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The effects of ICT investment on productivity in Spain

The effects of ICT investment on productivity in Spain. Prepared for the NEREC conference on Electronic Communications . Madrid, 11 September 2009. Introduction. Motivation. Crisis and competitiveness Public policy sometimes in opposite directions.

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The effects of ICT investment on productivity in Spain

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  1. The effects of ICT investment on productivity in Spain Prepared for the NEREC conference on Electronic Communications Madrid, 11 September 2009

  2. Introduction Motivation • Crisis and competitiveness • Public policy sometimes in opposite directions • What is the total effect of ICT capital on productivity? The issue

  3. The economic framework Logs, increments and CRS Contribution to LP Contribution to VAG Perfect competition in input and output markets

  4. Spillovers in production Indirect effect of ICT through its impact TFP Notwithstanding Stiroh (2002)

  5. Earlier studies in Spain • Several studies measuring the relationship between ICT, output growth and productivity • Most of them use the GAF approach: • Positive contribution to output and labour productivity growth • Mixed evidence on the contribution to TFP • Some econometric studies: • Positive effect on TFP of the stock of technological capital

  6. Empirical analysis • Results • Conclusions

  7. The relationship between ICT and TFP A first look • TFP reached its max value in 1984 and performed very poorly after 1989 • No clear relationship between TFP and ICT capital growth • TFP and ICT capital growth present similar movements before 1995 • But, no apparent relationship afterwards … the relationship (if any) between ICT capital growth and TFP seems to differ before and after 1995

  8. Specification Preferred specification controls for ICT capital growth Non-ICT capital growth R&D effort Consider different impact before and after 1995 OLS and alternative estimates (FE, IV) spillover Other relevant factors TFPit = ait + ICTICTit + NICTNICTit + kXitk + it

  9. Results Positive and significant effect Positive and significant effect * Significant at 10% level, ** significant at 5% level and *** significant at 1% level Negative spillover

  10. Conclusions Our analysis has limitations • More attention to dynamics • Separate impact of different ICT components • Account for the role of other potentially relevant factors • Regulations • International technological spillovers • Degree of competition Summary • Does ICT exerts a spillover on TFP? • We find a positive relationship between TFP and ICT capital growth, at least, up to 1995 • Absence of spillover or a positive impact is still to come • Results confirm the importance of R&D in the evolution of TFP

  11. Frontier Economics Limited in Europe is a member of the Frontier Economics network, which consists of separate companies based in Europe (Brussels, Cologne, London and Madrid) and Australia (Melbourne & Sydney). The companies are independently owned, and legal commitments entered into by any one company do not impose any obligations on other companies in the network. All views expressed in this document are the views of Frontier Economics Limited.

  12. FRONTIER ECONOMICS EUROPE LTD. BRUSSELS|COLOGNE|LONDON | MADRID Frontier Economics Ltd, Calle Larra 12, Madrid, 28004 Tel. + 34 91 591 4050 Fax. + 34 91 445 6679 www.frontier-economics.com

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