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Beef Cattle Outlook

Beef Cattle Outlook. Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock UGA Winter School Beef Update January 20, 2012. Overview. Recent Trends Outlook for 2012 and beyond Marketing Alternatives. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC.

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Beef Cattle Outlook

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  1. Beef Cattle Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock UGA Winter School Beef Update January 20, 2012

  2. Overview • Recent Trends • Outlook for 2012 and beyond • Marketing Alternatives

  3. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  4. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  5. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

  6. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

  7. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  8. 5 things shaping markets today and for 2012

  9. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

  10. Source: DTN/Telvent

  11. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS

  12. What can we expect this year and next? Outlook for 2012 and beyond

  13. Outlook • Positives • Low interest rates • Little inflation pressure • Generally strong corporate balance sheets • Recently improving hiring prospects • Negatives • Uncertainty over European situation • Federal debt/deficit • Political uncertainty

  14. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

  15. CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERSJANUARY 1, 2010 TO JANUARY 1, 2011(1000 Head) Alaska Hawaii US Total Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

  16. Declining cow numbers reflect lack of profitability in the sector

  17. Meat supplies will be slightly larger in 2011 but lower in 2012 Source: USDA-WASDE, December 2011 Report

  18. Tight Stocks Since 1995 in Feed Crops Despite Large Crops US Corn Supply and Demand

  19. Projected Prices 2011 and Beyond Source: USDA, LMIC and UGA

  20. Inputs, Profits and Risk Management for 2012

  21. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  22. Don’t look for fertilizer prices to go down

  23. Feedstuffs will be higher also

  24. Cost of production will be higher but should be manageable for most Range of Expected Prices

  25. There are opportunities to manage risk

  26. Beef Cattle Outlook R. Curt Lacy, Ph.D. Extension Economist-Livestock www.secattleadvisor.com

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