GCOS update CEOS Technical Workshop 11-12 September 2019 Fairbanks, Alaska, USA

1. GCOS updateCEOS Technical Workshop11-12 September 2019Fairbanks, Alaska, USA GCOS Secretariat Carolin Richter (remotepresentation)

2. Monitoring Water and Carbon Cycle, Energy balance and the Biosphere

3. Monitoring Water and Carbon Cycle, Energy balance and the Biosphere “Climate observations to be enhanced and continued into the future, to fully monitor the Earth’s water and carbon cycles, energy balance and biosphere.” Marrakesh, March 2019 Cross-cutting discussions: (a) Air/sea energy fluxes (b) Coastal-Land-Ocean-Water Fluxes (c) Extremes

4. Current Challenges and Activities to close the water cycle Summary for Policymakers: • “Observations of changes in ocean surface salinity also provide indirect evidence for changes in the global water cycle over the ocean (medium confidence).” • “Anthropogenic influences have likely affected the global water cycle since 1960 and contributed to the retreat of glaciers since the 1960s and to the increased surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet since 1993.” • “In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality (medium confidence).” “In general, scientists expect an increase of 2-3% of precipitation per degree warming. The increase of evapotranspiration excels this rate on a global average which will lead to general changes of precipitation-evaporation patterns and intensify inequalities in the global water supply. “ Marrakesh, March 2019 Main identified issues: • Turbulent flux of latent heat (evaporation) • Precipitation over the oceans poorly understood. • Fluxes from land are more difficult to observe on a global basis Taken from a presentation given at ESA PHI-LAB AI THEMATIC WORKSHOP: ATMOSPHERIC WATER CYCLE Frascati, 10th September 2019, Valentin Aich, GCOS Secretariat, WMO

5. Taken from a presentation given at ESA PHI-LAB AI THEMATIC WORKSHOP: ATMOSPHERIC WATER CYCLE Frascati, 10th September 2019, Valentin Aich, GCOS Secretariat, WMO GCOS IP Actions relatedtoObservingtheWater Cycle • T24: Allocate additional resources to extend the geodetic dataset • T25: Extend the glacier-front variation dataset both in space and in time • T32: Continuity of laser, altimetry and gravity satellite missions • T34: Mapping of seasonal soil freeze/thaw • T38: Improve snow and ice albedo products • T40: Production of climate data records for LAI, FAPAR and Albedo

6. IPCC Guidelines & Climate Change Impacts on the Biosphere • Goto: https://gcos.wmo.int/en/gcos-joint-panels-meeting/documents • Report Joint Panels Meeting, Marrakesh, March 2019 (GCOS-228) • Marrakesh Report • Section 5. Observational needs for the national GHG inventories • 2019 Refinement adopted by the IPCC at its 49th Plenary Session on 12 May 2019 • Emissions/removals assumed to be caused by changes to land cover/use. Therefore need to track land changes. Challenge to satellites. Section 7.5.Biosphere The UNFCCC has asked for reporting on emissions and removals of greenhouse gases including changes to terrestrial ecosystems, initially based on the 1996 revised IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.To date, there are no agreed global indicators of changes to the biosphere. What are the ground-based uncertainties? What level of in-situ calibration is required for eg. satellite data?

7. 2022 Update (UNFCCC Global Stocktake) Work plan and Guidelines for updating the GCOS 2015 Status Report and 2016 Implementation Plan, available since July 2019 from GCOS Secretariat.

8. Timeline Panels on-going monitoring of observations of ECV and IP actions Panels draft SR4 Public review Panels finalise SR4 Panels on-going monitoring of observations of ECV and IP actions Panels revise requirements Public review Panels consider issues arising: workshops on specific issues etc as needed. Panels draft IP4 Public review Panels finalise IP4 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2019 Jan 2023 MARCH: Panel Meetings Revise Requirements based on public review MARCH: Panel Meetings Agree revised SR and start drafting revised IP MARCH: Panel Meetings Agree revised IP OCTOBER: SC Meeting, provides guidance OCTOBER: Reviews progress SEPTEMBER: 4th Status Report published following approval by Sponsors and SC OCTOBER: Considers Conference outcomes OCTOBER: SC Meeting: 4th Implementation Plan published following approval by Sponsors and SC • The 4th Implementation Plan (IP4) needs to be published in October 2022 to be provided to the 2022 UNFCCC COP. • The 4th Status report (SR4) should be published before the GCOS Climate Observation Conference in October 2021 and provided to the 2021 UNFCCC COP. • These deadlines imply that the review of updated requirements needs to be in Jan-Feb 2020. This also allows time for any issues arising to be addressed before IP4 is drafted. • The Steering Committee (SC) in 2021 will be immediately after the co-located GCOS Climate Observation Conference OCTOBER: Climate Observation Conference (TBC) gcos.wmo.int 10/7/2019

9. Engagement with UN FCCC, based on 5 COP Decisions: Decision 8/CP.3 Development of observational networks of the climate system 1997 Decision 14/CP.4 Research and systematic observation 1998 Decision 11/CP.9 Global observing systems for climate 2003 Decision 9/CP.15 Systematic climate observations 2009 Decision 19/CP.22 Implementation of the global observing system for climate 2016

10. GCOS is recognized by UNFCCC since 1997 as the programme that leads the improvement of systematic observations to meet the needs of the Convention: unfccc.int/3581 Active engagement during COP: SBSTA Plenary - statement Earth Info Day – 3 December 2019 Informal Consultations with Parties Briefing Sessions to SBSTA Chairperson Side events Status Reports and Implementation Plans have been submitted to SBSTA. Regular reports to SBSTA on progress under the agenda item «Systematic Observations & Research» 27th session of the GCOS Steering Committee: 28 October – 31 October 2019 IOC of UNESCO, Paris