future?

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  1. The Future? Global Trends 2035

  2. 1. Big Power Rivalry? New Cold War or…

  3. South China SeaTimeline

  4. China’s Nine-Dash Line

  5. Competing Claims

  6. Oil and Gas

  7. Oil Trade

  8. Natural Gas Trade

  9. Spratly Islands Disputes

  10. Mischief ReefChinese “Naval Base” 1990s 2010s

  11. Philippine Claim to the Second Thomas Shoal

  12. UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 1982 • 12 mile limit from a nation’s coast: legal jurisdiction for the nation • 200 miles form a nation’s coast Exclusive economic rights for the nation • Dispute resolution mechanism • Direct talks between the parties. • If they fail: • submission of the dispute to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea • adjudication by the International Court of Justice • submission to binding international arbitration procedures • submission to special arbitration tribunals with expertise in specific types of disputes. All of these procedures involve binding third-party settlement • Exceptions for cases involving national sovereignty. Parties submit their dispute to a conciliation commission; results are non-binding.

  13. Summer 2016:Philippines v. China in Court • Ruling by Permanent Court of Arbitration • Summary

  14. 2. Interdependence

  15. US Trade Partners

  16. China Trade Partners

  17. 3. Multipolarity

  18. 4. US leadership? • United Nations • World Trade Organization • IMF • World Bank • IAEA • NATO • APEC

  19. 5. Ideological Leadership Liberal Democracy vs. • Theocracy • Soft Authoritarianism

  20. 6. Domestic Problems • James Moody and Peter Mucha. “Portrait of Political Party Polarization.” Network Science / Volume 1 / Issue 01 / April 2013, pp 119-121

  21. Education Program for International Student Assessment rankings 2006 2009 Ranking: Reading 17th Math: 31st Science: 23rd

  22. Deficit and Debt Federal Deficit (Historical Tables) (2017)

  23. National Debt National Debt: the accumulated deficits, plus other incurred debt by the US National Debt Clock http://www.usdebtclock.org/

  24. Who owns the Debt 2011?Federal Reserve information • US Federal Reserve and other Government Financial Entities • Other Investors/Savings Bonds • China • Japan • Pension Funds • Money Market Funds/Mutual Funds • State and Local Governments in US • UK • Banks • Insurance Companies • OPEC nations • Brazil • Caribbean nations • Hong Kong • Canada

  25. US Defense Spending

  26. Defense as % of Federal Budget

  27. Defense Spending as a Percentage of GDP

  28. 7. Fundamental Changes? • Transformation of the Nation-state System: • Urbanization plus increased inequality • People Power or State Failure? • Disturbance Democracy • Non-State Actors • US Turns Inward: Rejects Leadership • Infectious Diseases • Climate Change

  29. A1. Urbanization plus increased inequality Caracas, Venezuela

  30. Mumbai, India

  31. Megacities • Tokyo, Japan: 2016: 38,140,000 • Delhi, India: 2016: 26,454,000 • Shanghai, China: 2016: 24,484,000 • Mumbai (Bombay), India: 2016: 21,357,000 • São Paulo, Brazil: 2016: 21,297,000 • Beijing, China: 2016: 21,240,000 • Mexico City, Mexico: 2016: 21,157,000 •  Osaka, Japan: 2016: 20,337,000 • Cairo, Egypt:2016: 19,128,000 • New York-Newark, USA: 2016: 18,604,000

  32. A2. People Power or State Breakdown? Arab Uprising 2011

  33. A3. Disturbance Democracy: 1999 Battle for Seattle

  34. London 2011

  35. Ukraine 2014

  36. A4. Non-State Actors Mapping Militant Organizations (Reference) • al-Shabab vs. Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia (and US) • ISIL vs. Iraq, Iran, Syria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia (and US) • Boko Haram vs. Nigeria, Cameroon, Mali, Niger

  37. ISIS’s Global Reach

  38. Transnational Organized Crime:Mexico vs. Drug Cartels (2015 numbers)

  39. B. US Turns Inward: Rejects Leadership Public Opinion Runs Against Syrian Airstrikes, Pre Research Center for the People and the Press, SEPTEMBER 3, 2013 Widespread Middle East Fears that Syrian Violence Will Spread, Pew Research Global Attitudes Project, MAY 1, 2013

  40. America First?

  41. C. Infectious Disease

  42. D. Climate Change (from NOAA)

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