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Globalisation and poverty reduction. Can the rural poor benefit from globalisation?: An Asian perspective Globalisation challenge and policy options Traditional rural agricultural poor vs new poor Policy options and implications. Globalisation propelled by ICT, KBE.

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globalisation and poverty reduction
Globalisation and poverty reduction
  • Can the rural poor benefit from globalisation?: An Asian perspective
  • Globalisation challenge and policy options
  • Traditional rural agricultural poor vs new poor
  • Policy options and implications
globalisation propelled by ict kbe
Globalisation propelled by ICT, KBE
  • magnitude, scale, complexity crossborder transactions and interdependence
  • institution, process not globalisation ready
  • applied to urban industrial, not rural agricultural sectors
  • creative destruction of industries and jobs accentuated income, employment insecurity
  • spillover to agriculture, digital divide
globalisation ready
Globalisation ready
  • Northeast Asia vs Southeast Asia
  • Open, statist,export-led developmental state
  • Captured liberalisation, sins of commission, omission, poor design, implementation
  • Self-serving rent-seeking, vulnerability
  • Two levels of globalisation adjustment
    • economic competitiveness
    • socio-political opening and competition
slide4
AFC
  • FDI vs portfolio investment vs M&As
  • Local entrepreneurship, ownership
  • Weak recovery, reneging on corporate, financial reform
  • China, ASEAN4, South Asia did better
  • Lower population growth, ageing
  • Challenges for healthcare, social security and protection
growth and poverty reduction
Growth and poverty reduction
  • Open macroeconomic policies, mkt-friendly
  • Improve private sector, NGOs
  • State cannot do it alone
  • Free, open mkts vs corrupt gp of oligarchs
  • Misguided efforts to restrict trade, investment, income redistribution
  • Socio-political stability + democratisation
  • Rural poverty declines, urban poverty rises
rural agricultural opportunities
Rural agricultural opportunities
  • Commodity production, prices as buffer
  • Reabsorb unemployed and retrenched
  • Lost overseas remittances
  • Remiss not to extend, apply globalisation across rural agricultural sector
  • More balanced dualistic structure
    • Supply side: fuel, food, raw materials, labour, finance, saving, tax
    • Demand side: market, improvement,stimulate
types of poor
Types of poor
  • Structural changes vs cyclical, idiosyncratic
  • Distinguish: welfare and development, crisis response and development
  • Welfare for permanent destitute, people without assets, productive resources
    • recurrent cost to society
  • Development programmes for entrepreneurial poor
    • social and economic Investment
types of poor8
Types of poor
  • Temporary poor: welfare & investment
  • Unexpectedly fall into poverty
  • Emergency welfare component vs continuing commitment to investment
  • Long term sustainable development for entrepreneurial vs short term welfare relief
  • Formal government programmes vs existing institutionalised nonformal governance systems
types of poor9
Types of poor
  • Inflation,devaluation, purchasing power
  • Labour market adjusted with fall in earnings
  • Flight to quality of education, health, access
  • Causes of poverty:lack market opportunities
  • Assets to tap, take advantage of mkts
  • Neither voice nor capability
  • Political,social constraints, governance
  • Landlessness, land tenure
new poor
New poor
  • New poor: poor as result of major event
    • Economic crisis
    • Change in economic system
    • Political changes
    • Terrorist attacks
    • Natural disasters
  • Preventive, mitigation and coping strategies
  • Emphasise social safety nets, other short term programmes and delivery
new poor11
New poor
  • Old core poor in terms of absolute poverty
  • New poor with structural, globalisation , cyclical downturn and idiosyncratic events
    • new rich made poor, urban middle income class plunge
    • emergent fresh graduates graduating into nothing
    • migrant homecoming poor retrenched due to globalisation, cyclical idiosyncratic downturns
contrarian asian mode l
Contrarian Asianmodel
  • Communitarian, family soc networks
  • Rapid growth for poverty reduction
  • Pte social safety net provision by employers, community and families
  • State as provider-of-last resort, residualist, minimalist approach
  • Organic relationship between state and individual society as natural organism
economic vs social competitiveness
Economic vs social competitiveness
  • Govt spending on social services, education, health, safety nets, social security systems
  • Identify, protect vulnerable groups
  • Socio-political harmony and cohesiveness, religious and cultural tolerance
  • Social trust and social capital
  • Asia used to hubris, wealth not manage expectations, risks in unexpected calamities or punctuated equilibrium
urban industry vs rural agriculture
Urban-industry vs rural-agriculture
  • Social and community bases of social security and safety nets eroded by industry
  • Rural-urban migration, universal education
  • Europeans got it right in dualistic sector
  • Socialisation, social policy, social capital
  • Social trust, glue threatened by structural, technological and cyclical changes demographic transition and ageing
conclusion and policy implications
Conclusion and policy implications
  • Globalisation, ICT, KBE favourable
  • Seduced by rapid, high technology growth
  • Over concentrated on industrial policy
  • Corresponding neglect of agriculture
  • Socioeconomic of balanced dualistic model
  • Rural sector needs ICT, KBE for better production, marketing, distribution, R&D
  • Mkt incentives to reorient FDI, TNCs, HRD
conclusion and policy implications16
Conclusion and policy implications
  • Asian regionalism
  • China-ASEAN FTA, APT
  • Agriculture-led
    • domestic demand
    • high marginal propensity to consume
    • low marginal propensity to import
    • high saving, prudent spending
    • brand of village politics and democratisation
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