Deterrence and War

Deterrence and War • Notes for • Deterrence • Technology and War • The Future of War

Deterrence • Deterrence is the effort by one actor to persuade another actor to refrain from some action by convincing the opponent that the costs will exceed the rewards of the act. • Deterrence, in order to be successful, must meet two conditions: • The capabilities to complete the threat must be present, and • The will, or intent, or resolve, must be present. • These two elements make the deterrent credible

Mutually Assured Destruction • In the age of MAD, the possession of a protected first strike capability means that one can always inflict unacceptable harm. • Such a condition becomes self-limiting, a constraint as well as an asset. • You cannot press to the limit for something it is clear that you are not willing to risk unlimited destruction for

Brinkmanship • Push the other side to the limit to see who backs down. • Cuban missile crisis 1963 • “Till the other side blinks” • There is no crisis if both states’ level of resolve is known. • It is uncertainty that makes Brinkmanship feasible

Strategic doctrine • The doctrine of massive retaliation gave way to flexible response as Soviet military capability made the capability calculus more suspect, and the resolve less credible. • Note that doctrine must evolve to maintain credibility in the face of evolving political and military realities.

Flexible response • Flexible response buttresses up nuclear deterrence by allowing “low-level nuclear exchanges” • Such low-level exchanges carry the risk of further escalation, hence retain credibility where MAD would not. • This returns to Hermann Kahn’s escalation ladder.

Deterrence and Rationality • Discussions of deterrence state that deterrence relies on the assumption of “rational behavior” on the part of the opponent.

The Calculus of Deterrence • The Calculus of Deterrence is thus rather simple: • The costs of the action on the part of the ‘deteree’ must be seen to exceed the benefits that accrue from the act. • In conceptual terms:

The Deterrence sequence • (1) Determine apparent threat. • (2) Assess own interests and capabilities. • (3) Assess opponents interests and capabilities. • (4) Make implicit or explicit threat to impose costs if event occurs. • (5) Follow up deterrent threat if required. Otherwise credibility becomes lower in later deterrent situations.

Some propositions about deterrence (Craig & George) • Deterrence is not simply a matter of announcing a commitment and backing it up with threats • It is heavily context dependent. • It is difficult to design a deterrent threat that will deter all options available to the attacker • Deterrence often fails in stages rather than all at once. • Deterrence is often at best a time-buying strategy.

Stable Deterrent • Not only should a deterrent be credible, it needs to be stable. • A deterrent threat should not provoke the other side to act. • Does SDI make nuclear deterrence unstable?

Coercive diplomacy • Coercive diplomacy seeks to reverse actions which have already occurred. • A combination of diplomatic action and military force which occurs to force the other side to back down. Usually more difficult to implement. • Best example – Cuban Missile Crisis • Best failure – Persian Gulf • Often a try-and-see strategy…

Extended Deterrence • When a deterrent threat is extended to cover an ally, we call this extended deterrence. • Extended immediate deterrence is the situation where the ally is threatened by immediate action on the part of the attacker and failure to act will result in an immediate attack on the ally state.

Military/Political Doctrine • Purist - Military should leave politics to politicians. • Give advice strictly on military terms • Fusionist – the nature of the modern world dictates that politics and military issues have converged. • Military advice must be hedges or advised by political advice

Arms Races • Arms races are a frequently observed phenomenon • This “observation” tends to be ‘conventional wisdom” more than empirically supported.

Arms Races - Definition • Arms races are reaction processes whereby the participants react towards arms acquisitions by partners (opponents) by acquiring more themselves. • The arms race implies an escalating cycle of acquisition/purchasing.

Arms races – Friendly Ones? • Arms races are typically between opponents • e.g US-Soviet, Egypt-Israel, India-Pakistan • Occasionally, they are between friendly rivals • Britain-France, US-Britain

Arms Races - Types • Quantitative • Increased spending ($) • Increases in system components (ships, missiles, warheads) • Qualitative • Changes in system type • The New Look • Star wars • NMD

Quantitative arms races • Spending • Ships • Missiles • Warheads • Soldiers

Qualitative arms races • Nuclear weapons • Historical examples ? • Technology • Persian Gulf • Air defense interdiction • Stealth • ECM

Technology and International Relations • Four concepts to keep in mind with the changes in technology • Loss-of-strength gradient • E.g. Melee vs. ranged weapons • Offense vs. defense • Technology influences the ability of political units to sustain themselves • “Lanchester Battle Theory” • Assessment based on force structures • Ancient times – linear multipliers • Modern war – squared multipliers

Paleolithic - < 10,000 BCE • Bones, sticks (melee weapons for you gamers out there) • Fire hardened sticks • Clubs • Ranged weapons • Rocks • Darts • Slings • Bow, Arrow • Spears, javelin, atlatl

Paleolithic – Defense • Fire • the wall • smaller # of defenders versus attackers • wait prepared • this made agriculture "cost-effective“ • Lanchester theory • 3-1 ratio of offense to defense is classical estimate

Neolithic – Mêlée weapons(10,000 BCE – 3,000 BCE) • Axe • Sword • Mace • Knife • Polearms (quarterstaff, trident)

Neolithic – Ranged weapons • Spear, javelin, atlatl • Blowgun • Throwing sticks, axes • Dart

Neolithic – Defense & Armour • Amour • Shield • cataphract • Siege Weapons • Siege Tower

Greeks • The phalanx • Hoplites locked shields • Second & third ranks poked spears over • Allowed greater ratio of fighters • Lanchester battle theory (equations) • Military discipline • allowed for protection on the right • made attacks predictable • The ability to march and maneuver offset this. • Siege weapons

Greek Weapons • Crossbow (but also China) – 5th Cent BCE • Siege weapons • Ballista • Catapult • Greave • Greek Fire

Roman Empire • Professional soldier • discipline • Mobility • Roads • Prohibited castles • increase in horsemanship • Stirrups invented by chinese in 477 AD (?) • Made it to Europe in 7th & 8th century • Rome allowed castles • height • Fortress Europe

Roman Weapons • Static Weapons – Caltrops • Testudo

Medieval • Seige weapons • Onager – sling with single rock • Mangonel – bucket-like catapult • Battering rams • Trebuchet • Petard – explosive for attacking walls

Medieval • Used scatteringly in Europe • 110 years war, Battle of Crecy, 1346 • Cannon • Constantinople 1453 • The Great Turkish Bombard • The fort/castle evolves • Forts & castles abound during this period due to the loss of either central authority or ‘national security’ • Star forts

Castles • Motte-and-bailey – mounds with perimeter ditches, and wooden palisade • Keep – inner fortification • Gatehouses to protect weakest spot • Rounded walls to protect from cannon and square towers to protect from mining and battering rams

Castles & Cannon • With the advent of castles, Europe fragmented in 1000s of principalities • With cannon the trend reversed • Cannon shifted the balance of power to the side with the most cash • Artillery is expensive to purchase, maintain and practice • The side with the most money wins

Seapower • The Galley had been the mainstay of naval weaponry for 2000 years • ramming and boarding the traditional maneuver • Cannon changed this. • Replaced by man-o-war in 14th-15th century • up to 40% of the firepower could be used at one time. • Sailing speed increased somewhat up until the adoption of steam propulsion and ironclads. – • This led to the need for supply bases (ports) which led to a further rash of colonization in the late 1800's

Seapower and trade • The caravel formed the first trading fleets (Prince Henry the Navigator) • Utilized more diverse sail arrangements (lateen as well as square sails) • Maps become substantially better in late 15th early 16th century

Seapower and wealth • Seapower aids in the development of regional economies, and eventually to the development of a global economy • Naval capacity allows for • greater comparative advantage • More direct transactions (fewer intermediaries) hence greater access to the developing markets

American Revolution • Musket – muzzle loader • The long land pattern musket – • Or “Brown Bess” • Tactics changed as the weapons became more available

The American Civil War • The trench • Railroad • Balloon • Ironclads • Breech loading rifle • Spenser repeating rifle

WWI • Machine gun (WWI)- defensive • Tank (WWI) • The Airplane (WWI) • Poison Gas/Chemical weapons • Submarine (Invented in Revolutionary War) • Radio

WWII • Sub Machine gun – portable, offensive • Automobile • The aircraft carrier • Radar • Rocket/missile (WWII) • Nuclear weapons (WWII)

Vietnam • Helicopter • Computers • Precision instruments • Satellites • ICBMs

Persian Gulf/Iraq • Stealth technology • Information battlefield • Cyber War • Unmanned aircraft • Predator

All of which leads us to the present • Star Wars • NMD • Cyber War • Weapon system senility • Weapon systems age • Or become vulnerable and are replaced

Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative - NMD) • Begun in previous administrations • Nike-Zeus • ABM • And announced and promoted under Reagan • SDI is a defensive concept • Concept is the implementation of a defensive shield to protect against ICBMs

Type of SDI systems • Energy Weapons • Lasers • Particle Beams • Space bases kinetic energy weapons • Rail guns • Interceptors • Ground based ABM systems • ERIS (Exo-atmospheric Reentry Interceptor Subsystem) • HEDI (High Endo-atmospheric Defense Interceptor)

Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative - NMD) • The basics of anti-ballistic missile defense • Time Altitude • Boost phase 300 - 50 secs 400km • Bus Phase 60 - 650 secs • Midcourse Phase • Reentry Phase

Kinetic energy weapons • KE weapons work based upon their velocity, and the velocity of the target • Thus a 1gr bullet traveling at 2000km/sec imparts 2000000gr/sec2 of energy • Thus a 1gr bullet traveling at 12000km/sec imparts 72000000gr/sec2 of energy • Damage is exponential with velocity

Effort for Full SDI Shield • The magnitude of the support effort required • 1. # of satellites • since effective range of most systems is 1000km • satellites must be in low earth orbit. Therefore on station only 5% of the time 24000/1000 = 24 satellites for 100% coverage • If each satellite can hit 140 launch vehicles • (or 1400 deployed MIRVs) • this means 240 satellites • If each satellite requires 3 shuttle/lifter launches • @ $100M apiece…

Deterrence and War