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Globalisation and poverty reduction. Can the rural poor benefit from globalisation?: An Asian perspective Globalisation challenge and policy options Traditional rural agricultural poor vs new poor Policy options and implications. Globalisation propelled by ICT, KBE.

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Globalisation and poverty reduction l.jpg
Globalisation and poverty reduction

  • Can the rural poor benefit from globalisation?: An Asian perspective

  • Globalisation challenge and policy options

  • Traditional rural agricultural poor vs new poor

  • Policy options and implications


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Globalisation propelled by ICT, KBE

  • magnitude, scale, complexity crossborder transactions and interdependence

  • institution, process not globalisation ready

  • applied to urban industrial, not rural agricultural sectors

  • creative destruction of industries and jobs accentuated income, employment insecurity

  • spillover to agriculture, digital divide


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Globalisation ready

  • Northeast Asia vs Southeast Asia

  • Open, statist,export-led developmental state

  • Captured liberalisation, sins of commission, omission, poor design, implementation

  • Self-serving rent-seeking, vulnerability

  • Two levels of globalisation adjustment

    • economic competitiveness

    • socio-political opening and competition


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AFC

  • FDI vs portfolio investment vs M&As

  • Local entrepreneurship, ownership

  • Weak recovery, reneging on corporate, financial reform

  • China, ASEAN4, South Asia did better

  • Lower population growth, ageing

  • Challenges for healthcare, social security and protection


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Growth and poverty reduction

  • Open macroeconomic policies, mkt-friendly

  • Improve private sector, NGOs

  • State cannot do it alone

  • Free, open mkts vs corrupt gp of oligarchs

  • Misguided efforts to restrict trade, investment, income redistribution

  • Socio-political stability + democratisation

  • Rural poverty declines, urban poverty rises


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Rural agricultural opportunities

  • Commodity production, prices as buffer

  • Reabsorb unemployed and retrenched

  • Lost overseas remittances

  • Remiss not to extend, apply globalisation across rural agricultural sector

  • More balanced dualistic structure

    • Supply side: fuel, food, raw materials, labour, finance, saving, tax

    • Demand side: market, improvement,stimulate


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Types of poor

  • Structural changes vs cyclical, idiosyncratic

  • Distinguish: welfare and development, crisis response and development

  • Welfare for permanent destitute, people without assets, productive resources

    • recurrent cost to society

  • Development programmes for entrepreneurial poor

    • social and economic Investment


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Types of poor

  • Temporary poor: welfare & investment

  • Unexpectedly fall into poverty

  • Emergency welfare component vs continuing commitment to investment

  • Long term sustainable development for entrepreneurial vs short term welfare relief

  • Formal government programmes vs existing institutionalised nonformal governance systems


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Types of poor

  • Inflation,devaluation, purchasing power

  • Labour market adjusted with fall in earnings

  • Flight to quality of education, health, access

  • Causes of poverty:lack market opportunities

  • Assets to tap, take advantage of mkts

  • Neither voice nor capability

  • Political,social constraints, governance

  • Landlessness, land tenure


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New poor

  • New poor: poor as result of major event

    • Economic crisis

    • Change in economic system

    • Political changes

    • Terrorist attacks

    • Natural disasters

  • Preventive, mitigation and coping strategies

  • Emphasise social safety nets, other short term programmes and delivery


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New poor

  • Old core poor in terms of absolute poverty

  • New poor with structural, globalisation , cyclical downturn and idiosyncratic events

    • new rich made poor, urban middle income class plunge

    • emergent fresh graduates graduating into nothing

    • migrant homecoming poor retrenched due to globalisation, cyclical idiosyncratic downturns


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Contrarian Asianmodel

  • Communitarian, family soc networks

  • Rapid growth for poverty reduction

  • Pte social safety net provision by employers, community and families

  • State as provider-of-last resort, residualist, minimalist approach

  • Organic relationship between state and individual society as natural organism


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Economic vs social competitiveness

  • Govt spending on social services, education, health, safety nets, social security systems

  • Identify, protect vulnerable groups

  • Socio-political harmony and cohesiveness, religious and cultural tolerance

  • Social trust and social capital

  • Asia used to hubris, wealth not manage expectations, risks in unexpected calamities or punctuated equilibrium


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Urban-industry vs rural-agriculture

  • Social and community bases of social security and safety nets eroded by industry

  • Rural-urban migration, universal education

  • Europeans got it right in dualistic sector

  • Socialisation, social policy, social capital

  • Social trust, glue threatened by structural, technological and cyclical changes demographic transition and ageing


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Conclusion and policy implications

  • Globalisation, ICT, KBE favourable

  • Seduced by rapid, high technology growth

  • Over concentrated on industrial policy

  • Corresponding neglect of agriculture

  • Socioeconomic of balanced dualistic model

  • Rural sector needs ICT, KBE for better production, marketing, distribution, R&D

  • Mkt incentives to reorient FDI, TNCs, HRD


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Conclusion and policy implications

  • Asian regionalism

  • China-ASEAN FTA, APT

  • Agriculture-led

    • domestic demand

    • high marginal propensity to consume

    • low marginal propensity to import

    • high saving, prudent spending

    • brand of village politics and democratisation


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