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Beef Cattle Outlook

Beef Cattle Outlook. Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock University of Georgia Florida Cattlemen’s Institute January 26, 2012. Overview. Recent Trends Outlook for 2012 and beyond Marketing Alternatives. 2010. Livestock Marketing Information Center

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Beef Cattle Outlook

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  1. Beef Cattle Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock University of Georgia Florida Cattlemen’s Institute January 26, 2012

  2. Overview • Recent Trends • Outlook for 2012 and beyond • Marketing Alternatives

  3. 2010 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  4. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  5. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

  6. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

  7. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  8. 5 things shaping markets today and for 2012

  9. 2011 Beef Cow Slaughter Ca. 3.8 million Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

  10. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

  11. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

  12. Source: DTN/Telvent

  13. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS

  14. What can we expect this year and next? Outlook for 2012 and beyond

  15. BEEF COWS THAT HAVE CALVEDJANUARY 1, 2011(1000 Head) Alaska Hawaii US Total Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

  16. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

  17. Meat supplies were slightly larger in 2011 but will be lower in 2012 Source: USDA-WASDE, January 2012 Report

  18. Tight Stocks Since 1995 in Feed Crops Despite Large Crops US Corn Supply and Demand

  19. Economic (Demand)Outlook • Positives • Low interest rates • Little inflation pressure • Generally strong corporate balance sheets • Recently improving hiring prospects • Negatives • Uncertainty over European situation • Federal debt/deficit • Political uncertainty

  20. Projected Prices 2011 and Beyond Source: USDA, LMIC and UGA

  21. Inputs, Profits and Risk Management for 2012

  22. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  23. Don’t look for fertilizer prices to go down

  24. Feedstuffs will be higher also

  25. Cost of production will be higher but should be manageable for most Range of Expected Prices

  26. There are opportunities to manage risk

  27. Beef Cattle Outlook Summary Fewer cows = less beef -less competing meats +slowly improving economy Higher Prices in 2011

  28. Beef Cattle Outlook R. Curt Lacy, Ph.D. Extension Economist-Livestock www.secattleadvisor.com

  29. Can we produce enough beef?

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