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“SPoRTers” at WFO Melbourne Dave Sharp – SOO david.sharp@noaa Pete Blottman – ITO peter.blottman@noaa Tony Cristaldi

“SPoRTers” at WFO Melbourne Dave Sharp – SOO david.sharp@noaa.gov Pete Blottman – ITO peter.blottman@noaa.gov Tony Cristaldi - Satellite Apps F/P tony.cristaldi@noaa.gov Matthew Volkmer – AWIPS/GFE matthew.volkmer@noaa.gov . SPoRT “Milestones” at MLB

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“SPoRTers” at WFO Melbourne Dave Sharp – SOO david.sharp@noaa Pete Blottman – ITO peter.blottman@noaa Tony Cristaldi

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  1. “SPoRTers” at WFO Melbourne • Dave Sharp – SOO • david.sharp@noaa.gov • Pete Blottman – ITO • peter.blottman@noaa.gov • Tony Cristaldi - Satellite Apps F/P • tony.cristaldi@noaa.gov • Matthew Volkmer – AWIPS/GFE • matthew.volkmer@noaa.gov

  2. SPoRT “Milestones” at MLB • Spring 2007 – CIRA 10km blended TPW product; • GOES 4km aviation products (fog depth, low cloud base) • Fall 2008 – MODIS 1km and 4km data ingested into AWIPS • Fall 2009 – Assimilation of MODIS SST data into locally run • mesoscale model (3km and 9km WRF) • Winter 2009/10 – Evaluation of MODIS FOG product • (Dearth of cases!)

  3. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 945 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT...SFC OBS SHOW A BIT OF AN UNUSUAL ORIENTATION TO THE SFC/ LOW LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH NOW APPEARS TO BE ORIENTED FROM AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA SEWD TO NR LAKE OKEE AND THEN SUA/PBI. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PRETTY MUCH SOUTH OF THE AREA...SFC WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT SSW-SW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. WINDS FROM ABOUT 1-2KM OFF THE DECK UP INTO THE MID LEVELS REMAIN NW/WNW...OWING TO THE THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG/OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST. H50 TEMPS HAVE COOLED A GOOD 1-2C OVER THE AREA SINCE MON...WHICH HAS STEEPENED LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND REDUCED THE VOTD TO THE L-M50S. PWATS ACROSS THE AREA ARE AVGING 1.8" GIVE OR TAKE. 10Z XMR RAOB SHOWED ~2.2" OWING TO SATURATED CONDS FROM ABOUT 860-560MB...WHICH I'M NOT BUYING INTO...UNLESS THE 15Z RAOB CONFIRMS THIS (DOUBTFUL SINCE NEITHER THE GOES OR CIRA TPW PRODUCTS SHOWED SUCH HIGH VALUES.

  4. WOW!!!

  5. MODIS passes over ECFL • 4 passes per day, but often times only 2 passes have NADIR close enough to provide useful high-resolution imagery (more often AQUA?) • Typical pass times (+/- 30 minutes)… • TERRA: 04, 17 UTC • AQUA: 07, 19 UTC

  6. Generally better GS/shelf water delineation compared to GSST

  7. COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1038 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2008 ATLC COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NM AMZ500-292030- SYNOPSIS FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NM- 1038 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2008 .SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY AS IT LIFTS NORTH- NORTHEAST TOWARD FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TOMORROW. .GULF STREAM HAZARDS...NONE. THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF MONDAY SEPTEMBER 29 AT 5 AM... 43 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF PONCE INLET. 31 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF PORT CANAVERAL. 21 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF SEBASTIAN INLET. 13 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF FORT PIERCE INLET. 10 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF SAINT LUCIE INLET.

  8. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 441 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2009 AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141- 144-147-102000-COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-INLAND VOLUSIA- NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER- OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD- 441 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT... VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED WEST OF THE TITUSVILLE AREA THIS MORNING DUE TO A SMOLDERING BRUSH FIRE ABOUT TWO MILES WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. MOTORISTS MAY EXPERIENCE SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY THROUGH 11 AM.

  9. For over a decade, our primary interest has been frequently updated depictions of the current atmospheric state (e.g., 15-minute ADAS), and rapid refresh updates of numerical predictions (e.g., WRF-EMS). These are often employed for Tactical Weather & Incident Support Operations, such as severe local storm events and Haiti Earthquake recovery activities. Analysis & Modeling Activities at WFO Melbourne ~ Benefits of Satellite Data Assimilation • Hot start WRF-EMS model runs with LAPS and ADAS • 2-way 9km / 3km ARW nest, 8 times per day • Incident support, 5km domain over Hispaniola, 4 times per day • Improved surface water temperatures • MODIS vs. 8km GOES data • Improved land surface information • LIS surface data vs. model background • We look forward to more frequent • LIS updates to support MLB rapid • update strategy.

  10. Analysis & Modeling Activities at WFO Melbourne ~ Benefits of Satellite Data Assimilation

  11. Other Modeling Interests: • Atmospheric Dispersion (HySPLIT) • Atmosphere / Ocean coupled wave • models (WABED, SWAN) • Ensemble runs (temporal) • Future: • Moveable domain high resolution • runs (Incident support services) • Lightning initiation • Ensemble runs (Physics option • dependent) Analysis & Modeling Activities at WFO Melbourne ~ Benefits of Satellite Data Assimilation

  12. Total Lightning Information • Use LDAR(II) since 1994; total lightning signal • Severe Storm Discernment • Aviation Products & Services • Incident support; public statements • Courtesy NASA/KSC & 45th WS • Separate workstation; aging hardware; data line available through • the end of the shuttle program • A desire to have (near) real-time processed data • ported to AWIPS (like WFO Huntsville) • Data feed through MSFC to SRH to MLB • Want to keep raw data feed (somehow) • to retain temporal resolution and • vertical resolution; display solution • still to be determined.

  13. Total Lightning Information Tornado Outbreak of February 22-23,1998 Lightning Jump Source Densities

  14. Collaborative/local modifications/ improvements Scales: SST K – > F TPW from mm – > in Fog depth from m – > ft Color enhancement tables – SST/TPW

  15. “SPoRTers” at WFO Melbourne • Dave Sharp – SOO • david.sharp@noaa.gov • Pete Blottman – ITO • peter.blottman@noaa.gov • Tony Cristaldi - Satellite Apps F/P • tony.cristaldi@noaa.gov • Matthew Volkmer – AWIPS/GFE • matthew.volkmer@noaa.gov

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