A TWO-LEVEL ELECTRICITY DEMAND MODEL. Evaluation of the Connecticut Time-of-Day Pricing Test. By J.A Hausman , M. Kinnucan , D. McFadden Presented By Julius Kimutai Abstract.
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A TWO-LEVEL ELECTRICITY DEMAND MODEL. Evaluation of the Connecticut Time-of-Day Pricing Test.
By J.A Hausman, M. Kinnucan, D. McFadden
By Julius Kimutai
A two-stage budgeting model is developed for electricity demand where consumption is treated as a different commodity. The model is applied to TOD price situations and also declining block price situations. Then the model is tested in a forecasting application to TOD customers.
Two level budgeting procedure imposes separability between electricity consumption and the consumption of other commodities. The idea behind the approach is that the household decides the total to be spent on electricity along with how much to spend on other commodities.
Estimation contd.They use the first level demand to construct the price index which enters the second level daily consumption equations. They validate the model by performing forecasts using estimated coefficients . The peak level demand forecasts do fairly well in forecasting the relative load curve. The intermediate forecasts are less successful with three out of nine periods having relatively large forecast errors.