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Weather Anomalies & Extremes in Late Medieval Hungary: The Role of Evidence

Weather Anomalies & Extremes in Late Medieval Hungary: The Role of Evidence. Andrea Kiss. Short outline. Written evidence – source types Weather events reported: some preliminary results Indirect evidence: floods Other environmental evidence related.

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Weather Anomalies & Extremes in Late Medieval Hungary: The Role of Evidence

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  1. Weather Anomalies & Extremes in Late Medieval Hungary: The Role of Evidence Andrea Kiss

  2. Short outline • Written evidence – source types • Weather events reported: some preliminary results • Indirect evidence: floods • Other environmental evidence related

  3. Flood-endangered areas prior to late 19th century: ca. 25% of present Hungary, 13-16% - historical Hungary

  4. Written evidence – New database • Almost complete archival collection in Budapest on Medieval Hungary • Few contemporary domestic narratives – better from the 1440s • - Memoirs: very few • Account books: ca. continuous from 1440 - e.g. Bratislava • From late 13 th c: legal documents: charters (and private letters) – high resolution in space & time Bratislava accounts: bridgemaster’s accounts

  5. Types and quality of applied sources

  6. Source-description Weather indices: mainly narratives, partly charters Floods: ca. 90% - charters; ca. 10% narratives and accounts CHARTERS: legal evidence, contemporary Mainly: perambulations/reambulations – settling/resettling boundaries; partly other types - Advantage: reliability, dating, location - Disadvantage: only some magnitudes, no consequences, no duration of event; lots of individual cases (e.g. 1 snowy or rainy day, flood)

  7. I. Weather indices: mainly countries+regions

  8. Weather events reported – prelimilary results 1. • MORE on Winter (& Autumn) • Temperature – mainly negative values – some months: • 11th c: 1074. feb: -2? (E-Great Hungarian Plain) • 13th c: 1242. jan: -3? (whole winter: -2 or -3) (whole country) • 14th c: 1342. sep: -2 or -3 (NE-Great Hungarian Plain); 1358. jan: min. -1 (Central Slovakia) • 15th c: 1426/1427 winter: -3 (S-Transylvania, Valachia); 1436-1437 winter: min. 1 month: -2 (Pest-Buda); 1440. jan-feb: min. -2 (Bratislava); 1458. feb: -2 (Esztergom-Pest-Buda); 1463. dec-1464. jan: -2 or -3 (Bosnia); 1464. feb: -3? (whole country); 1476. dec: -3 (Kraina- Pest-Buda, W-Hungary); 1482. dec: min. -2 (Hungary); 1484. jan-feb: -3 (Hungary); 1490-1491. winter: -2 or -3 (N- Hungary–SE-Slovakia); 1493. feb: min. -2? (S-Hungary-N-Bosnia); 1499. jan: min. -2? (Bratislava).

  9. Weather events reported – preliminary results 2. • Winter (& Autumn) • Precipitation - positive: • 13th c: 1242. jan (or whole winter): 2 or 3 (whole country) • 14th c: 1359. nov: min. 1 (NE-Hungary) • 15th c: 1426/1427 winter: 3 (S-Transylvania, Valachia); 1440. jan-feb: min. 2 (Bratislava); 1476. dec: 3 (Kraina-Pest- Buda, W-Hungary); 1490-1491. winter/1month?: min. 2?? (Eger-Kosice: N-Hungary – SE-Slovakia)

  10. Weather events reported – preliminary results 3. • LESS in Summer (& Spring) • Precipitation - negative: • 14th c: 1362. march(at least): -3 (Trogir, Dalmatia) • 15th c: 1474. spring&summer: -3 (whole country); 1478. march-aug: -3 (Hungary); 1493. spring, summer: -3 (whole country) • Temperature – positive-negative: • 14th c: 1392: spring?: min. -1 (Bratislava)

  11. II. FLOODS mainly charters, partly narratives, accounts POSSIBLE • dating (mainly daily resolution, sometimes yearly) • localisation (village, waterflow – sometimes only country level) • periods of higher intensities or more extremes RARELY POSSIBLE • impacts, some consequences of floods: e.g. 1430s – Danube pontoon; flood types (flash-flood, iceflood) NOT POSSIBLE • duration of event, beginning and end of event

  12. Floods/inundations in river-catchments

  13. Documented floods in the 13-15th-century Hungary

  14. Danube and Tisza catchments (Danube excluded)

  15. Late medieval floods (Danube excluded) - seasonality

  16. Seasonality of recorded Danube flood events 1 – flood; 2 – great flood; ×only the issue-date is given (litt. prorogatorie)

  17. Seasonality of floods – when possible to detect

  18. Floods of the 1340s reported in charter evidence

  19. Floods and the Danube – in the long run • Reference on earlier floods – no exact dating is possible, but higher flood frequencies (e.g. before 1250s, before 1309, 1340s, 1420s, 1430s) • Perceptions of the usual: flood and ice-cover: • flood: beatification process of Saint Margaret (1276): floods (on Danube) usually occur in April • Danube: massive ice-cover in winter: Rogerius (1242): unusual; N. Oláh (1520-1530): happens every year; 2nd half of the 18th century: usual phenomenon

  20. Other environmental evidence related • Vine cultivation: Bratislava (W-Slovakia): (1348, 1392), 1430s: vinestocks and harvest damaged by frost – several vineyards deserted (comparison: 1740s) • High prices, need, hunger, famine: - great famine during the Mongol Invasion (1242) - no major crisis (famine) in the following decades - 1312-15(1316)-hunger+high prices; 1342-43; 1348; 1355-58; 1381-83-need; 1420s: high prices+hunger, 1430s-need, 1500-hunger • Special regulations: 1364, 1433, 1490: open up the borders for food (mainly grain is mentioned) export (no tolls and border taxes – mainly for special export) – neigbouring areas in need • Locust-invasions: e.g. 1194, 1338

  21. Conclusion • Sporadic temperature and precipitation indices – more based on narratives – 15th century • Most information on floods – based on charters • Periods of possible higher flood frequences detected • In many cases possible to go to seasonal level

  22. Thank you for your attention

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