Structural Deterrence Theory: Policy Implications. Quantitative arms races can help prevent warQualitative arms races are destabilizingEffective defense systems are destabilizingThe selective proliferation of nuclear weapons can help prevent warAccidental war is the gravest threat to peace. Structural Deterrence Theory: Empirical Problems.
Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.
1. Structural Deterrence Theory: Major Deductions Parity relationships, when coupled with high war costs, are especially stable
Asymmetric power relationships are unstable
As the absolute cost of war increases, the probability of war decreases
3. Structural Deterrence Theory: Empirical Problems A balance of power is not a good predictor of peace
Nuclear states do not seem to act differently than non-nuclear states
An asymmetric distribution of power is not a good predictor of major power war
States seldom pursue proliferation policies
4. Decision-Theoretic Deterrence: Major Premises and Predictions Relationship between nuclear states is best modeled by Chicken
Nuclear war is “irrational”
Only accidental war is possible
During crises, states should pursue “commitment tactics” such as making an irrevocable commitment to a hard-line strategy, forfeiting control over actions, and feigning “irrationality”
5. Decision-Theoretic Deterrence: Logical Problems Deterrence is not stable in Chicken
Question: How can the stability of the Cold War period be explained?
6. Decision-Theoretic Deterrence: Empirical Problems States are risk-averse: they avoid commitments and almost always seek to maintain flexibility
7. Robert Jervis observes: “Although we often model superpower relations as a game of Chicken, in fact the United States and the USSR have not behaved like reckless teenagers”
8. Classical Deterrence Theory